Time pressures under international crises reconsidered: Integrating real and experimental time
| Author | Hiroyuki Hoshiro |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/20578911221108798 |
| Published date | 01 December 2022 |
| Date | 01 December 2022 |
| Subject Matter | Theoretical Endeavors |
Time pressures under
international crises
reconsidered: Integrating real
and experimental time
Hiroyuki Hoshiro
The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Abstract
This study discusses the relationship between the time pressure faced by policymakers when an
international military-security crisis breaks out and the consequences of the crisis. If a policy is
decided too quickly, decision-makers do not have the ability to consider enough alternatives
and information, which lowers the chances of averting a crisis. Moreover, if too much time is
taken in deliberating, an international crisis may heat up and the chance to potentially come up
with an optimal policy at the right time may be missed. The article takes a mixed methods
approach using quantitative data and three case studies. The International Crisis Behavior (ICB,
version 13) dataset was used to identify the time spent in making policy decisions to respond
to an international crisis and the consequences of the crisis, for the period 1918–2013. Also,
three actual international crises were analyzed: Russia’s annexation of Crimea and Donbas, the
Cuban Missile Crisis, and the Korean War. The quantitative results and the case analyses indicate
that a third alternative, a medium time span, allows for careful deliberation and sufficient informa-
tion gathering to occur, and decision-makers may thereby avoid an international crisis.
Keywords
foreign policy decision-making, international crisis, time pressure
Introduction
How do time pressures confronting policymakers affect crisis outcomes in the event of an inter-
national political emergency? Many previous studies of psychology and international politics
have equated time constraints with stress and considered ways to respond to international crises,
Corresponding author:
Hiroyuki Hoshiro, Institute of Social Science, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan.
Email: hoshiro@iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp
Theoretical Endeavors
Asian Journal of Comparative Politics
2022, Vol. 7(4) 1268–1281
© The Author(s) 2022
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DOI: 10.1177/20578911221108798
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