Drug offence detection during the pandemic: An ARIMA analysis of rates and regional differences in Queensland, Australia
| Author | Cameron T Langfield,Toni Makkai,Jason L Payne |
| Published date | 01 September 2021 |
| Date | 01 September 2021 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/00048658211007532 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
Article
Drug offence detection
during the pandemic:
An ARIMA analysis of rates
and regional differences in
Queensland, Australia
Cameron T Langfield and
Jason L Payne
School of Health and Society, University of Wollongong,
Wollongong, Australia
Toni Makkai
Centre for Social Research and Methods, Australian National
University, Canberra, Australia
Abstract
Public commentary has offered mixed opinion on the likely impact of COVID-19 restrictions
on drug-related offending. On the one hand, it is argued that drug users – and the drug
markets in which they interact – may have become the incidental targets of law enforcement
as police seek to enforce social distancing regulations by focusing their efforts on street-level
pedestrian activity or open-air gatherings. On the other, interstate border closures and
restrictions on person and freight traffic are thought to have interrupted illicit drug supply
chains, temporarily reducing or displacing market activity at the street level and thus reducing
police detections of drug users. In this study, we extend current analyses of crime during the
COVID-19 pandemic to explore how the rate of police detection for drug possession and
other drug-related offences has changed. Using crime data from the Australian state of
Queensland, we use Auto-Regressive Integrated and Moving Average time series modelling
techniques to explore historical trends and their dynamic forecasts. We then compare actual
offence rates for March through June to identify any statistically significant changes. We find
that reported drug offences significantly vary across time and location highlighting that the
impact of COVID-19 is not universal across Queensland. Thus, the significant heterogeneity
in local drug market dynamics that has elsewhere been documented remains even in a major
Corresponding author:
Cameron T Langfield, School of Health and Society, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, Australia.
Email: ctl090@uowmail.edu.au
Journal of Criminology
!The Author(s) 2021
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DOI: 10.1177/00048658211007532
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2021, Vol. 54(3) 344–364
crisis with significant changes in policing activity and resource allocation. Our analysis has
significant import for criminal justice practitioners in further understanding drug market
dynamics and drug-related offending during COVID-19 restrictions.
Keywords
COVID-19, crime, drug possession, drug-related offending, policing activity
Date received: 5 November 2020; accepted: 15 March 2021
Introduction
COVID-19, the disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2
(SARS-CoV-2), was declared a global pandemic by the World Health Organization
(2020) on 11 March 2020. Not since the 1918 Spanish Flu has the world experienced
such a wide-reaching public health crisis; one that has resulted in unprecedented public
health and economic measures aimed at reducing the spread of the virus and mitigating
economic consequences, respectively. In response, Australia moved quickly to imple-
ment a number of policies in an effort to reduce the rate of transmission within the
community. These efforts have included, but were not limited to, the closure of schools,
the closure of most non-essential businesses and the closure of international borders
with a 14-day quarantine period for all returning travellers. Furthermore, these restric-
tions also extended to limits on public and street-based gatherings (up to two people)
and the federal government advised Australians to only leave their homes for exercise,
essential shopping, to access medical services, and for work/education activities that
could not be completed remotely (see also Payne et al., 2020, 2021). Without question,
the advent of this global pandemic and the introduction of wide-reaching mobility and
physical distancing measures represent a unique, once-in-a-generation opportunity for
both the policy and research sectors.
Here in Australia, the rate of COVID-19 infection and transmission has remained
relatively low. The majority of early Australian COVID-19 cases had acquired their
infection from overseas travel, or from contact with a confirmed case who had travelled
overseas (Australian Department of Health, 2020c). Nationwide, containment measures
were coordinated by the federal government through the National Cabinet (see
Bonyhady & Duke, 2020), though individual states and territories had autonomy in
choosing which restrictions to implement, and the timeline upon which to implement
them. Queensland was decisive in its response to COVID-19 and was the first Australian
state to declare a public health emergency under the Public Health Act 2005 on 29
January 2020 (Queensland Department of the Premier and Cabinet, 2020). In addition
to the widespread restrictions already introduced by the federal government,
Queensland borders were closed on 26 March (Queensland Government, 2020a) and
interstate travel was restricted to only residents, and individuals living in border com-
munities undertaking essential services and activities (Queensland Government, 2020a).
School closures came into effect on 30 March and were only open for children of
essential service workers (Welburn, 2020). In early April, further restrictions were
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Langfield et al.
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