Explanations of the Decline in Trade Union Density In Britain: an Appraisal
| Date | 01 July 1990 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8543.1990.tb00361.x |
| Author | Richard Disney |
| Published date | 01 July 1990 |
British
Journal
of
Industrial
Relations
28:2
July
1990
0007-1080
$3.00
Explanations
of
the Decline in Trade
Union Density In Britain: an Appraisal
Richard
Disney*
The decline in the proportion
of
workers belonging to trade unions in Britain
in the
1980s
has been explained in a variety
of
ways; by macroeconomic
conditions (the ‘business cycle’ model), by a changing composition of
employment, and through changes in labour legislation. This paper argues
that varying macroeconomic conditions are the dominant explanation
of
membership trends in the
1980s
and, indeed, the postwar period in general.
Previous ‘business cycle’ models have failed to forecast the downturn in the
1980s
because
of
model misspecification.
A
general model
of
membership is
also constructed, in which the determinants of coverage are explicitly
separated from the determinants of individual membership.
1.
INTRODUCTION
The purpose
of
this brief paper is to examine some recent explanations
of
the
decline in trade union density in Britain in the
1980s.
The extent
of
the
decline
is
known well enough but, to refresh memories, Figure
1
graphs the
trend in overall density, defined as membership divided by employment,
using the figures
of
membership notified to the Certification Office.‘ The
series is plotted from
1952,
and, as some commentators have pointed out,
given the slow secular decline in density in the
1950s
and early
1960%
it is
perhaps the upsurge in density in the
1970s
rather than the abrupt decline in
the
1980s
which needs an explanation. Indeed, one suitable test for the
various hypotheses appraised here is whether their explanation is symmetri-
cal, that is, explaining upturn as well as downturn. Some ‘explanations’
of
union decline, such as compositional effects, fall at this very first hurdle.’
If there is some sort
of
consensus in the literature, it is that no one
explanation
of
union decline is particularly successful. Kelly and Richardson
(1989)
point to the lack
of
explanatory power
of
a business cycle model
of
trade union membership, an argument apparently confirmed by Booth
(1989)
using her own version
of
the business cycle model (Booth
1983).
*University
of
Kent at Canterbury
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