Why the NLD fails to consolidate democratic transition in Myanmar
| Date | 01 December 2021 |
| Author | Zayar Lay Swe |
| Published date | 01 December 2021 |
| DOI | 10.1177/20578911211039289 |
| Subject Matter | Research articles |
Why the NLD fails to
consolidate democratic
transition in Myanmar
Zayar Lay Swe
International University of Japan, Japan
Abstract
The general populace in Myanmar, as well as international observers, have expected that the
National League for Democracy (NLD) would be able to consolidate democratic transition,
since the latter obtained a certain degree of support from home and abroad. During the five
years of the NLD administration, transition has nevertheless been in regression instead of progres-
sion. All rating agencies (Freedom House, Bertelsmann, VDem) consider that Myanmar is not yet a
democracy. Freedom House’s report indicates that Myanmar’s status changed from ‘Partly Free’to
‘Not Free’in 2020. Much of the existing literature argues that this stems from the NLD having had
to operate within structural constraints and agency curbs. Therefore, this article will examine why
the NLD is unable to overcome these barriers, under which structural factors and what kind of
agency. The article argues that, instead of structure-altering, the NLD has reinforced structural
barriers without seeking any considerable leeway within the bounds of existing constraints. In
the context of structure, this article will examine the transition process itself, as well as constitu-
tional arrangements, the economic system, and the political culture. The agency context will
include the behaviours of the chief executive, the Tatmadaw, and the general populace.
Keywords
agency, democratic transition, NLD, structure, Tatmadaw
Introduction
Following the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s, many authoritarian regimes transitioned to
democracy. Meanwhile, Myanmar’s 1988 uprising ended one-party socialist authoritarianism, but
commenced military rule until 2010. Despite free, fair, and competitive elections—which largely
Corresponding author:
Zayar Lay Swe, International Relations Program, International University of Japan, Minamiuonuma, Niigata, Japan.
Email: zayarlay@iuj.ac.jp
Research article
Asian Journal of Comparative Politics
2021, Vol. 6(4) 441–467
© The Author(s) 2021
Article reuse guidelines:
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DOI: 10.1177/20578911211039289
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respected civil rights—not all of these transitions succeeded full democracy. The majority of transi-
tions have resulted in ‘flawed democracies’, in which political institutions function poorly, elected
officials and bureaucracies are less accountable, and citizens tend to be apathetic (Carothers, 2002;
Lehoucq, 2018). Myanmar’s Armed Forces (hereafter, the Tatmadaw) laid down the seven-step
roadmap to discipline-flourishing democracy in 2003, finally finishing and adopting the new con-
stitution in 2008. Subsequently, the Tatmadaw held general elections on 8 November 2010, one
year prior to the Arab Spring. Although many Arab countries quickly saw political turmoil
because of internal divisions, external interference, and the reluctance of established autocrats
(Diamond, 2019), Myanmar witnessed a smooth transition—from military rule to constitutional
rule. The USDP party, in line with the Tatmadaw, won elections and assumed office as a nominally
democratic government from 2011 to 2015.
The USDP administration conducted a process of liberalization and reforms which surprised
observers both at home and abroad. The process particularly included: after assuming office, the
then-President Thein Sein met with opposition leader, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi (hereafter, Daw
Suu), and amended the election and party registration laws in order for the NLD to re-enter the poli-
tical arena, and consequently his administration held a free and fair by-election in 2012 under the
observation of international observers and media, thereby bringing the NLD to transitional process;
his government released almost all political prisoners in the number of amnesty order and removed
thousands of names from its blacklists (BBC, 2015); the government abolished censorship for press
freedom in mid-2013, and the USDP-led parliament adopted the News Press Media laws and sub-
sequently the News Media Council materialized (Htut, 2019); the USDP administration held free
and fair general elections again in 2015 in the same manner as in 2012 and smoothly transferred
power to the NLD. In 2015, the NLD, a pro-democracy party, won a landslide victory in the
general elections and has been in office since 2016. While being under the preceding regimes,
the NLD received a certain degree of support from home and abroad. As such, the general populace
and international observers expected it to consolidate its democratic transition. The prestige of Daw
Suu and her rhetoric also boosted their hopes, but these have not materialized yet.
Contextually, Myanmar’s political transition was ‘a context-specific pacted transition’during
the USDP administration (2011–2015), whereas it was ‘a military-imposed transition’during the
military regime in the 2000s (Stokke and Aung, 2020). Likewise, its transition tentatively was a
‘pacted’transition in 2011–2012, but this was unlikely to consolidate beyond the post-2015 elec-
tion landscape since there had been a fragile dialogue and lack of compromise among a broader
spectrum of contending elites (Egreteau, 2016a). Alternatively, scholars of Myanmar’s politics
Praeger Nyein, Marco Bünte, and Roger Lee Huang depicted Myanmar’s transition as the institu-
tionalization of military dominance—by which the Tatmadaw planned to maintain power ‘by cre-
ating institutions that facilitate elite power-sharing and opposition co-optation’(Jones, 2014: 782).
The NLD administration, from 2016 onwards, has been described as a ‘stalled transition’, charac-
terized by low levels of trust in political institutions (NUPI, 2018), the centralization of decision-
making by the state counsellor (David and Holliday, 2018), inept cabinet members selected by
loyalty over ability, the stagnation of the peace process, a lack of business and public confidence
in the government’s economic policies, and the crisis in Rakhine and its consequences (ICG,
2018). David and Holliday (2018) saw both the NLD’s electoral victory and its taking office
deepen the country’s‘graduated transition away from authoritarian rule’. However, they depicted
the country’s political culture as a concept of ‘limited liberalism’,‘a blend of liberal and illiberal
attitudes’(David and Holliday, 2018) of both politicians and voters. They suggested that the
country will likely be in its current semi-democracy for the near future because of Daw Suu’s
442 Asian Journal of Comparative Politics 6(4)
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