Wiberg's Review Essay on Rummel: A Reply
| Date | 01 September 1983 |
| DOI | 10.1177/002234338302000309 |
| Author | Rudolph J. Rummel |
| Published date | 01 September 1983 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
Wiberg’s
Review
Essay
on
Rummel:
A
Reply
RUDOLPH
J.
RUMMEL
University
of
Hawaii
at
Manoa
Hdkan
Wiberg’
review
essay
(JPR,
No. 4,
1982)
on
my
five-volume
Understanding
Con-
flict
and
War
(UCW)
unintentionally
provides
an
empirical
test
of
an
error
assumption
I
ap-
plied
to
evaluate
my
propositions.
In
Volume
4
I
tabulated
the
analyses
of
317
quantitative
international
relations
studies
as
to
whether
they
supported
or
opposed
54
propositions
on
conflict,
war,
and
peace.
To
these
tabulations
I
also
applied
a
one-level
decrement
to
account
for
any
possible
bias
of
mine
in
favor
of
the
propositions
(see
Vol.
4,
Tables
15A.5,
16C.4,
17A.4,
and
18A.3).
The
overall
results
are
shown
in
Table
I,
below.
The
first
column
of
the
table
totals
my
assessment
of
how
well
714
analyses
support
the
54
propositions.*
The
second
column
is
the
critical
one
here.
It
tries
to
take
into
account
my
obvious
conflict
of
interest,
and
lowers
my
rating
accordingly
by
one
level
for
each
analysis.
Even
taking
my
possible
bias
into
account,
however,
the
evidence
still
shows
considerable
support
for
all
the
propositions.
But
this
begs
the
question:
is
my
one-level
decrement
for
bias
too
little
or
too
much?
To
determine
how
well
my
classification
of
their
support
accorded
with
his
own,
Wiberg
checked
25
of
the
published
analyses
I
used.
From
his
review,
we
get
the
following
com-
parison
in
Table
II,
below,
which
also
includes
my
assumed
one-level
decrement.
Now,
it
is
fair
to
say
that
Wiberg
finds
much
of
the
theory
and
philosophy
of
ICW
un-
congenial,
and
therefore,
if
anything,
has
a
bias
operating
in
the
opposite
direction
to
mine
in
evaluating
how
well
the
literature
supported
these
propositions.
It
is
therefore
noteworthy
that
the
results
of
his
evaluations
were
more
supportive
than
the
results
of
the
one-level
decrement
I
applied
to
compensate
for
my
own
bias.
This
first
’test’
of
the
decrement
thus finds
it
appropriately
conser-
vative.
Looking
back
at
Table
I,
then,
it
is
signi-
ficant
that
discounting
for
bias
by
this
one-level
decrement
still
leaves
on
balance
85
percent
more
analyses
positively
for
all
54
propositions
in
Table
I,
than
negative.
Table
I.
Number
of
Quantitative
International
Relations
Analyses
Supporting
or
Opposing
54
Propositions
on
Con-
flict, War
and
Peace
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