Breaking up is hard to do: The Neil Sedaka theory of independence referendums
| Published date | 01 November 2020 |
| DOI | 10.1177/0192512120903818 |
| Author | Matt Qvortrup |
| Date | 01 November 2020 |
| Subject Matter | Special Issue Articles |
https://doi.org/10.1177/0192512120903818
International Political Science Review
2020, Vol. 41(5) 638 –651
© The Author(s) 2020
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DOI: 10.1177/0192512120903818
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Breaking up is hard to do: The
Neil Sedaka theory of
independence referendums
Matt Qvortrup
Centre for Trust, Peace and Social Relations, Coventry University, UK
Abstract
This article analyses the factors conducive to recognising independence referendums and to winning these
votes. After a tour d’horizon of the history of referendums on independence and a summary of the legal
position, this article argues that independence referendums are most likely to be implemented when this
is in the interest of the three Western powers on the UN Security Council. While there is a statistically
significant correlation between the support for independence (the yes-vote) and international recognition,
this is much lower than the 100% association between support of the three permanent Western powers on
the Security Council and international recognition. Countries may cite legal, democratic and philosophical
principles, but the statistical and historical facts suggest that these are of secondary importance when it
comes to recognising states after independence referendums.
Keywords
Referendums, nationalism, independence, realism, international law
International politics is never about democracy and human rights. It’s about the interests of
states. Remember that, no matter what you are told in history lessons.
Egon Bahr, German Diplomat (1922–2015)
The context and development of independence referendums
This is an article about the recognition of new states and the role of referendums in the process.
Given the interdisciplinary nature of the topic (it straddles political science, law and even moral
philosophy), the article will consider the ethical arguments for secession and recognition, the legal
norms governing the process and the positive and political science theory of when would-be states
succeed in becoming recognised by the international community. Throughout, the article seeks to
understand the role of referendums in the process of establishing new states, and, as a corollary,
Corresponding author:
Matt Qvortrup, Centre for Trust, Peace and Social Relations, Coventry University, Cheetah Rd, Coventry, CV1 2TL,
UK.
Email: matt.qvortrup@coventry.ac.uk
903818IPS0010.1177/0192512120903818International Political Science ReviewQvortrup
research-article2020
Special Issue Article
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