Thinking ‘Globally’ about Peace in Northern Ireland
| Author | Michael Cox |
| Published date | 01 February 1998 |
| Date | 01 February 1998 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9256.00061 |
| Subject Matter | Blind Alleys |
Thinking `globally'Thinking `globally'
about peace in Northernabout peace in Northern
IrelandIreland
Michael Cox
Though many in Britain and Northern Ire-
land remain highly sceptical about the longer
term intentions of the Provisional IRA, it is
clear that its cease®re of August 1994 repre-
sented a major turning-point in Irish history.
The nature of the IRA decision however
remains shrouded in controversy ± made all
the more controversial of course by its
resumption of military activities followed
eighteen months later by the announcement
of another cease®re. This article seeks to
throw light on the original IRA decision by
exploring some of the international pressures
which led the organization to take the deci-
sion it did in 1994. While in no way seeking
to downplay the importance of `internal' fac-
tors such as war weariness and the Anglo-
Irish agreement, it is suggested here that the
decision itself makes little sense unless it is
situated within a wider global context. It is
also implied that if analysts had been more
sensitive to the in¯uence of the `global' upon
the `local' con¯ict in Northern Ireland, they
may have been less surprised than they were
by the IRA announcement.
It has been observed that `social science has
always been better equipped to predict con-
tinuity than change' (Breslauer, 1992, p.
164). Certainly judged by the almost con-
sistent failure of social scientists to anticipate
the novel or the unexpected in the twentieth
century, this argument would appear to be
self evidently true. Not for nothing is the
dismal science of academic prediction called
`dismal' by its critics. But perhaps we should
not be too surprised or too harsh. After all,
the average social scientist is taught not to
speculate about the future on the apparently
reasonable grounds that in an uncertain
world of imperfect knowledge it is pointless
trying to look round historical corners. Thus
if the intellectual community as a whole
failed ± as it did ± to anticipate the world
depression, the long boom of the post-
war period, the political upheavals of the
1960s, the rise of radical Islam, the end
of the Cold War and the collapse of the
USSR, then no matter. For according to the
dominant wisdom, prediction in general and
predicting major change in particular, is not
Politics (1998) 18(1) pp. 57±63
#Political Studies Association 1998. Published by Blackwell Publishers, 108 Cowley Road, Oxford OX4 1JF, UK
and 350 Main Street, Malden, MA 02148, USA. 57
Michael Cox, University of Wales, Aberystwyth.
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