A Design for a Link Model of Manpower Planning in the Local Labour Market with Relevance to the Employing Organisation and the National Labour Market
| Date | 01 March 1982 |
| Published date | 01 March 1982 |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1108/eb055458 |
| Pages | 3-10 |
| Author | I.G. Smith |
| Subject Matter | HR & organizational behaviour |
A
Design
for
a
Link
Model of Manpower Planning in the
Local Labour Market with Relevance to the Employing
Organisation and the National Labour Market
by I. G. Smith
University College, Cardiff
Introduction
Despite the interest in manpower planning which grew con-
siderably during the sixties and seventies, there has been
continuing doubt about the degree of commitment at
organisational level[1] and about the success of any
government attempt at planning at national level[2]. But
the effective management, utilisation and planning of the
human resource within the British economy remains a
prime interest for all parties. Manpower planning may ap-
pear to be an ephemeral technique, but, if this is so, it is
not because the problem it was directed towards has gone
away.
Shortages of certain categories of manpower, particular-
ly skilled and semi-skilled people, mis-matches of people
and jobs, redundancy programmes unrelated to future
manpower requirements, and the inability of many
managers to determine accurately manpower requirements
in times of recession and expansion are some of the factors
which underline the need for manpower planning to be
considered by personnel managers in the recessionary con-
ditions of the early 1980s. At the time of writing, this
writer is advising two engineering companies which are
short of skilled labour after implementing redundancy pro-
grammes. The root cause of this situation is a failure by the
personnel departments to forecast adequately shop-floor
requirements. With adequate manpower forecasts linked
to market and production schedules, the problem could
have been avoided. Both companies are now in the process
of recruting skilled labour to make up deficiencies. "Rule
of Thumb" or "Wet Thumb in the Air" decisions about
manpower can be as disastrous in recession as in condi-
tions of economic growth. Manpower planning can pro-
vide the means for personnel managers to operate "close
in" to the parameters which determine the firm's man-
power requirements — a desirable feature in contraction
and expansion. Indeed, more precision in the forecasts and
decisions about markets and production is a notable
feature of firms which are successfully "battling" and cop-
ing with the recession. It is singularly disappointing,
however, that the personnel departments of these firms
cannot match such precision in their forecasts and support
to line management decisions about manpower. Corporate
performance in times of stress depends on manpower plans
as much as corporate, market, production, finance,
research and development and acquisition plans.
Much of the work on manpower planning within Britain
has been directed at the level of the firm to provide an im-
proved process for the measurement, allocation, and
forecasting of manpower. Quite often, managerial and
trade union attitudes have been an obstacle to acceptance,
and many manpower planning experts have emphasised
the need for manpower to be seen as an "asset" to provide
justification for the application of manpower planning[3].
Against this background of manpower planning at enter-
prise level, macro-level planning has been somewhat
neglected. Manpower planning is appropriate to the
organisation and the labour market, and the link between
the two is deserving of serious attention. Development of a
purpose for manpower planning in the labour market is the
concern of what follows, in the belief that effective plann-
ing in this market system will allow for improved monitor-
ing of manpower developments in a manner which may
have relevance to employment and industry policies, and
provide greater justification for manpower planning in the
employing organisation.
This article contains recommendations based on
research in the Cardiff local labour market, carried out by
the writer during the late 70s. Close co-operation with the
Department of Employment and many companies provid-
ed a basis for the ideas concerning a "local labour market
manpower plan". Within the Cardiff market, the evolving
problems of employment and industrial structure, the lack
of uniformity in market characteristics, and the failures of
interventionist policies, formulated by local and central
government agencies, were manifested in the rapid decline
of manufacturing industry and the growth of service sector
employment. Between 1966 and 1976, the numbers
employed in manufacturing fell from 41,000 to 31,000, or
from 32 per cent to
21
per cent of total numbers employed.
During the same period, numbers in service sector employ-
ment rose from 93,000 to 114,000, or from 68 per cent to
78 per cent of total numbers employed. Additionally, the
growth in service sector employment added ten per cent
more male and 34 per cent more female white collar
employees to the market employment patterns. In this pro-
cess of a decline in manufacturing, growth in services and
change in overall employment levels, there is a
"push-pull" effect. Manufacturing industries "push"
workers on to the market and service industries "pull"
them into white collar employment.
The above data briefly highlight a local labour market
with developing employment and industry structures at
odds with the aims of intervention policies and plans
developed by the Welsh Office and local government agen-
cies.
The substitution of service sector for manufacturing
industry, white collar for manual jobs and, indeed, female
employees for male employees, has left Cardiff without the
labour force to attract more manufacturing industry.
Policies, plans and actions, designed for the Cardiff labour
market, were not appropriate to the problems faced by the
market and its constituent institutions; indeed, they actual-
ly accelerated the decline of manufacturing and the growth
of service sector employment. Underpinning such interven-
tionist programmes by a manpower planning approach,
tailored to the reality of labour market behaviour, may
have avoided the difficulties pinpointed above and raised
Link Model | 3
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