V Political Process : Public Opinion, Attitudes, Parties, Forces, Groups and Elections / Vie Politique : Opinion Publique, Attitudes, Partis, Forces, Groupes et Élections
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/00208345231157668 |
| Published date | 01 February 2023 |
| Date | 01 February 2023 |
51
V
POLITICAL PROCESS : PUBLIC OPINION,
ATTITUDES, PARTIES, FORCES, GROUPS AND ELECTIONS
VIE POLITIQUE : OPINION PUBLIQUE,
ATTITUDES, PARTIS, FORCES, GROUPES ET ÉLECTIONS
73.365 AARDAL, Bernt ; BERGH, Johannes — The 2021 Norwegian
election. West European Politics 45(7), 2022 : 1522-1534.
The Storting election of September 2021 signaled the end of eight years
in office for of the centre-right government led by Premier Erna Solberg.
During this period, different constellations of parties had been in power:
first the Conservatives and the Progress Party, later the Liberal Party and
finally the Christian Democrats joined the coalition. However, due to policy
disagreements, particularly with the Liberals and the Christian Democrats,
the Progress Party left the coalition in 2020, just a year ahead of the elec-
tion. Climate and immigration policies were at the core of the disagree-
ments. At the 2021 election, the five centre-left (or red-green) parties won
the majority of seats and votes, but did not succeed in establishing a ma-
jority government. Instead, the Labour Party and the Centre Party formed
a minority government, supported by the Socialist Left Party. [R, abr.]
73.366 ABDULAEV, Narmina ; SHOMRON, Baruch — Celebrity pol-
iticians as health-promoting role models in the media: the
cases of Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump, and Benjamin Net-
anyahu. International Journal of Politics, Culture and Society
35(3), Sept. 2022 : 369-389.
In recent years, scholars have increasingly revealed the importance of ce-
lebrities in society, among them celebrity politicians. These celebrities not
only influence political attitudes but also serve as role models for many
individuals. Yet, little is known regarding what types of role models’ politi-
cians serve as in the context of health. To fill this gap, we examined three
influential contemporary political leaders: Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump
and Benjamin Netanyahu, and the type of mediated role models each pos-
sibly comprise in the context of healthy living. By conducting a qualitative
content-analysis, we analyzed 90 articles from 2018 to 2019 from two
leading newspapers in each of the three politician’s countries, namely
Russia, the USA, and Israel as well as the respective politician’s Facebook
pages. [R, abr.]
73.367 ABRAMSON, Scott F. ; KOCAK, Korhan ; MAGAZINNIK, Asya
— What do we learn about voter preferences from conjoint
experiments? American Journal of Political Science 66(4),
Oct. 2022 : 1008-1020.
Political scientists frequently interpret the results of conjoint experiments
as reflective of majority preferences. We show that the target estimand of
conjoint experiments, the average marginal component effect (AMCE), is
not well defined in these terms. Even with individually rational experi-
mental subjects, the AMCE can indicate the opposite of the true prefer-
ence of the majority. To show this, we characterize the preference aggre-
gation rule implied by the AMCE and demonstrate its several undesirable
properties. With this result, we provide a method for placing bounds on the
proportion of experimental subjects who prefer a given candidate feature.
We describe conditions under which the AMCE corresponds in sign with
the majority preference. Finally, we offer a structural interpretation of the
AMCE and highlight that the problem we describe persists even when a
model of voting is imposed. [R]
73.368 ADAMS, Kirsten — (Re)writing history: examining the cul-
tural work of the obituary and journalists’ construction of
a former president’s legacy. Journalism 23(5), May 2022 :
1027-1043.
This study provides an empirical and analytical look at how obituaries, as
a relatively unexplored form of journalism, illuminate the long-term
and conscious cultural work that journalists do. Through in-depth qualita-
tive interviews with the elite political journalists who wrote and produced
news obituaries for former US President George H. W. Bush, I offer a
framework for understanding how journalists rewrite, and ‘recast’, drafts of
history and Bush’s legacy. Results show how the obituary form, and the
process involved in its creation, functions as a unique opportunity for po-
litical journalists — who have, perhaps for decades, covered a politician
according to the norms of the profession — to now write about him in a
way that they are keenly aware will become part of history. This research
illustrates how the role of political or ‘hard-news’ journalism shifts when
reporters write their final story about a president. [R]
73.369 ADHIKARI, Pankaj ; MARIAM, Sania ; THOMSON, Robert —
Election pledges in India: comparisons with Western de-
mocracies. Commonwealth and Comparative Politics 30(6),
2022 : 254-275.
Election pledges feature prominently in the theory and practice of repre-
sentation and have been examined extensively in a growing field of com -
parative research. However, research in this field has largely ignored non-
Western democracies and the world’s largest electoral democracy, India.
The present analysis begins to fill this lacuna by examining election
pledges made by Indian parties at the national level over a period of two
decades (1999-2019) and comparing this with selected Western parties.
The extension of research on election pledges to India prompts us to as-
sess the relevance of pledges to the distinctive characteristics of Indian
party competition. This differs markedly from the spatial model of party
competition that is often applied in pledge research in Western systems.
Party competition in India is instead characterised largely by valence poli-
tics on socioeconomic issues and by identity politics on religious issues.
[R, abr.]
73.370 ADIDA, Claire L., et al. — Refugees to the rescue? Motivat-
ing pro-refugee public engagement during the COVID-19
pandemic. Journal of Experimental Political Science 9(3),
Winter 2022 : 281-295.
Migrants are often scapegoated during public health crises. Can such cri-
ses create opportunities for migrant inclusion instead? As the COVID -19
pandemic unfolds, many refugee organizations have stepped up their out-
reach with stories of refugees helping out in the crisis. We have partnered
with the country’s leading refugee advocate organizations to test whether
solidarity narratives increase public engagement with refugee advocates.
We employ a Facebook experimental design to evaluate the effectiveness
of refugee narratives. We test whether (1) migrant narratives framed in the
context of COVID-19, (2) COVID-19 migrant narratives targeted to more
or less local communities, and (3) COVID-19 migrant narratives labeled
as refugee vs. immigrant efforts enhance public engagement with refugee
organizations. Our results indicate that migrant narratives framed in the
context of COVID-19 do not motivate greater engagement than those that
make no mention of the pandemic. Our results provide suggestive evi-
dence that locally targeted efforts motivate greater engagement. Finally,
we find no difference between the “refugee” and “immigrant” label, but we
show that both labels can motivate greater engagem ent than ads that in-
clude neither. [R, abr.]
73.371 AGARIN, Timofey ; JARRETT, Henry — Cross-segmental
parties in consociational systems: downplaying prowess
to access power in Northern Ireland. British Journal of Poli-
tics and International Relations 24(4), Nov. 2022 : 723-740.
Political parties are afforded a key role in making consociational democ-
racy work; however, parties that dis-identify with salient identities and ap-
peal to voters across the ethno-political divide face barriers when interact-
ing with voters and with other, segmental parties. Nevertheless, such
cross-segmental parties often thrive and even ascend to power. Northern
Ireland’s cross-segmental parties — the Alliance Party, the Green Party,
and People before Profit — have sought to traverse group-specific voter
interests and set their agenda apart from that of segmental parties. For
such parties to be considered ‘coalitionable’, they should outline their (po-
tential) governing contribution to complement other political parties’ agen-
das. Cross-segmental parties’ participation in government makes them
appear electable, but it is the focus on bipartisan concerns that consoli-
dates their electoral success and ensures their political relevance. [R]
73.372 AHRENS, Leo — The (a)symmetric effects of income and
unemployment on popular demand for redistribution.
West European Politics 45(7), 2022 : 1407-1432.
Political process : public opinion, attitudes, parties, forces, groups and elections
52
Numerous studies show that those with lower income and the unemployed
support more redistribution, which is attributed to material self-interest.
However, recent studies assessing within-individual changes result in
smaller and less consistent effect estimates. To explain why preferences
do not narrowly follow material self-interest, this study argues that the ef-
fects of income and unemployment may be asymmetric, implying that im-
proving and deteriorating material circumstances exert differently sized ef-
fects. The claims are tested using panel data from Great Britain and a
weighted difference-in-difference estimator. [R, abr.]
73.373 AHRENS, Petra ; GAWEDA, Barbara ; KANTOLA, Johanna —
Reframing the language of human rights? Political group
contestations on women’s and LGBTQI rights in European
Parliament debates. Journal of European Integration 44(6),
2022 : 803-819.
European integration is challenged on numerous grounds today with de-
mocracy and fundamental values at the center of the debates. The article
analyses the role of the European Parliament’s political groups in shaping
human rights as a core democratic value and the ways in which religion
and gender equality are utilized. The research material consists of plenary
debates and 130 MEP and staff interviews in the 8th and 9th legislatures.
We discern three clusters in the ways in which the political groups frame
human rights and gender equality: (1) ‘the defenders’, (2) ‘the reframers’,
and those (3) ‘sitting on the fence’. Our analysis illustrates that core EU
values such as human rights and equality are defended, challenged, and
reframed by the political groups to an extent that they constitute key lines
of division not only in between but also within the political groups. [R]
73.374 AJALA, Olayinka — Evolution and decline: transformation
of social movements in Nigeria. Review of African Political
Economy 172, 2022 : 246-263.
Despite the rising academic scholarship on democracy, particularly the
role played by social movements in entrenching democracy in Africa, few
studies have explored the transformation of social movements after they
have achieved (or come close to achieving) their stated goals. Using a
case study of the Oodua Peoples Congress in Nigeria, this study argues
that social movements in Africa lack the capacity to transform and often
become partisan or disintegrate. The study concludes that the unique
characteristics of African politics, coupled with the inability of social move-
ments to maintain public support after initial gains, eventually weaken the
movements. [R]
73.375 AKKOYUNLU, Karabekir ; LIMA, — Brazil’s stealth military
intervention. Journal of Politics in Latin America 14(1 ), Apr.
2022 : 31-54.
Between 2016 and 2020, a group of activist generals successfully plotted
the Brazilian military's gradual return to the political center stage with pow-
ers unseen since the dictatorship. They achieved this without formally
breaking the law, suspending the democratic process or overthrowing the
government. We call this a “stealth intervention,” an incremental yet sys-
tematic attempt to redesign politics without causing a rupture, that fits nei-
ther in the existing typology of coups nor in the literature on democratic
backsliding. We argue that Brazil’s stealth intervention, built upon the mil-
itary’s existing tutelary prerogatives and driven by an unreformed praeto-
rian worldview that resurfaced amidst a sustained crisis of democracy,
challenges the prevalent view of the armed forces as a reactive force that
intervenes in civilian politics only when its institutional interests are threat-
ened. Finally, we show that democratic backsliding in Brazil started under
Bolsonaro’s predecessor, Michel Temer, and point to the generals’ under-
studied role in this process. [R, abr.]
73.376 ALAMSSRY, Hazem — Digital democracy as a mechanism
for achieving participatory democracy — The case of the
Palestinian Territories. Democracy and Security 18(3),
2022 : 263-290.
This paper seeks to demonstrate the concept of digital democracy and its
ability to form attitudes and trends in public opinion and it also deals with
the opportunities available for digital democracy to activate participatory
democracy in the Palestinian territories and it also sheds light on the reality
and challenges of digital democracy there. The study uses both the ana-
lytical descriptive and the historical approaches. The study concludes that
Palestinian citizens lost their confidence in their appointed representatives
due to the lack of practical mechanisms that stimulate the processes of
participation. Because of that, the media and communication technology
tools in Palestine have transformed among the citizens into a space for
the exchange of ideas and information, as well as a space for dialogue
and debate, and for raising issues of wide popular interest, far from the
formal and traditional frameworks. [R]
73.377 ALBAUGH, Quinn M. — Gatekeeping by central and local
party actors: theory and evidence from a field study of
New Brunswick nominations, 2017-2018. Canadian Journal
of Political Science 55(3), Sept. 2022 : 561-582.
Under what circumstances do central and local party actors engage in
gatekeeping to influence the outcomes of local nomination races? In this
article, I develop a theory of gatekeeping in Canadian parties by synthe-
sizing past work on candidate selection with a multi-method field study of
New Brunswick provincial nominations (2017-2018). I present evidence in
favour of this theory from participant-observation of 25 nominating con-
ventions, 93 elite interviews, and an original dataset of major party nomi-
nations for the 2018 New Brunswick election. The theory and evidence
show how gatekeeping by central party actors helps explain how nomina-
tions can go uncontested, even in competitive and safe seats. The theory
also generates several testable claims for future studies of candidate se-
lection in other places, time periods and levels of government in Canada.
[R]
73.378 ALBERTSEN, Andreas — How do the characteristics of vot-
ing advice application users change over time? Evidence
from the German election studies. German Politics 31(3),
2022 : 399-419.
Unequal and declining electoral turnout has spurred numerous initiatives
to reverse the trend. Voting advice applications (VAAs) are one prominent
attempt. The early VAA literature found that VAA users tend to be young,
well-educated, politically interested men. For the first time, this article as-
sesses whether this pattern cha nges over time. Using German election
data, it measures whether age, gender, education, and political interest
still explains VAA use. Age remains important, while gender is no longer
significant. Those with the highest levels of education remain significantly
more likely to use VAAs, but this is no longer true for those with moderate
levels of education. Political interest remains an important predictor of VAA
usage. Overall, we have thus seen a development in which users become
more similar to the population as a whole. [R, abr.]
73.379 ALEXANDRE-COLLIER, Agnès — David Cameron, Boris
Johnson and the "populist hypothesis" in the British Con-
servative Party. Comparative European Politics 20(5), Oct.
2022 : 527-543.
Brexit was often associated with a recent upsurge of populism in Western
democracies, with the idea of re-engaging with the people being construed
as a populist strategy to disengage from Europe. This article explores the
populist hypothesis by stepping outside the dominant literature on popu-
lism to take a closer look at Peter Mair's ‘populist democracy’ as applied
to two defining moments: David Cameron’s decision to hold a referendum
on EU membership and Boris Johnson’s process of implementing Brexit.
Mair's notion encompasses two aspects — procedural and substantive
populism — which seem to apply to both moments. [R, abr.] [See Abstr.
73.1396]
73.380 ALLAIN, Mathilde ; MAILLET, Antoine — Les mobilisations
autour de l’extractivisme. Circulation et potentiel heuris-
tique d’un concept en voie de globalisation (Mobilizations
around extractivism. Circulation and heuristic potential of
a concept in the process of globalization). Revue interna-
tionale de Politique comparée 28(3-4), 2021 : 7-29.
At the heart of our lifestyle and contemporary political economy, extractive
industries have been the subject of significant social mobilizations in dif-
ferent parts of the world. To deal with the global and local dimensions of
the phenomenon, we propose to extend the concept of extractivism be-
yond its initial Latin American context. We adopt a comparative, multi-sca-
lar, and global-oriented approach, which allows us to incorporate insights
from political ecology in order to understand extractivism mobilizations, as
shown by the articles gathered in this issue. A comparative reading of
these papers highlights several central aspects of this type of social mobi-
lization: the usefulness of the concept of extractivism for analyzing a global
process, the multi-scalar dimension of the analysis of social mobilizations,
the diversification of the framing of collective action, and the relationship
between extractive industries and mobilizations. [R] [First article of a the-
matic issue of the same title, edited by the authors. See also Abstr. 73.428,
546, 688, 1339]
73.381 ALLERS, Maarten ; RIENKS, Harm ; NATRIS, Joes de —
When are parties punished for serving in a coalition gov-
ernment? Electoral Studies 79, Oct. 2022 : 102516.
Many empirical studies find that parties in government on average lose
votes. However, few studies take into account that this cost of ruling may
not be uniform across parties. Those that do present dissimilar results. We
investigate whether characteristics of parties and coalitions mediate the
effect of party incumbency on local election results. Using a large panel
data-set on municipal elections in the Netherlands enables us to control
carefully for omitted variables. We find that the cost of ruling decreases
with the number of coalition parties, and after four or more consecutive
terms in office. These results are consistent with the grievance asymmetry
theory. However, other results remain unexplained by existing theories.
[R, abr.]
Vie politique : opinion publique, attitudes, partis, forces, groupes et élections
53
73.382 ALTAMURA, Christopher ; OLIVER, Brenden — Who feels
the Bern? An analysis of support for Bernie Sanders in the
2020 democratic primary. American Politics Research 50(5),
Sept. 2022 : 643-646.
Researchers remain divided over the cause of Bernie Sanders’ strong ap-
peal in recent Democratic primaries, alternately positing identity or ideol-
ogy as decisive drivers of Sanders support. Using data from 2020 Nation-
scape, we conduct linear probability models that show how identity, ideol-
ogy, and their interaction all explain Sanders support. Demographically,
we find that Sanders voters are disproportionately young, Hispanic, and
Independent. Sanders voters also differ significantly from other Demo-
cratic primary voters across several ideology variables, and are especially
supportive of policies that were central to Sanders’ campaign, such as
providing government-run health insurance to all Americans. Finally, we
demonstrate that age cohort, the most important predictor of Sanders sup-
port, has an effect that is highly dependent upon key ideology variables.
[R, abr.]
73.383 AMIRA, Karyn — Donald Trump’s effect on who is consid-
ered “conservative”. American Politics Research 50(5),
Sept. 2022 : 682-693.
Conservative intellectuals have expressed concern that Donald Trump
has tarnished the conservative brand with his authoritarian-populist rheto-
ric and style of governing. What exactly is Donald Trump’s effect on this
ideological label? I replicate work showing that members of Congress who
have openly supported Trump are seen as more conservative than those
who do not openly support him. I then test this relationship experimentally
and explore whether a pro- (or anti-) Trump cue alone drives this percep-
tion or whether other perceived, unstated issue positions might influence
this result. I find that supporting Trump moves candidates rightward com-
pared to a control group, and this effect is about twice as large as the anti-
Trump cue which moves candidates leftward. I also find that candidates
who support Trump are more likely to be associated with additional issue-
related content. [R, abr.]
73.384 ANDERS, Jake ; BURGESS, Simon ; PORTES, Jonathan —
The long-term outcomes of refugees: tracking the pro-
gress of the East African Asians. Journal of Refugee Stud-
ies 34(2), June 2021 : 1967-1998.
Refugees are often perceived as an economic ‘burden’, as the current de-
bate on the European refugee crisis illustrates. But there is little quantita-
tive evidence on the medium-term outcomes of refugees in the UK. We fill
this gap by looking at the case of ‘East African Asians’ who arrived as
refugees in the late 1960s and early 1970s. We discuss from a theoretical
and empirical perspective the possible factors that might influence — pos-
itively and negatively — their long-term economic outcomes and use data
from the UK Census to describe those outcomes 40 years later. We show
that their outcomes are at least as good as the population average, with
the younger cohort performing better, and better than for economic mi-
grants of the same ethnicity. At least for this group, refugee status, as dis-
tinct from ethnicity or immigrant status, appears to have been positively
associated with their economic outcomes. [R]
73.385 ANDERSON, Cameron D. ; McGREGOR, R. Michael ; STE-
PHENSON, Laura B. — Us versus them: do the rules of the
game encourage negative partisanship? European Journal
of Political Research 61(4), Nov. 2022 : 1060-1079.
Party identification is a well-documented force in political behaviour. How-
ever, the vast majority of work on partisanship considers only its positive
side, rather than recognizing that partisan identities may also have a neg-
ative component. Recent work has shown that negative partisanship has
important effects, such as reinforcing partisan leanings, directing strategic
behaviour and increasing the rate of straight-ticket voting. This study takes
a step back to explore the sources of such orientations, rather than the
effects. Specifically, it considers whether the electoral system context con-
tributes to the presence of negative affective orientations towards parties.
Using data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems, we examine
the influence of factors related to electoral system features and consider
whether their influence is moderated by voter sophistication. [R, abr.]
73.386 ANDERSON, Dylan S. J. — The “tipping point” of a strate-
gic vote: when does an individual vote strategically? Ca-
nadian Journal of Political Science 55(3), Sept. 2022 : 645-
662.
Although the existence of strategic voting in the United Kingdom and Can-
ada has been well documented, quantifying when a voter will cast a stra-
tegic ballot has yet to be done. This article draws on electoral data from
five UK and Canadian elections in order to address this gap by identifying
a precise “tipping point” for when a non-viable party supporter's probability
of voting strategically crosses a 50 per cent threshold. I find the best tip-
ping point measure occurs when a voter rates their favourite viable party
greater than 59 out of 100 in the UK and greater than 73 out of 100 in
Canada. Both countries also have clear tipping points for the likeability of
an individual's highest preferred party and perceptions of that party's dis-
tance from contention. Overall, by calculating these tipping points, re-
searchers can better gauge voter behaviour and how, or when, certain
factors contribute to strategic voting. [R]
73.387 ANGULO-PASEL, Carla — The politics of temporary pro-
tection schemes: the role of Mexico’s TVRH in reproduc-
ing precarity among central American migrants. Journal of
Politics in Latin America 14(1), Apr. 2022 : 84-102.
Using Mexico’s Tarjeta de Visitante por Razones Humanitarias (TVRH) as
a primary case study, this article examines how states can use temporary
protection schemes as border security measures while claiming to provide
protection. Although the TVRH offers a legal pathway and status to move
within Mexico, it equally restricts certain rights due to its temporary nature.
It becomes a form of differential inclusion by which th e state has the right
to be able to “exclude and define the limits” of a particular population but
also claim inclusion on humanitarian grounds. Despite the claim of pro-
tecting migrants, the application of this regular status can essentially be-
come a form of interdiction, which sustains the political framing of migra-
tion as ultimately a “threat” that needs to be governed. [R, abr.]
73.388 ANOLL, Allison P. ; EPP, Derek A. ; ISRAEL-TRUMMEL, Mac-
kenzie — Contact and context: how municipal traffic stops
shape citizen character. Journal of Politics 84(4), Oct. 2022 :
2272-2277.
Previous research shows that how the state conducts itself influences cit-
izen attitudes and behaviors through direct and proximal contact; we show
the actions of state agents ripple out even further. Joining bureaucratic
data on a publicly observable state behavior — racial disparities in inves-
tigatory traffic stops — with survey data, this article shows that residing in
a place with extreme racial disparities in traffic stops is associated with
depressed confidence in the police even in the absence of more direct
forms of contact. This relationship does not extend to participatory behav-
iors, however, in which only personal stop history and proximal contact are
predictors. Racially disparate policing practices, then, may undermine law
enforcement legitimacy in a community as a whole, but mobilization to
change policy appears limited to individuals who more directly experience
the carceral state. [R]
73.389 ANZIA, Sarah F. ; BERNHARD, Rachel — Gender stereotyp-
ing and the electoral success of women candidates: new
evidence from local elections in the United States. British
Journal of Political Science 52(4), Oct. 2022 : 1544-1563.
Research shows that voters often use gender stereotypes to evaluate can-
didates, which should help women in some electoral contexts and hurt
them in others. Yet, most research examines a single context at a time —
usually US national elections, where partisanship is strong — and employs
surveys and experiments, raising concerns that citizens’ responses may
not reflect how they actually vote. By analyzing returns from thousands of
nonpartisan local elections, we test whether patterns of women's win rates
relative to men's match expectations for how the electoral effects of gen-
der stereotyping should vary by context. We find women have greater ad-
vantages over men in city council than mayoral races, still greater ad-
vantages in school board races, and decreasing advantages in more con-
servative constituencies. Thus, women fare better in stereotype-congruent
contexts and worse in incongruent contexts. These effects are most pro-
nounced during on-cycle elections, when voters tend to know less about
local candidates. [R]
73.390 ANZIA, Sarah F. ; JARES, Jake Alton ; MALHOTRA, Neil —
Does receiving government assistance shape political at-
titudes? Evidence from agricultural producers. American
Political Science Review 116(4), Nov. 2022 : 1389-1406.
When individuals receive benefits from government programs, does it af-
fect their attitudes toward those programs or toward government gener-
ally? A growing literature blends policy feedback theory and political be-
havior research to explore these questions, but so far it has focused al-
most exclusively on social policies such as the Affordable Care Act. We
focus on a very different set of government programs that reach a more
conservative, rural population: agricultural assistance. Our study ties ad-
ministrative records on participation in USDA farm aid programs to an orig-
inal, first-of-its-kind survey measuring agricultural producers’ political atti-
tudes. We find that receiving agricultural assistance is sometimes related
to producers’ views of the program delivering the benefits, but it depends
on the divisiveness of the program and — for highly partisan programs —
recipients’ ideology. [R, abr.]
73.391 ARAÚJO, Victor ; GATTO, Malu A. C. — Casting ballots
when knowing results. British Journal of Political Science
52(4), Oct. 2022 : 1709-1727.
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