Geopolitical shifts, great power relations and Norway’s foreign policy
| Date | 01 March 2011 |
| DOI | 10.1177/0010836710396784 |
| Author | Øystein Tunsjø |
| Published date | 01 March 2011 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
Article
Cooperation and Conflict
46(1) 60–77
© The Author(s) 2011
Reprints and permission: sagepub.
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DOI: 10.1177/0010836710396784
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Geopolitical shifts, great
power relations and
Norway’s foreign policy
Øystein Tunsjø
Abstract
This article examines how geopolitical shifts and the potential emergence of either a bipolar
or multipolar system will affect the transatlantic relationship and a small state on the margins
of power centres. A more Asia-centred world and a new polarity could drive a wedge into the
transatlantic relationship. It is therefore explored how the US and the EU can develop hedging and
risk management strategies that are complementar y and take into account diverging capabilities,
political structures, different threat perceptions of China and the effects of a potential new polarity.
It is also noted that Norway will need a sophisticated foreign policy if it wants to approach the
EU’s position related to China, while simultaneously sustaining close relations with a US that is
becoming more preoccupied with China and continues to shift more of its resources towards
Asia. A hedging strategy can guide Norwegian policy-makers to meet such challenges.
Keywords
balancing, European Union, geopolitics, great powers, hedging, NATO, Norway, risk management,
transatlantic relations
Introduction
Asia is emerging as the centre of world politics and China is the only great power recog-
nized as capable of challenging US dominance (QDR, 2006: 29). This article focuses on
the challenges to transatlantic relations, the EU and to an Atlanticist state outside the
EU – Norway – as economic and military power concentrate in Asia. What are the
implications as the US becomes more preoccupied with Chinese and Asian affairs and
gives diminished priority to European concerns and interests?
It is argued that an ‘Asian century’, combined with a potential transition to either a
bipolar (US–China) or multipolar international system, could drive a wedge into the
transatlantic relationship. Three considerations underlying this proposition are sug-
gested. First, a potential ‘Asia first’ priority in US strategy may undermine transatlantic
Corresponding author:
Øystein Tunsjø, Department of International Security Policy, Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies,
Skippergata 17c, PO Box 890 Sentrum, Oslo, Norway
[email: oystein.tunsjo@ifs.mil.no]
Tunsjø 61
ties (Talmadge, 2009). Second, the US might consider Russia, rather than the EU or
major European powers, to be a more useful and willing balancer to China’s rising power,
especially if a US–China bipolar system emerges. Closer ties between the US and Russia
could create tensions in transatlantic ties because increased Russian leverage could
compromise European interests. Third, if a more multipolar world emerges concentrated
around the relationship among the great powers in Asia (China, Japan, US, Russia and
India), systemic pressures might push the EU toward a more cohesive European Security
and Defence Policy (ESDP) in order to ensure its influence. A common ESDP could
become a bloc within NATO, or be perceived as such by the US, which might compro-
mise transatlantic cooperation. Conversely, hedging strategies might sustain benign con-
temporary great power relations and facilitate a potential division of labour to consolidate
transatlantic ties.
It is acknowledged that major powers make the most difference in world affairs.
Nevertheless, we should not lose sight of smaller states. Thus, the analysis considers how
Norway is affected by great power relations and systemic changes. Few studies have
addressed how China’s rise, contemporary relations among the great powers and the tran-
sition toward a new polarity may affect Norway’s foreign relations (St.prp. nr. 48 and
St.meld nr. 15). Indeed, this is one of the first studies to examine how the rise of China
directly or indirectly shapes Norwegian foreign policy. It is argued that a hedging strategy
has the potential to accommodate the geopolitical effects of China’s rise, the emergence
of a new polarity and the complexity of maintaining close ties with both the EU and the
US as Norway’s closest allies may take different approaches in their relations with China.
Although the analysis is not preoccupied with small state studies per se, it seeks to
contribute to this literature in two ways. First, by showing how a small state like Norway
is affected by changes in the international system and great power relations, more merit
and understanding can be added to the notion that these factors, presumably, are more
important than domestic factors in explaining small states’ foreign policies (Neumann et
al., 2006; Kassimeris, 2009: 86). Second, by disputing the assumption that small states
have limited capabilities and influence (Thorhallson, 2000), it is proposed that by study-
ing small states behaviour we gain knowledge about their potential power, influence and
what distinguishes them from other states (Fox, 1959; Vital, 1971; Maass, 2009;
Kassimeris, 2009: 89 f.).
The article consists of three sections. The first points to the challenges for transatlan-
tic ties as the world becomes more Asia-centred by assessing how a transition toward a
multipolar or a bipolar system might affect EU and transatlantic relations. The second
section explores how hedging strategies and a division of labour may sustain close trans-
atlantic ties. The third section examines how the interactions among the great powers
have important spillover effects on Norway’s foreign and security policy. A brief conclu-
sion summarizes the main arguments.
Transitional period
The re-emergence of great powers in Asia is changing the international system. An Asia-
centred world is emerging (Zakaria, 2008 and Mahbubani, 2008). Former European Union
Commissioner Benito Ferrero-Waldner has acknowledged that ‘Asia will no doubt be the
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