Trust in China? The impact of development, inequality, and openness on political trust across China’s provinces, 2001–2012
| Author | Ping Xu,Marc L Hutchison |
| Published date | 01 June 2017 |
| DOI | 10.1177/2057891116676409 |
| Date | 01 June 2017 |
| Subject Matter | Research articles |
Research article
Trust in China? The
impact of development,
inequality, and openness on
political trust across China’s
provinces, 2001–2012
Marc L Hutchison
Department of Political Science, University of Rhode Island, USA
Ping Xu
Department of Political Science, University of Rhode Island, USA
Abstract
China has long represented a puzzle for scholars of democracy, who view political trust as an
important indicator of regime legitimacy. Previous studies show that while democracies
around the world experienced declining levels of political trust, the authoritarian Chinese
government maintained unexpectedly high levels of trust. Using World Value Survey (WVS)
data over a critical 12-year period (2001–2012) and multilevel modeling techniques, we
explore both macro- and individual-level determinants of political trust in China. We find
that province-level economic performance and individual-level income combine to influence
political trust. Higher levels of individual-level income have a positive effect on trust in more
developed provinces but an opposite effect in less developed provinces. Furthermore,
individuals living in provinces with higher levels of inequality and openness tend to be less
trusting of government. Our study offers critical insights not only for political trust in China
but also the country’s political future.
Keywords
China, economic development, economic openness, income inequality, political trust
Corresponding author:
Marc L Hutchison, Department of Political Science, University of Rhode Island, 223 Washburn Hall, 80 Upper College Rd,
Kingston, RI Rhode Island 02881, USA.
Email: mlhutch@uri.edu
Asian Journal of Comparative Politics
2017, Vol. 2(2) 176–195
ªThe Author(s) 2016
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DOI: 10.1177/2057891116676409
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How has China’s rapid economic growth influenced its citizens’overall trust in their governments?
Over the last decade or so, several studies have documented that China has enjoyed unexpectedly
high levels of political trust while many democracies haveexperienced declining political trust (Chen
and Shi, 2001; Li, 2012; Norris, 2011; Wang,2005, 2007; Wong et al., 2011; Yang and Tang, 2010).
The World Values Surveys (WVS) reveal that political trust in China was not only significantly
higher than in democracies but also remained relatively stable over time, as shown in Figure 1.
Given that trust in government, or political trust, is considered a critical indicator of regime
legitimacy and often linked to democratic governance (Newton, 2007; Zmerli and Van der Meer,
2016), the roots of China’s high political trust levels continue to puzzle scholars. Despite suspicion
over the trustworthiness of the survey results and speculation that respondents might feel pressured
to report higher levels of political trust in an authoritarian country, little evidence from previous
studies shows support for these misgivings (see Newton, 2001; Shi, 2001).
1
In the curious case of
China, answers have often focused on the Chinese government’s remarkable economic perfor-
mance as well as the role of a government-controlled media and education system (Chen et al.,
1997; Kennedy, 2009; Li, 2012; Wang, 2007; Wong et al., 2011; Yang and Tang, 2010). Prior
studies have primarily concentrated on using individual characteristics to explain political trust at
the national level in China. Although China has witnessed tremendous changes in various aspects
of its economic, social, and political landscapes since the 1980s, few studies have examined the
influence of this on citizens’attitudinal changes. In addition, most studies only consider a simple
linear relationship between income and political trust a nd overlook potentially more complex
relationships between individual income, macro-level economic performance, and trust.
In this study, we argue that China’s robust economic growth could indeed boost Chinese
citizens’trust in their government but the relationship might be more nuanced than previously
suggested. We assert that the various negative consequences associated with development, such as
rising income inequality and regional imbalance in development, could erode Chinese citizens’
01 2
Mean Political Trust
2001 2007 2012
Source: World Values Survey
Figure 1. Aggregate political trust in China across time.
Note: The chart depicts the grand mean of political trust in China over time. Political trust measures individuals’ mean
confidence level in the following political institutions: the legislature, the central government, the army, the police and the
civil services.
Hutchison and Xu 177
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