Decision to Emigrate amongst the Youth in Lebanon
| Author | Ghassan Dibeh,Ali Fakih,Walid Marrouch |
| Published date | 01 February 2018 |
| Date | 01 February 2018 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/imig.12347 |
Decision to Emigrate amongst the Youth in
Lebanon
Ghassan Dibeh*, Ali Fakih* and Walid Marrouch*
ABSTRACT
This article studies the determinants of youth emigration decisions, which is considered one of
the main causes of ‘Brain Drain’in Arab Mediterranean Countries (AMCs). We focus on the
case of Lebanon using a unique dataset covering young people aged 15 to 29 from the year
2016. The aim of the article is to identify the profile of youth’s propensity to emigrate from
Lebanon. The empirical results indicate that youth from non-wealthy backgrounds living in
smaller dwellings have a higher propensity to emigrate. It is also found that being male and
unemployed has a positive effect on migration. Moreover, university education promotes the
willingness to emigrate; while residents of poor regions are more likely to express such will-
ingness. Finally, the article provides some insights for policymakers.
1. INTRODUCTION
Youth emigration, encouraged by political instability and social fractionalization, is considered one of
the main causes of ‘Brain Drain’in Arab Mediterranean Countries (AMCs) (Docquier et al., 2007). In
Lebanon, youth emigration has negatively affected economic growth and the accumulation of human
capital. It has also acted as a channel for the youth to cope with unemployment, lack of long-term
career prospects, and rigid social mobility. The objective of this article is to explore empirically a
number of socio-economic drivers behind the decision of youth to emigrate from Lebanon.
The economics literature on international migration is classified into three lines of research (Bor-
jas, 1989; Borjas and Bratsberg, 1996): the determinants of migration flows, the integration of
migrants in host countries, and the economic impact of migration in origin and host country. This
study falls within the first line of research that investigates the determinants of migration flows.
The study of these determinants allows policymakers to identify areas for policy intervention to
mitigate the negative implications of this phenomenon. This is especially important for Lebanon,
where emigration is negatively affecting the economic system and demographic structure. Specifi-
cally, we explore the role of microeconomic factors using a unique dataset from Lebanon covering
young people aged 15 to 29. This empirical investigation using microdata enhances our understand-
ing of the decision of youth to emigrate from Lebanon. To the best of our knowledge, this is the
first study that aims to quantify these effects using a comprehensive and representative dataset on
the youth population in the country.
According to the World Bank, it is estimated that the average net migration rate in Lebanon is
21.29 per 1000 inhabitants over the period 2010-2015 (World Development Indicators, 2015).
1
Over that period, the migration rate in Lebanon is positive because of the Syrian refugees’influx
into Lebanon in the aftermath of the Syrian crisis that has been ongoing since 2011. To put that
* Department of Economics, Lebanese American University, P.O.Box: 13–5053, Chouran Beirut 1102 2801, Lebanon
doi: 10.1111/imig.12347
©2017 The Authors
International Migration ©2017 IOM
International Migration Vol. 56 (1) 2018
ISSN 0020-7985Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
number in perspective, it is important to know that the current stock of Syrian refugees in Lebanon
is around one million refugees, which is around one fourth of the Lebanese population. However,
between the end of the civil war in 1990 and 2010, the rate has been either negative or zero, which
indicates an underlying strong emigration trend. In 2015, according to the United Nations, the total
stock of Lebanese emigrants stood at around 1.9 million out of a total population of 4.5 million,
with females constituting around 52 per cent of emigrants. Additional data from the same source
shows that those aged between 20 and 64 years constitute the majority of emigrants. They
accounted for 50.7 per cent of emigrants in 2015, while those below aged 20 years constituted 46
per cent (United Nations, 2015). These figures show that in Lebanon, youth emigration is a signifi-
cant phenomenon.
In this respect, examining factors affecting the decision of youth to emigrate calls for understand-
ing the context that “pushes”young people to leave their country of origin (push factors) in addi-
tion to the context in the host country that creates better opportunities for the migrant youth (pull
factors). Both push and pull factors can be classified into macroeconomic and microeconomic dri-
vers. Push and pull factors are examined in studies on emigration (e.g. Akokpari, 2000; Cairns and
Smyth, 2011; Hare, 1999; Jenkins, 1977). From a microeconomic or socio-economic perspective,
push factors relate to the economic environment of the household in which youth live, while pull
factors are intimately related to the macroeconomic ones in host countries since they define the
expected living conditions of the emigrant.
2
In fact, household characteristics represent a major eco-
nomic factor that pushes young people to emigrate. Such factors include parents’income, the size
of the household, geographic location, among others. Exploring these microeconomic factors is the
main objective of this article, which aims to understand the role of the socio-economic factors that
may affect the propensity to emigrate amongst the youth in Lebanon. Specifically, it focuses on the
implications of youth, household, and regional characteristics using a probit model.
The remainder of the article is organized as follows. In Section 2, we provide a historical back-
ground on emigration in Lebanon. In Section 3, an overview of the related literature on the deter-
minants of migration is presented. In Section 4, we present the research methodology including the
data, the variables of interest, and the estimation techniques. In Section 5, we present the empirical
results. In Section 6, we discuss policy implications and concluding remarks.
2. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
Modern Lebanese emigration goes back to the nineteenth century and has witnessed four migratory
waves. During the nineteenth century, Lebanese mostly migrated to Latin America, escaping internal
and external conflicts and the dire conditions generated by economic crises in the hope of finding bet-
ter living conditions and fortunes abroad. In contrast, today, highly skilled Lebanese choose to move
to Arab Gulf countries such as Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates
(Migration Policy Center, 2013) in search of jobs and higher wages. As such, each wave has had dif-
ferent characteristics and patterns, yet almost all waves had a predominant youth component.
The first wave, which took place under the Ottoman Empire between 1880 and 1914, was pro-
moted by accommodating immigration policies in the Americas towards Christian subjects of the
Ottoman Empire. Emigration began to increase during the second half of the ninetheenth century,
long before the creation of the state of Lebanon. ‘Syrio-Lebanese’was the term used to describe
the emigrants from Ottoman provinces of Greater Syria. During that period, it was estimated that
around 100,000 ‘Syrio-Lebanese’left their home country. In the 1890s, Lebanese migration was
not simply restricted to searching for a better life; young Lebanese migrated to avoid Ottoman mili-
tary drafts as well. Others chose to migrate to emulate the success of their earlier brethren living
abroad (Fersan, 2010). Proto-Lebanese migrants mainly left to Egypt and the United States; usually
6Dibeh, Fakih and Marrouch
©2017 The Authors. International Migration ©2017 IOM
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