Climate change and victimization risk: A disaggregated look at NCVS data
| DOI | 10.1177/0269758021992675 |
| Date | 01 January 2022 |
| Author | Dennis Mares,Ekaterina Gorislavsky |
| Published date | 01 January 2022 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
Article
Climate change and
victimization risk:
A disaggregated look
at NCVS data
Ekaterina Gorislavsky
Southern Illinois University Edwardsville, USA
Dennis Mares
Southern Illinois University Edwardsville, USA
Abstract
The current studyuses pooled National Crime Victimization Surveydata (1992–2015) to examine if
the relationship between climate change and victimization risk is modified by victim and incident
characteristics. Panel analysis yields interesting findings. First, results mirror those found in prior
studies utilizing Uniform Crime Report data, providing another indication that the link between a
warming climateand crime may be quite robust. Second,the results indicate that climaticeffects may
play out differently in differentcontexts. For example, outdoor victimizations, especiallythose near a
person’s residence, appear increasingly elastic during anomalously warm temperatures. In addition,
subpopulations (males and African Americans) are also at increased risk of victimization. Our results
effectively suggest that at-risk populations are more vulnerable to climatic variability.
Keywords
Climate, victimization risk, victim characteristics, incident characteristics
Introduction
Over the past decade, climate change has been increasingly recognized as a ubiquitous factor in
shaping human behavior (see Carleton and Hsiang, 2016 for an overview). At the same time, the
empirical relationship between climate change and violence has been uncovered in a variety of
Corresponding author:
Ekaterina Gorislavsky, Criminal Justice Studies, 1208 Peck Hall, Southern Illinois University Edwardsville, Edwardsville,
IL 62026, USA.
Email: egorisl@siue.edu
International Review of Victimology
2022, Vol. 28(1) 52–68
ªThe Author(s) 2021
Article reuse guidelines:
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DOI: 10.1177/0269758021992675
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settings: from domestic violence in India (Sekhri and Storeygard, 2013) and Australia (Auliciems
and DiBartolo, 1995), assaults in Nigeria (Badiora et al., 2017), assaults and homicides in the USA
(McDowall and Curtis. 2015; Ranson, 2014) and Tanzania (Miguel, 2005), rapes and vio lent
robberies in China (Hu et al., 2017), ethnic violence within Europe (Anderson et al., 2013), to
civil conflicts throughout the world (Bergholt and Lujala, 2012; Hsiang and Burke, 2014; Hsiang
et al., 2013). Effectively, crime increases as climates warm (Burke et al., 2009; Burke et al., 2015;
Carleton and Hsiang, 2016; Hsiang et al., 2013; Ranson, 2014; Rinderu et al., 2018, and others).
Not surprisingly, with rapidly accumulating evidence of a global climate change, more and
more studies focus on the effects of climate change on the rates of violent offending (Anderson and
Delisi, 2011; Anderson et al., 1997; Hsiang et al., 2013; Mares, 2013a, 2013b; Mares and Moffett,
2016, 2019; Ranson, 2014; Rotton and Cohn, 2003; Williams et al., 2015). Previous US national-
level studies have relied on Uniform Crime Report (UCR) data during their examination of the
relationship between climate change and crime (see Ranson, 2014; Rotton and Cohn, 2003; Harp
and Karnauskas, 2018; Mares and Moffett, 2019). Nonetheless, the general consensus from this
burgeoning literature is that a warming climate results in higher levels of crime.
Though UCR data are well established and possess important strengths, they also come with
serious limitations. One of the issues with the UCR is that it only contains information on crimes
reported to the police, which makes it possible that results based on UCR data may be the outcome
of a reporting bias. Another serious limitation of UCR data is that they contain only summary
statistics for index offenses, although Supplementary Homicide Reports fill some gaps for homi-
cides. The inability to disaggregate UCR data makes it difficult to examine contextual causal
linkages between climate variables and crime and understand the impact of weather events across
criminal contexts.
In the current study we employ National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) data from the
United States to address the aforementioned concerns and answer whether data disaggregation may
help us better understand the climate-crime relationship. To do so, we provide a comparison of
UCR and NCVS data and explore several disaggregated crime incident dimensions, including the
location of the incident, race, and gender. Results of analysis indicate NCVS data mirror tempera-
ture impacts found in UCR data, but, in addition, we find that climate change effects may dis-
proportionally influence individuals already at risk for victimization. The key findings in this study
have important implications for policymakers, practitioners, and the public, and may improve
predictive, preventative, and reactive policing.
Literature review and theoretical framework
A long tradition of criminological research has produced compelling evidence to support the link
between weather and crime (DeFronzo, 1984; Mares, 2013b; Quetelet, 1842; Ranson, 2014;
Rotton, 1986; Rotton and Cohn, 2003). Prior studies have examined a broad array of meteorolo-
gical factors including temperature, sunlight, p recipitation, wind, and humidity (Cohn, 1990),
although national level research typically limits its focus to the effects of temperature on crime
(Anderson and DeLisi, 2011; Gamble and Hess, 2012; Harp and Karnauskas, 2018; Mares and
Moffett, 2019; Ranson, 2014). Research typically finds stronger predicted effects for temperature
than for other climatic variables, such as precipitation. Some scholars exploring daily data have
found evidence to support the effects of precipitation on crime (Horrocks and Menclova, 2011;
Hsiang et al., 2013; Jacob et al., 2007). Using monthly levels of aggregation, however, may wash
out rarer events such as extreme heat and precipitation (Field, 1992; Mares, 2013a; Ranson, 2014).
Gorislavsky and Mares 53
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