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The Paris Agreement 2015 as a Primer for Developing Nigerian Off-grid Solar Electricity

Document Cited authorities 1 Cited in Related
Vincent
Pages426-451
Date01 August 2018
DOI10.3366/ajicl.2018.0240
Published date01 August 2018
Author
INTRODUCTION

The Paris Climate Change Agreement 2015 amassed diverse commentaries from renewable energy proponents and environmentalists. For environmentalists, it represents a vindication of environmental multilateralism given that for the first time in the history of international climate change law, over 196 sovereign states voluntarily subscribed to be bound by a treaty in furtherance of mitigation of climate change.1 In the same vein, renewable energy promoters applaud it for being the needed catalyst that will exfoliate greenhouse gases from the atmosphere by ushering in a new age dominated by renewable energy and other clean energy sources.2

The Nigerian government has joined the movement by signing the Agreement3 and undertaking to develop off-grid renewable solar electricity of 13,000 gigawatts by 2030 in their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs).4 The Nigerian INDC has been communicated as the Nigerian Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) when Nigeria ratified the Paris Agreement.5

These targeted off-grid solar electricity would be functional in combating the electricity poverty in Nigeria. Some studies by renowned international bodies are pointers that only 45.6 per cent of the entire Nigerian population had access to electricity in 2016.6 Even the population that has access to electricity get an average of four hours of erratic supply daily.7 The electricity problem is largely due to the Nigerian electricity grid. The Nigerian electricity sector is centralised given that electricity is generated in large gas and hydro power stations.8 Consequently, it is distributed to consumers across Nigeria through a national grid.9 This grid is unsuitable for the electrification of 65 per cent of the Nigerian rural population because they are in remote rural areas.10 Secondly, the electricity infrastructures used in Nigeria are old and not adequately maintained.11 As a result, they frequently break down.12 Furthermore, these infrastructures are targets for vandals.13 Owing to the interconnectivity of the grid, regular breakdown or vandalism against a part of the infrastructure disrupts the quality of supply of power from the national grid.14 Hence, if a one hundred percent electrification rate were to be achieved, Nigeria would have to resort to decentralised electricity which dispenses with the need for the use of a national grid. Thus, the targeted off-grid solar electricity is a welcome development.

What is more, the current electricity plants in Nigeria are generating an average of 2,687MW per hour as at 13 of December 2016.15 This is negligible compared to the 200,000MW per hour estimated to be the electricity needs of the entire Nigerian citizenry.16 Consequently, developing the targeted off-grid solar electricity which provides 13,000MW per hour17 would go a long way in meeting the above stipulated electricity needs of Nigerians beyond the current generation capacity.18

Furthermore, the targeted off-grid solar would undoubtedly mitigate the emission of greenhouse gases from the Nigerian electricity sector. The use of a centralised, gas-powered electricity grid in Nigeria19 exacerbates the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) which is at the heart of the global problem of climate change.20 Firstly, the Nigerian domestic refineries emit GHGs in the course of processing the natural gas used for electricity generation.21 Secondly, GHGs are emitted during the use of gas to produce electricity by the power plants in Nigeria.22 Again, those who do not have access to the electricity grid exploit wood to meet their electricity needs.23 This leads to deforestation and wood burning which increases the accumulation of GHGs in the atmosphere.24 Thirdly, those who have access to the intermittent electricity supply from the grid use GHG-emitting self-generators25 to supplement the unsteady electricity supply.26 Consequently, developing the targeted solar would go a long way to engineering a paradigm shift away from these GHGs emission pathways in Nigeria.27

While more than just numbers, the usefulness of these targeted off-grid solar in mitigating climate change and combating the electricity poverty in Nigeria is contingent on their actual development. Whether or not such development would eventually happen is mostly determined by the strength of the provisions of the Paris Agreement 2015 relevant to securing such enforcement.28 It is felicitous to mention that the Paris Agreement does not have a punitive enforcement mechanism. Regardless, its provisions yield some political and legal tools which commentaries posit would secure the implementation of NDCs which in due course includes the targeted solar electricity in Nigerian INDCs.29 These tools include a compliance mechanism,30 a global stocktake by the conference of the parties31 and publication of NDCs which will generate pressure from civil societies.32 The question is: are the above tools adequate to the extent that they will secure the development of the targeted 13,000GW off-grid solar electricity in Nigeria? This article is an examination of this question with a view to establishing that there are several factors that would render inadequate the functionalities of these tools in securing the implementation of this target in Nigeria. There are legal commentaries on the prospects and possibilities of these tools globally. However, no article has considered these in the Nigerian context. As a result, this article is certainly a landmark in terms of originality.

 AN OVERVIEW OF NIGERIA'S OBLIGATIONS PRE-PARIS CLIMATE CHANGE AGREEMENT

The report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 198833 which confirmed the problem with climate change and its reverberations34 culminated in the adoption of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in June 1992.35 The UNFCCC is the first international instrument that contains measures adopted by states globally (including Nigeria36) in response to the problem of climate change.37 The objectives of the UNFCCC were to ‘achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.’38

Accordingly, the UNFCCC enjoins member states to adopt measures to ‘promote and cooperate in the development of technologies in all relevant sectors, including the energy.’39 The UNFCCC did not define what these ‘technologies … that control, reduce or prevent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases’ are.40 However, during the third meeting of the COP in Geneva, there was a consensus that renewable energy, which includes electricity, was the first technological option for climate change mitigation.41 In consideration, it was expected that the above stance would drive member states to adopt national measures to develop renewable energy technologies.42

Contrary to expectations,43 the UNFCCC did not result in Nigeria adopting and enforcing any national targets on renewable energy which includes off-grid solar electricity given that the above provision was whittled down by several other provisions. One such provision is that the developing member states' performance of their obligations under the convention is contingent on the extent of the effectiveness of developed member countries in providing financial44 and technology aid45 to developing member states such as Nigeria.46 Such aid was not readily coming forth in a manner that would inform ambitious targets for the development of off-grid solar electricity in Nigeria.47 Consequently, Nigeria submitted its national communication to the UNFCCC secretariat in 200348 and 2014 respectively.49 It did not contain any target or national measures to develop renewable electricity, including off-grid solar.50

The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in 1997 by member states to flesh out the provisions of the UNFCCC.51 It created an individual mitigation target for developed member states and mandates them to mitigate their emissions of greenhouse gases within the confines of these targets.52 It does not create any binding commitments for developing member states, including Nigeria.53 However, it provides for a Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) designated for enabling developed member states to achieve their targets by undertaking clean energy projects in developing member states.54 This mechanism is relevant to the central theme in this article only to the extent that it created a prospect for developed member states to develop off-grid solar electricity CDM projects in Nigeria.55 This prospect did not materialise to any great degree because of several factors, including the poor investment climate.56 The era of the Kyoto Protocol will come to an end in 2020.57 Given that such a poor investment climate in Nigeria still subsists,58 the chances that any off-grid solar electricity project will be undertaken in Nigeria under the auspices of the CDM by 2020 is very slim.

Aside from the inability of the UNFCCC and Kyoto to contribute to the development of off-grid solar electricity in Nigeria, ‘they were widely regarded as inadequately implemented’ by the standard of the overall objective of the UNFCCC.59 Consequently, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UNFCCC adopted another climate change agreement in Paris, December 2015.60 This new Agreement is contained in the Paris Legal outcome, an amalgamation of a Decision of the COP adopting the Agreement and the Agreement itself.61 The Paris Decision is a decision of the COP adopting and detailing the Paris Agreement.62 On the other hand, the Paris Climate Change Agreement is a treaty within the context of international law.63

 NIGERIA'S COMMITMENTS UNDER THE PARIS CLIMATE CHANGE AGREEMENT

The Paris Agreement ‘… aims to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change … holding the increase in the global average temperature to well...

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