Verdict 2019: The expanded support base of the Bharatiya Janata Party
| DOI | 10.1177/2057891120907699 |
| Author | Sanjay Kumar |
| Date | 01 March 2020 |
| Published date | 01 March 2020 |
| Subject Matter | Research articles |
Research article
Verdict 2019: The expanded
support base of the Bharatiya
Janata Party
Sanjay Kumar
Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, India
Abstract
The verdict of 2019 indicates that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) not only managed to retain its
support base which it built in 2014, but also expanded it both geographically and socially. It
managed to win seats in states where it had not performed well in earlier elections, and to get
more votes amongst communities which had not voted for it earlier. The Congress could not
improve upon its 2014 performance, but it is important to note that neither its votes nor its tally of
seats decreased. The BJP improved upon its performance of 2014 largely at the cost of regional
parties. The combined vote share of the regional parties witnessed a decline. Some regional parties
did manage to hold onto their support base but others could not secure the support base they had
held in 2014. In states like Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh (UP), Karnataka and Maharashtra, the
regional parties performed badly despite some of them having formed an anti-BJP alliance. The
BJP’s gain in terms of vote share and seats, largely at the expense of regional parties in many states,
begins a new debate about whether this is the beginning of the end of the dominance of regional
parties in the North Indians states, or if it is a passing phase in Indian elections. If this decline in the
importance of the regional parties is largely in respect of national elections, could there be a
reversal in the trend during state assembly elections?
Keywords
Bharatiya Janata Party, elections, India
The verdict of 2019 indicates that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
1
not only managed to retain its
support base which it built in 2014, but also expanded it both geographically and socially. It not
only managed to perform well in states where it was not prominent earlier, but also secured support
from various social groups which had traditionally voted differently. The Congress
2
could not
Corresponding author:
Sanjay Kumar, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, 29 Rajpur Road, Ludlow Castle, Civil Lines, New Delhi, Delhi
110054, India.
Email: sanjay@csds.in
Asian Journal of Comparative Politics
2020, Vol. 5(1) 6–22
ªThe Author(s) 2020
Article reuse guidelines:
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DOI: 10.1177/2057891120907699
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improve upon its performance of 2014, but it is important to note that neither its votes nor its tally
of seats decreased. The BJP improved upon its 2014 performance largely at the cost of regional
parties. The combined vote share of the regional parties
3
witnessed a decline. Some regional
parties did manage to hold onto their support base but others could not retain the kind of support
base they had held in 2014. In states like Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh (UP), Karnataka and
Maharashtra, the regional parties performed badly despite some of them having formed an anti-
BJP alliance. BJP’s gain in terms of vote share and seats, largely at the expense of regional parties
in many states, begins a new debate about whether this is the beginning of the end of the dominance
of regional parties in the North Indians states,
4
or if it is a passing phase in Indian elections. If this
decline in the importance of the regional parties is largely with respect of national elections, could
there be a reversal in the trend during state assembly elections?
The verdict of 2019
The Bhartiya Janata Party won 303 seats and a comfortable majority on its own during the 2019
elections. Its vote share also increased from 31%to 37.5%. The BJP-led National Democratic
Alliance (NDA)
5
won 353 seats. The Indian National Congress (INC) won 52 seats and the United
Progressive Alliance (UPA)
6
won 91 seats. There was hardly any increase in the vote share of the
Congress compared to the 2014 Lok Sabha
7
elections. Contrary to the expectation of many, the
Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)
8
and the Samajwadi Party (SP)
9
alliance in Uttar Pradesh performed
miserably, and managed to win only 15 seats. The BSP won 10 seats, while the SP won only five.
How convincing was the BJP’s victory?
The verdict of 2019 indicates that the BJP improved on its 2014 performance both in terms of seats
and vote share, registering a convincing victory in many states, e.g. Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya
Pradesh (MP), Delhi, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Chhattisgarh, Assam, Arunachal
Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir (Jammu region) (see Table 1). Apart from Assam and Jammu and
Table 1. States where the BJP improved its performance in 2019.
Vote share (%) No. of seats
State 2014 2019 2014 2019
Gujarat 59.0 62.1 26 26
Rajasthan* 54.8 58.2 25 25
Madhya Pradesh 53.8 58.0 27 28
Delhi 46.4 56.3 7 7
Himachal Pradesh 53.2 69.0 4 4
Uttarakhand 55.6 62.1 5 5
Chhattisgarh 49.7 50.2 10 9
Assam 37.1 39.1 7 9
Jammu & Kashmir 21.1 27.6 3 3
Haryana 34.9 57.8 7 10
Arunachal Pradesh 45.5 57.9 1 2
* In Rajasthan, the BJP contested 24 seats and formed alliance on one seat with the Rahtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP).
Source: Election Commission of India.
Kumar 7
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