Treaties, Collective Responses and the Determinants of Aggregate Support for European Integration
| Author | Sabrí Çíftçí |
| Published date | 01 December 2005 |
| Date | 01 December 2005 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/1465116505057818 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
Treaties, Collective
Responses and the
Determinants of Aggregate
Support for European
Integration
Sabrí Çíftçí
Florida State University, USA
ABSTRACT
Scholarly research investigating the determinants of support
for European integration at the individual level is abundant,
but the analysis of aggregate-level indicators is relatively
less developed. This study examines the collective
responses of the Europeans to different environments of
integration by using a multiple interrupted time series
design with panel data. The results suggest that the context
of integration after important treaties changes the aggregate
support for integration significantly. More importantly, the
analysis provides evidence challenging some findings of
earlier studies with regard to the impact of aggregate-level
indicators of support for integration.
469
European Union Politics
DOI: 10.1177/1465116505057818
Volume 6 (4): 469–492
Copyright© 2005
SAGE Publications
London, Thousand Oaks CA,
New Delhi
KEY WORDS
aggregate support
collective responses
integration periods
multiple interrupted time
series
treaties
Students of public opinion have investigated the various aspects of public
support for European integration. In contrast to the well-developed state of
this research agenda with respect to individual-level attitudes, the study of
the aggregate-level dynamics of public support lags behind. Do people
support European integration in the aggregate? Does collective support
change over time? If yes, what are the correlates of aggregate support? In this
article, I aim to explain support for European integration at the aggregate
level to assess the impact of the integration environment on the collective
opinion of Europeans.
There are at least three reasons that make the analysis of aggregate public
opinion relevant. First, many scholars have examined aggregate public
opinion in the American context in addition to the large individual-level
research efforts investigating the implications of an uninformed citizenry. As
for the European Union (EU), despite the abundance of research exploring
the individual-level determinants of support for integration, analysis at the
aggregate level is somewhat less developed.1
The second reason is that some significant events that have an aggregate
nature, such as European Parliament (EP) elections and referendums, make
the analysis of aggregate preferences relevant. Although voting is an individ-
ual act, the outcome of voting either in EP elections or in referendums is deter-
mined by an aggregation process. Considering the low turnout rates in the
2004 elections for the European Parliament and the negative votes in some
referendums (e.g. the referendum in Denmark following the Maastricht agree-
ment and in Ireland after Nice), an investigation of the aggregate-level
dynamics of public opinion may help us to understand the impact of these
events better.2
Finally, although previous research has examined the effect of macro-
economic indicators on an individual’s support for integration, the findings
have been far from conclusive. This is mainly owing to the controversial
results about the effects of aggregate economic variables. Also, most of these
studies relate these factors to individual-level support rather than aggregate
support for integration.
This research develops a model of aggregate support that suggests that
people respond collectively to different integration contexts. The history of
the European Union is divided into three periods, each with different politi-
cal and economic developments. Important treaties such as the Single
European Act (SEA) and the Maastricht agreement are defined as critical
events that mark the beginning of an episode. It is expected that the contex-
tual environment of each period shapes the aggregate support for integra-
tion. For instance, a positive collective response is anticipated after the SEA,
in contrast to a likely decline in aggregate support as the Maastricht treaty
European Union Politics 6(4)
470
To continue reading
Request your trial