Why Do Tories Defect to UKIP? Conservative Party Members and the Temptations of the Populist Radical Right
| DOI | 10.1111/1467-9248.12130 |
| Published date | 01 December 2014 |
| Author | Tim Bale,Paul Webb |
| Date | 01 December 2014 |
| Subject Matter | Research Note |
RESEARCH NOTE
Why Do Tories Defect to UKIP? Conservative
Party Members and the Temptations of the
Populist Radical Right
Paul Webb
University of Sussex
Tim Bale
Queen Mary University of London
This research note draws on a new survey to reveal a widespread willingness among current Conservative Party
members in Britain to countenance voting for the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) at future general
elections. Those most likely to do so are cultural conservatives, but they are not overly right-wing on the
distributional dimension of politics. They are particularly concerned about immigration and the European Union, do
not feel valued or respected by their own leadership and even regard David Cameron – their own party leader and
the country’s prime mnister – as ideologically more remote from them than UKIP. This serves to illustrate some of
the strategic dilemmas facing centre-right parties confronted by populist right challengers.
Keywords: Conservative Party; United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP); populism;
voting behaviour; party members
The rise of the populist radical right throughout Europe continues to preoccupy political
scientists, journalists and politicians.1The strength and significance of populist radical right
parties may be rising across Europe as the result of what some see as an inevitable shift to
‘cultural’, as opposed to ‘class’ voting (Kriesi et al., 2008; see also Rydgren, 2012; Van der
Brug and Van Spanje, 2009), but it varies considerably between countries, depending on
both supply-side and demand-side conditions (see Mudde, 2007; Norris, 2005). However,
where they become a big presence, such parties present a threat to ‘mainstream’, often
older parties: they compete with them for votes, while the need to respond to that threat
potentially promotes both inter-party conflict and intra-party strife as policy is adjusted in
response to the populist fringe.
Recent academic work, as well as elections and survey research, now suggests that Great
Britain, and especially England, is by no means immune to this phenomenon, with the rise
of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) ensuring that, at least for the
moment, the centre-right Conservative Party – one of the world’s oldest and most
successful political formations – is under pressure (see, e.g. Ford et al., 2012; Lynch et al.,
2012). The pressure is currently more indirect than direct in the sense that UKIP is not
likely actually to take seats from the Conservatives, but would instead cause them to lose
to Labour or the Liberal Democrats by attracting voters who probably would have voted
Tory (Conservative) in the absence of what they consider a credible populist radical right
candidate. However, given how close the next UK general election looks likely to be,
that indirect effect could mean the difference for the Conservatives between staying in
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doi: 10.1111/1467-9248.12130
POLITICAL STUDIES: 2014 VOL 62, 961–970
© 2014 The Authors. Political Studies © 2014 Political Studies Association
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