Where is the EU–UK relationship heading? A conjoint survey experiment of Brexit trade-offs
| Author | Simon Hix,Clifton van der Linden,Joanna Massie,Mark Pickup,Justin Savoie |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/14651165221123155 |
| Published date | 01 March 2023 |
| Date | 01 March 2023 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
Where is the EU–UK
relationship heading?
A conjoint survey
experiment of Brexit
trade-offs
Simon Hix
Department of Political and Social Sciences, European University
Institute, Florence, Italy
Clifton van der Linden
Department of Political Science, McMaster University, Hamilton,
ON, Canada
Joanna Massie
Department of Political Science, McMaster University, Hamilton,
ON, Canada
Mark Pickup
Department of Political Science, Simon Fraser University, BC,
Canada
Justin Savoie
Department of Political Science, University of Toronto, Toronto,
ON, Canada
Abstract
The Trade and Cooper ation Agreement (TCA) is the start of a new relationship
between the UK and the European Union (EU). As the consequences of Brexit unfold,
there will be pressure to change the TCA, either in a “softer”or “harder”direction.
Corresponding author:
Simon Hix, Department of Political and Social Sciences, European University Institute, Badia Fiesolana, Via dei
Roccettini 9, 50014, San Domenico di Fiesole (FI), Florence, Italy.
Email: simon.hix@eui.eu
Article
European Union Politics
2023, Vol. 24(1) 184–205
© The Author(s) 2022
Article reuse guidelines:
sagepub.com/journals-permissions
DOI: 10.1177/14651165221123155
journals.sagepub.com/home/eup
To determine the potential medium-term direction of the EU–UK relationship, we
conducted a conjoint survey experiment with a sample of British voters, where we
asked them to choose between different hypothetical package deals. When faced with
such choices, British citizens overall mostly support a softer relationship in which the
UK applies EU regulatory standards in return for greater access to the single market.
However, Leave voters most often support a much harder trade-off of full regulator y
sovereignty but continued restrictions on UK exports.
Keywords
Brexit, conjoint experiment, external differentiation, public opinion
Introduction
To paraphrase Winston Churchill, the UK leaving the European Union (EU) on 31
January 2020 was “not the end”of Brexit, or perhaps even “the beginning of the end”,
but was in many ways “the end of the beginning.”In other words, Brexit is a process
that began with the referendum on 23 June 2016 and will continue for many years
after the UK’s formal exit from the EU. The Brexit agreement between the UK and
the EU, the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), established a new trading and gov-
ernance framework between the two partners. This agreement is the first stage of a new
relationship that will evolve over time. The implementation of the TCA will take many
years and issues will arise along the way that will need to be dealt with. In addition, as the
economic and political consequences of Brexit unfold, interests, attitudes, and positions
will change, which in turn will lead to pressure to change elements of the TCA or even to
scrap the TCA altogether and replace it with a different agreement. In short, the medium-
term relationship between the EU and the UK remains unknown. In this article, we
examine the preferences of British citizens with respect to this relationship to elucidate
the upcoming challenges for British and EU politicians.
The TCA is a particular version of “external differentiated integration”, an equilibrium
that resulted from the interests and actions of the UK and the EU between 2016 and 2020.
As preferences and actions change, the TCA equilibrium may not be stable and a new
equilibrium may emerge. To help understand the direction in which the TCA might
move over time, we identify the preferences of the British public over some of the key
issue dimensions of Brexit. A conventional approach would be to ask British citizens
about their preferences on each of these issue dimensions, one by one. For example,
do they prefer that the UK remains outside or rejoins the single market in order to
remove the new customs and regulatory checks? Do they want the UK to be free to set
its own regulatory standards or to apply and be bound by the EU’s regulatory framework?
Do they wish to maintain a complete end to the free movement of people between the EU
and the UK, or would they allow mutual free movement of highly skilled workers? Are
they willing to contribute to the EU budget so that the UK can participate in certain pro-
grams, such as the EU’s educational (Erasmus+) and research (Horizon Europe)
program? A similarly constructed survey would elicit majority opinions on each of
Hix et al. 185
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