Weathering climate change: Can institutions mitigate international water conflict?
| Published date | 01 January 2012 |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022343311427066 |
| Date | 01 January 2012 |
| Subject Matter | Research Articles |
Weathering climate change: Can
institutions mitigate international
water conflict?
Jaroslav Tir
University of Colorado Boulder
Douglas M Stinnett
University of Georgia
Abstract
Although the subject remains contested, some have speculated that climate change could jeopardize international
security. Climate change is likely to alter the runoff of many rivers due to changes in precipitation patterns. At the
same time, climate change will likely increase the demand for river water, due to more frequent droughts and greater
stress being placed on other sources of water. The resulting strain on transboundary rivers could contribute to inter-
national tensions and increase the risk of military conflict. This study nevertheless notes that the propensity for con-
flicts over water to escalate depends on whether the river in question is governed by a formal agreement. More
specifically, the article argues that the ability of river treaties to adapt to the increase in water stress resulting from
climate change will depend on their institutional design. It focuses on four specific institutional features: provisions
for joint monitoring, conflict resolution, treaty enforcement, and the delegation of authority to intergovernmental
organizations. Treaties that contain more of these features are expected to better manage conflicts caused by water
stress. This expectation is tested by analyzing historical data on water availability and the occurrence of militarized
conflict between signatories of river treaties, 1950–2000. The empirical results reveal that water scarcity does increase
the risk of military conflict, but that this risk is offset by institutionalized agreements. These results provide evidence,
albeit indirect, that the presence of international institutions can be an important means of adapting to the security
consequences of climate change by playing an intervening role between climate change and international conflict.
Keywords
climate change, environmental security, river treaties, water conflict, water cooperation
Despite consensus regarding the basic propositions that
climate change is real and will have serious ecological con-
sequences, there is much less certainty regarding its social
and political implications. It has been suggested, particu-
larly in policy circles, that the ecological effects of climate
change will lead to political instability and exacerbate the
risk of armed conflict (CNA, 2007). Speculation about
how climate change may endanger national security
encompasses a variety of possible mechanisms, including
extreme weather events and rising sea-levels; see Busby
(2008) for a comprehensive review. Nevertheless, state-
ments from public officials regarding the connection
between climate change and security have rarely been
based on peer-reviewed research (Nordås & Gleditsch,
2007; Salehyan,2008). Until recently,there were very few
systematic studies of the security consequences of climate
change for policymakers to draw on. This is beginning to
change as scholars are starting to movebeyond single-case
methods to address the possible connections between cli-
matic factors and intrastate conflict with large-sample
empirical studies.
Corresponding author:
jtir@colorado.edu
Journal of Peace Research
49(1) 211–225
ªThe Author(s) 2012
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DOI: 10.1177/0022343311427066
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