A twenty-first century foreign policy for Canada in the Middle East and North Africa
| Published date | 01 September 2017 |
| Author | Aisha Ahmad |
| DOI | 10.1177/0020702017725040 |
| Date | 01 September 2017 |
| Subject Matter | Policy Briefs |
Policy Brief
International Journal
2017, Vol. 72(3) 413–423
A twenty-first century
! The Author(s) 2017
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foreign policy for Canada
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DOI: 10.1177/0020702017725040
in the Middle East and
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North Africa
Aisha Ahmad
Political Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Abstract
The security crises facing the Middle East and North Africa are among the most
complex and volatile in the world today. These protracted conflicts are shaped by
a range of catalysts, including state failure, environmental stress, entrenched criminal
war economies, ethnic and tribal hostilities, and ideological extremism. Not only are
these highly fragmented conflicts, but the multiple actors in each of these theatres
also have transnational linkages that trigger contagion effects across state borders. To
understand these new twenty-first century security crises, scholars and policy prac-
titioners alike require modern analytical tools. Gone are the days when Canadian
foreign policy experts could rely on classic state-based models to explain and predict
global violence. To address these contemporary challenges, Canada must adopt a
forward-looking approach to the Middle East and North Africa, which does not shy
away from the compound and multidimensional challenges that these complex envir-
onments present.
Keyword
Canadian foreign policy; Middle East; Africa; peacekeeping; interventions; civil wars;
jihad
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are among the most volatile and
complex security environments in the world today. In the past year alone,
Canadians have witnessed the transformation of the so-called Islamic State of
Iraq and Syria (ISIS) from militant proto-state to radical insurgency. Canadians
have watched these extremist ideologies spread to Libya, Tunisia, Yemen,
Corresponding author:
Aisha Ahmad, Department of Political Science, University of Toronto Scarborough, 1265 Military Trail,
Toronto, Ontario, M1C 1A4, Canada.
Email: aisha.ahmad@utoronto.ca
414
International Journal 72(3)
Afghanistan, and beyond, as new forms of transnational and homegrown terrorism
grip liberal democratic countries in both Europe and North America. Meanwhile,
new wars have erupted between competing global jihadist networks, as al-Qaeda
loyalists turn their guns against ISIS in a bid for ideological supremacy.1 These
conflicts are rapidly mutating, spreading across borders, and dragging great powers
into direct confrontation.
As a security specialist who has spent 15 years researching jihadist groups oper-
ating in civil wars, I am acutely aware of how analytical errors in foreign policy
construction can inadvertently set in motion conflict processes that have devastat-
ing, long-term, and irreversible consequences. Indeed, many of our current crises
were born out of disastrous policy recommendations which failed to appreciate
realities on the ground.2 Our Canadian men and women in uniform, the instru-
ments of our foreign policies, count on decision-makers to make careful, well-
informed decisions about each theatre of operations. As scholars, it is therefore
our duty to ensure that we offer our decision-makers the highest-quality counsel,
rooted in detailed ground-level analysis of each relevant theatre.
In this paper, I argue that Canada must adopt a forward-looking, twenty-first
century approach to the MENA region, one which does not shy away from the
compound and multidimensional challenges that these contemporary security
environments present. There is no such thing as a comprehensive theoretical frame-
work that can guide policymakers safely through a conflict-ridden and volatile
MENA region in transition. Canadian foreign policy experts must rely on
thorough and complete assessments of the relevant actors, identity politics, and
material interests that have constructed these nodes of conflict, based on detailed
ground-level empirical research. We must look deep within each theatre, and avoid
the dangers of painting the entire MENA region with the same broad analytical
brush.
Canada’s engagement must therefore treat these problems as a multi-level game,
played at the sub-state, domestic, regional, and international levels. This complex
systems approach to the region will save Canada from being dragged into civil war
quagmires, great power entanglements, and even major war. A forward-thinking,
prudent, and responsible foreign policy towards the MENA region, rooted in our
commitment to multilateralism and the rule of law, is thus essential to maintain
Canada’s security at home and on the world stage. To succeed in these troubled
times, Canadian foreign policy needs to embrace complexity and nuance.
1.
Charles R. Lister, The Syrian Jihad: Al-Qaeda, the Islamic State and the Evolution of an Insurgency
(New York: Oxford University Press, 2016); Daniel Byman, Al Qaeda, the Islamic State, and the
Global Jihadist Movement: What Everyone Needs to KnowÕ (New York: Oxford University Press,
2015); Barak Mendelsohn, The al-Qaeda Franchise: The Expansion of al-Qaeda and its Consequences
(New York: Oxford University Press, 2015).
2.
Alex Strick van Linschoten and Felix Kuehn, An Enemy We Created: The Myth of the Taliban-Al
Qaeda Merger in Afghanistan (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2012); Harry Verhoeven, ‘‘The self-
fulfilling prophecy of failed states: Somalia, state collapse and the Global War on Terror,’’ Journal
of Eastern African Studies 3, no. 3 (2009): 405–425; Aisha Ahmad, ‘‘Agenda for peace or budget for
war?’’ International Journal 67, no. 2 (spring 2012): 313–331.
Ahmad
415
Tackling twenty-first century threats
Since the turn of the twenty-first century, numerous new international security
threats have emerged across the world, from state collapse to environmental migra-
tion to ethnic conflict contagion.3 It is thus no accident that some of the most
important research in security studies over the past two decades has focused on new
threats, pushing scholars to challenge conventional wisdoms and identify innova-
tive approaches. This ground-breaking research has moved away from simplified
state-based analytical models, and offers indispensable tools for understanding the
many new and powerful actors operating in contemporary conflict zones.
This cutting edge scholarship has special relevance for the MENA region. The
most pressing problems in the region today are complex, multi-actor, and cross-
border conflicts, steeped in identity politics and historical rivalries. For example, it
is impossible to understand Iranian regional security policies without detailed
knowledge about how the Iran–Iraq War shaped the identities and interests of
the Iranian Revolutionary military and intelligence establishments.4 Likewise, in
order to properly understand the rise and evolution of Sunni jihadist groups in
northern Lebanon, we must understand both the internal sectarian conflicts
in Lebanon and the long-standing role of Syria as a regional power in dominating
Lebanese politics.5 Making sense of these complex conflicts requires sophisticated
and modern analytical instruments.
Most importantly, we cannot understand the modern MENA region by looking
solely at states. In every single politically fraught MENA country, there are diverse
non-state and transnational groups that play significant roles in these conflicts.
Ethnic and tribal insurgents, paramilitary forces, competing jihadist factions, revo-
lutionary social movements, and...
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