The world to come: what we can do now
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1108/eb045373 |
| Published date | 01 April 1995 |
| Pages | 269-278 |
| Date | 01 April 1995 |
| Author | David Raitt |
| Subject Matter | Information & knowledge management,Library & information science |
Article
The world to
come:
what we can
do now*
David Raitt
c/o
Learned Information (Europe)
Ltd,
Woodside,
Hinksey
Hill,
Oxford OX1 5AU,UK
E-mail:
draitt@estec.esa.nl
Abstract: The paper will first discuss certain sociocultural trends such as
population
growth,
increased life
expectancy,
the labour force and education,
and look at how these are affecting society
as
a
whole.
Such trends are linked with
the
global economy and the industrial sector as well as the
environment.
The
consequences of such trends are a number of problems which face
the
world in
the future, particularly in developing
countries.
These problems include
overpopulation, levelling off of food supplies, diseases, natural
resources
depletion, and conflicts and clashes in areas where immigration and cultural
differences
exist.
Such problems are discussed together with their implications.
Some ideas are then given on how these future difficulties might be
overcome;
and
it
is
clear that information will have an enormous role to play in
this
respect.
Topics
covered comprise global awareness
(for
example of the
environment,
birth
control,
women's
rights,
healthcare) through education and information;
frontierless transactions; global information
access,
dissemination,
communication and transfer of knowledge; knowledge build-up and transfer
through CDROM archiving of latent skills and know-how; and the like.
1.
Introduction
We are living in an era of unprece-
dented change and opportunity. The
Soviet Union has been dismembered,
Europe's integration is progressing,
South Africa has swept away apart-
heid, Mexico and Canada
have
joined
economic forces with the USA, South
East Asia
is
becoming the world's oys-
ter. In fact, South East Asia has seen
the best economic performance in the
recent past and seems to hold the best
prospects for the future. Indeed, it is
generally accepted that between now
and the end of the decade, Asia as a
whole will account for half the growth
in world trade. Much of this growth
will come from intra-Asia trade, with
an Asian consumer market of over one
billion people by the end of the millen-
nium.
Social equity and stability, a high
savings rate, flexible social and eco-
nomic
policies,
a
well-educated labour
force and better exploitation of human
capital, plus a positive attitude to
work, as well as the technological ad-
vances of the countries in the region,
have all contributed to the success of
Asia.
Such trade and economic growth
draw attention to the area; attention
means interest and investment; invest-
ment leads to prosperity; prosperity
provides a better life for people —
witness Dubai, for example. But not
everywhere has such growth and con-
sequent attention. Take Africa, for in-
stance.
Various political, economic and so-
ciocultural factors and trends affect
life-styles, society, indeed civilisation.
What this paper will do
is
to note some
of the major sociocultural trends ap-
parent today and discuss, in general
terms,
several of the consequences
which result from them. Some aspects
of how these
issues
might
be
alleviated
somewhat, particularly by education,
awareness and information, are then
put forward.
2.
sociocultural trends
The major sociocultural trends which
are likely to affect the world over the
next 25 years or so can be viewed in
terms of population growth and in-
creased life expectancy, as well as the
labour force and working conditions,
and education. The trends are linked
with the economy, the industrial sector
and the environment, and also have
implications for
the
emergence of con-
flicts in areas where immigration and
cultural differences are rampant.
2.
1. Population growth
In so far as population growth is con-
cerned, less developed countries as a
group are expected to experience a
much higher growth during the next
decade than developed countries,
where population growth is approach-
ing zero. The situation in the develop-
ing regions themselves, however,
differs remarkably. Population growth
is expected to decline sharply in the
dynamic Asian economies which are
catching up — economically as well
as demographically — with devel-
oped countries. The opposite is antici-
pated to be true for the Middle East and
North Africa region,
as
well as for
sub-
Saharan Africa. Due to the nature of
the process, changes in population
growth are very slow compared to the
underlying demographic indicators
* This paper was given as the Conference
Keynote Address.
The Electronic Library, Vol. 13, No. 4, August 1995 269
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