Too much to choose from? The long-term effects of political fragmentation on electoral turnout
| Author | Piotr Zagórski |
| Published date | 01 August 2022 |
| Date | 01 August 2022 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/0263395720971210 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
https://doi.org/10.1177/0263395720971210
Politics
2022, Vol. 42(3) 358 –375
© The Author(s) 2021
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DOI: 10.1177/0263395720971210
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Too much to choose from?
The long-term effects of
political fragmentation on
electoral turnout
Piotr Zagórski
Autonomous University of Madrid, Spain
Abstract
How does political socialization in a highly fragmented political scene affect propensity to vote?
This article focusses on the long-term relationship between the number of political parties and the
propensity to turn out in 96 parliamentary elections between 1996 and 2016 of nearly 100,000
individuals in 31 countries. Although intuitively more options might be expected to translate into
a greater likelihood of participating in elections, existing research claims that high levels of party
fragmentation instead lead to ‘choice overload’ and alienate citizens from voting. Building on the
theory of voting as a habit, I show that early adulthood political socialization in a highly fragmented
context leaves a footprint of non-voting in subsequent elections. This finding is especially relevant
given the recent significant rise in fragmentation of most party systems in Europe, which in light
of this research could mean a further decline in turnout rates in many countries in the future.
Keywords
effective number of electoral parties, electoral turnout, party system fragmentation, political
socialization, voting habit
Received: 7th April 2020; Revised version received: 2nd October 2020; Accepted: 8th October 2020
Introduction
It is a common place in the literature that electoral turnout depends to a great extent on
the kind of choice people are offered in elections, and that choice is structured by the
party system (Blais, 2000: 30). However, the findings and theories about the impact of
party system fragmentation on turnout are contradictory. In some accounts, more parties
equals higher mobilization and thus higher turnout, whereas it could also lead to uncer-
tainty, information deficits and lower turnout. The results of empirical tests of the effects
of the number of parties on aggregate levels of turnout are inconclusive – some find a
positive impact, others negative, while most do not find any significant effect at all
(Cancela and Geys, 2016; Geys, 2006; Stockemer, 2017).
Corresponding author:
Piotr Zagórski, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Autonomous University of
Madrid, C/ Marie Curie, 1, Ciudad Universitaria de Cantoblanco, 28049 Madrid, Spain.
Email: piotr.zagorski@predoc.uam.es
971210POL0010.1177/0263395720971210PoliticsZagórski
research-article2021
Article
Zagórski 359
However, existing studies on the effects of fragmentation have focussed on the short-
term impact at the aggregate level, by correlating the number of parties at an election and
turnout rates in that particular election, or the following one. We know much less about
the effects of fragmentation in the long run, and how this affects propensity to vote at
individual level. In Smets and van Ham’s (2013) meta-analysis of an embarrassment of
riches, which analysed a number of factors affecting individual-level propensity to vote,
they showed that extant research has produced equally mixed evidence regarding the
short-term effects of fragmentation. This article aims to fill this gap by focussing on the
long-term effects of fragmentation on individual propensity to turn out in subsequent
elections.
Building on the theories of voting as a habit (Franklin, 2004; Plutzer, 2002) and of
political socialization (Jennings and Niemi, 1968; Neundorf and Smets, 2017), this article
assesses the effects of the number of political parties in the first elections at which one is
eligible to vote (i.e. crucial for the formation of voting habit) on the propensity to partici-
pate in subsequent elections. Following the idea that the effects of contextual-level vari-
ables on turnout are conditional on individual-level characteristics,1 I test whether
fragmentation especially affects the likelihood to turn out of the young. The socializing
effects of many contextual-level variables (e.g. election competitiveness, electoral sys-
tem, general turnout rates, and polarization) have already been tested (Franklin, 2004;
Smets and Neundorf, 2014). This study focusses, for the first time to my knowledge, on
the long-term effects of fragmentation; thereby aiming to contribute to a rich body of lit-
erature that researches the imprint that an individual’s first election leaves on future turn-
out decisions.
Drawing on Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (2018) Integrated Modules
Dataset (CSES IMD) data on 96 parliamentary elections between 1996 and 2016 of nearly
100,000 individuals in 31 countries, I show – using multilevel fixed and random effects
logistic regression models – that exposure to a high number of parties in the first elections
at which one is eligible to vote leaves a footprint of non-participation in the case of both
Western and Central and Eastern Europe (CEE); with an especially strong effect for the
latter. The results are robust to several tests: including measures of disproportionality and
polarization in contemporary elections, and formative ones. This continues to be the case
when controlling for contemporary fragmentation; assessing parliamentary fragmenta-
tion, and not electoral; limiting the sample to more recent cohorts; including older citi-
zens socialized under authoritarian rule; and to sensitivity checks of the age at which the
effect is strongest. These findings are especially relevant given the recent significant rise
in fragmentation of most party systems in Europe, as one of its unforeseen long-term
consequences might be a further decline in turnout, which has already been falling for
decades in many democracies.
Theoretical framework and hypotheses
Party system fragmentation and turnout
What influence does the number of political parties have on electoral turnout? There are
competing theoretical arguments in favour of both a positive and negative relationship.
As mentioned above, intuition suggests that the more options one has to choose from, the
higher the likelihood of participation. More parties maximize choices on the ballot paper
and increase the probability of voters identifying with a particular party (Geys and
Heyndels, 2006). For instance, Seidle and Miller (1976) showed that turnout was higher
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