Using scenario planning in regional development context: the challenges and opportunities
| Published date | 01 February 2013 |
| Date | 01 February 2013 |
| Pages | 103-122 |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1108/20425941311323118 |
| Author | Boo Edgar,Adli Abouzeedan,Thomas Hedner,Karl Maack,Mats Lundqvist |
| Subject Matter | Public policy & environmental management |
Using scenario planning in
regional development context: the
challenges and opportunities
Boo Edgar, Adli Abouzeedan, Thomas Hedner and Karl Maack
Department of Clinical Trials and Entrepreneurship,
The Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg,
Gothenburg, Sweden, and
Mats Lundqvist
Management of Organizational Renewal and Entrepreneurship (MORE),
Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden
Abstract
Purpose – Planning under conditions of uncertainty is more demanding than doing the same under
less uncertain circumstances. Planning which is coupled to high level of uncertainty requires good
strategic thinking by the planners. There are a number of methods used for planning under such
circumstances. Among these methods is scenario planning. Scenario planning has been used for
classical management to help organizations and firms in their decision-making activities. One area
where scenario planning has not been used intensively, according to the authors’ understanding, is in a
regional development context and especially in relation to the innovation aspects and policy issues.
Design/methodology/approach – In this paper, the authors discuss and exemplify the possible
utilization of scenario planning to promote innovation in a regional development context. They look at
the hidden potential of the method and discuss the challenges of its utilization. To run their analysis,
they use a number of cases from the health sector. These cases are unique because they also involved
input from a number of actors of the regional innovation system.
Findings – The authors found that scenario planning is a valuable tool to deal with regional
development schemes under high level of uncertainty and where diverse actors from the regional
innovation system are involved.
Originality/value – The authors argue in this work that scenario planning has the potential to be
used, at a more intense scale, in promoting innovation activities in organizations within the context of
a regional development drive. Surely, scenario planning need be considered when discussing
innovation in relation to introduction of new therapies, new educational schemes, and other regional
development initiatives.
Keywords Scenario planning, Regional development, Healthcare sector, Regenerative medicine,
Internetization management, The entrepreneurial remedy model, Health care
Paper type Research p aper
Introduction
Have good insight into the future rather than using guess ing is important if one wants
to understand the possible outcomes of ones actions. Guesswork and imagining are
two frequently used methods to frame what could be the path forward ( Jolly, 1997).
However, when dealing with larger changes such as creating new infrastructure,
regional development, introducing new medical therapies, and initiating organizational
changes or other anticipated radical change, scenario planning is able to help us
( Jolly, 1997). This is p articularly important as different stakeholders will have a major
impact on decision-making processes in relation to such changes. This is especially
true when the potential outpu t of the innovation process defines what activities have to
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WorldJour nal of Science, Technology
and Sustainable Development
Vol.10 No. 2, 2013
pp. 103-122
rEmeraldGroup Publishing Limited
2042-5945
DOI 10.1108/20425941311323118
103
Using scenario
planning
be planned and initiated. For example, planning in the pharmaceutical industry is
problematic, especially if a new medical invention is to be commercialized. The more
uncertain the outcome of a new invention is, the more resistance there will be to take
relevant decisions (Cowlrick et al., 2011). The R&D decision-making processes in the
drug industries require changes in the behaviour patterns of the decis ion makers
(Hedner, 2012). Therefore the diffusion of such innovations, most likely, will follow a
specific pattern described by Rogers Bell Curve (Rogers, 1962). The uncertainty we
face globally results from the interaction of many forces including technological,
scientific, cultural, social, political, economic and environmental ones. Substantial
resources have been applied and various methods have been developed to facilitate
better planning, such as the Delphi method (Kaplan et al., 1950; Blind et al., 2001).
However, these methods did not bring noticeable improvementin our insight into the future.
A method which deserves closer inspection in planning processes is scenario planning.
Scenario planning is becoming a robust method as it takes out the guesswork
element as far as possible, while retaining the ability to consider a variety of plausible
eventualities (Kahn and Weiner, 1967). The method considers the different kind of
stakeholders in its build-up (Kahn and Weiner, 2000). The term “scenario planning”
was first proposed by RAND Corporation(Wack, 1984). Scenarioplanning is particularly
useful when considering the long-term aspects and/or situations in which unexpected
changes may disrupt previous trends. In order to achieve that, some universities adopt a
tacit “learning by doing” approach to complement the theoretical “learning by reading”
approach in relevant academic fields as a bridge between the theory and the practice
(Hedner et al., 2010).
The existing literature stressed that the higher level of participation in the decision
process required from the involved parties, the more complex, disruptive, and
uncertain the issue is under consideration. There is a drive to se e regional development
through knowledge-based perspective (cf. Etzkowitz, 2004; Etzkowitz and Klofsten,
2005). Because of the higher level of uncertainties in relation to planning at a regional
level, one need to realize that implementation of policies aiming at the creation of
knowledge-based regional economies is coupled to usage of strategic planning tools
such as scenario planning (Etzkowitz and Klofsten, 2005). In scenario planning several
and plausible views of what may happen in the future are examined in depth. Pierre
Wack, one of the pioneers of this method, described it as a discipline for encourag ing
creative and entrepreneurial thinking and action in contexts of change , complexity,
and uncertainty (Wack, 1984). The scenario planning method requires that there
is a thorough fact gathering process similar to a SWOT, SOAR or Delphi process.
But in contrast to a SWOT analysis the method considers and weighs the forces
and uncertainties that will impact the future. Such reviewing will stimulate novel
innovation and business strategies. The anticipated scenarios are based on projections
on what could be the outcome. They are only plausible stories (van der Heijden, 1996)
which together with an additional step, back casting (Ala
¨nge and Lundqvist, 2010),
could define the very long impact of change. The agre ed story-making would, if it was
captured in the right way, improve our understanding of the risks and potential
involved, but it also could lead to the acceptance of the necessary changes that have to
occur to be able to generate relevant innovations.
The first section is this paper is a general introduction. In the second section we
discuss the existing planning methods that involve uncertainty. In the third section
we give a general background about the method of scenario planning. In Section 4 we
discuss scenario planning utilization in regional development. In Section 5, we look at
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