What Future for Employment?
| Published date | 01 January 1979 |
| Date | 01 January 1979 |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1108/eb054920 |
| Pages | 3-6 |
| Author | Peter Thornton,Verner Wheelock |
| Subject Matter | HR & organizational behaviour |
What
Future for
Employment?
by Peter Thornton and Verner Wheelock
School of Science and Society
University of Bradford
Introduction
Contemporary society is increasingly confronted with the
socio-economic problems generated by what has been
described as the end of industrial society and its transi-
tion to a post-industrial society. The most immediate
symptom of this transition process is the high rate of
unemployment being experienced by all the advanced
industrialised nations. The aggregate percentage of the
labour force unemployed in April 1978 in Canada was
8.6; in Italy 6.8; in Belgium 10.4; in Great Britain 5.8; in
West Germany 4.4; and in the United States 6.0.
Particularly disturbing is the high level of youth un-
employment which has represented an increasing pro-
portion of the total unemployed since 1968. In Great
Britain, for example, the proportion of young people
(under 25) among the unemployed has risen from 24 per
cent in 1968 to 45 per cent in 1976. In West Germany
the corresponding figures are 12 per cent and 26 per cent
and in France 20 per cent and 36 per cent [1].
The problems of unemployment and associated social
dislocation are producing dissatisfaction and unease
across wide sections of society and creating a general
lack of confidence in social, economic and political insti-
tutions as these fail to produce solutions. Indices of this
growing dissatisfaction are rising crime rates, vandalism,
political extremism and a general increase in social
violence.
If Western Society is to maintain its stability during
what will increasingly be a period of rapid and often
fundamental change a determined effort must be made to
understand the technological and economic forces which
are shaping the future. Only once this has been achieved
can the appropriate strategic responses be formulated
and government and business again give a positive lead
to society.
A Cyclical or Structural Problem
It is essential to recognise that this high level of unem-
ployment cannot simply be regarded as a passing eco-
nomic phenomenon—as a typical down-swing in the
business cycle. While it does have a cyclical element the
unemployment is related to a fundamental technological
change which is beginning to transform the economic/
industrial structure. This means that much of traditional
micro and macro theory is now becoming increasingly
irrelevant as new technologies fundamentally change
production systems and the industrial structure.
The industrial revolution is now in the process of being
superseded by the scientific revolution. In essence this
involves a shift from the mechanisation of production to
its automation. The invention of the micro-processor
(miracle chips) has been a catalystic factor in this de-
velopment.
The significance of the micro-processor lies in its
ability to enable the manufacture of small cheap com-
puters. To illustrate the major scientific/technological
break-through which the micro-processor represents it is
useful to take the analogy of building an electronic model
of the human brain. With valves the model would have
been approximately the size of Greater London, with
transistors it would have fitted into the Albert Hall and
with micro-processors into a small room. The new gen-
eration of micro-processors which should come on line
in 1980 will allow the model to actually be smaller than
the human brain. Each step has also been accompanied
by a considerable reduction in cost with the result that a
computer unit made out of micro-processors for use in
an industrial robot now costs only about $5,000—and the
price is still falling.
The micro-processor opens the way for the cybernation
of production systems—the replacement of man-machine
relationships in production with computer-machine rela-
"The industrial revolution
is now in the process
of being superseded by
the scientific revolution"
tionships. The Americans and Japanese are reputed to
be directing considerable R&D expenditure into the de-
velopment of industrial robots. Already, however, the use
of robots is widespread in heavy industry (e.g. steel) and
is being introduced on the production lines for manufac-
tured goods (e.g. cars). Fiat's robotised production line
has reduced the labour requirement from 105 semi-
skilled welders to 30 white collar maintenance workers.
The application of the new technologies in production
means that the enormous increases in productivity which
vastly reduced the labour requirements of the agricul-
tural sector in the course of a century are now beginning
to be paralleled in the manufacturing sector. It is becom-
ing increasingly apparent that any upturn in the existing
industrial economies which may occur will not have
either a significant or lasting impact on the problem of
unemployment. The declining needs of the manufactur-
ing sector, especially for unskilled labour, will almost
certainly be intensified by investment in new plant in-
volving as it will embodied technical progress.
In its 1977 Review and Plan the Manpower Services
Commission noted that the "consistent trend towards
more capital intensive methods of production is, in our
view, likely to continue" (Section 2.26) [2]. In fact, a
study conducted by the MSC of the investment plans of
Britain's 90 largest manufacturing firms revealed that
any new investment in capital equipment would result in
up to a wastage of 30 per cent of their labour forces—
Employee Relations
1,1
1979 3
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