Homicide concentration and retaliatory homicide near repeats: An examination in a Latin American urban setting
| DOI | 10.1177/0032258X20980503 |
| Author | Spencer Chainey,Robert Muggah |
| Published date | 01 June 2022 |
| Date | 01 June 2022 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
2022, Vol. 95(2) 255 –275
Article
Homicide concentration
and retaliatory homicide
near repeats: An
examination in a Latin
American urban setting
Spencer Chainey
Jill Dando Institute of Security and Crime Science, University College
London, London, UK
Robert Muggah
Igarap´
e Institute, Botafogo, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Abstract
Despite numerous attempts to decrease homicides in the Latin American region, high
homicide levels have persisted. Examining four cities in Riode Janeiro, the research reveals
the intensegeographic concentration of homicides in each city,but illustrates differences in
theextent of homicideconcentrationwhen using a varietyof crime concentrationmeasures.
Singleevents involving multiplehomicides anda homicidenear repeat patternare observed,
with almost allthese incidents taking placein areas of homicide concentration. The findings
suggest that programmes targeted to areas of homicide concentration, includinginterven-
tions that suppress the likelihoodof future incidents, could decrease homicides.
Keywords
Crime concentration, group account, homicide near repeat victimisation, multiple
homicides
Introduction
Countries in Latin America register homicide rates that are typically four times greater
than those experienced in other parts of the world (UNODC, 2020). The region consists
Corresponding author:
Spencer Chainey, Jill Dando Institute of Security and Crime Science, University College London, 35 Tavistock
Square, London, UK.
Email: s.chainey@ucl.ac.uk
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256 The Police Journal: Theory, Practice and Principles 95(2)
of just eight percent of the world’s population, but experiences 30 percent of the world’s
homicidal violence (UNODC, 2019). The situation is expected to worsen if little is done
or if measures to tackle homicide are not successful (Eisner, 2016; Vilalta, 2015). Most
studies examining homicide in Latin America have analysed how structural factors such
as governance, demographic cha racteristics, and socio-econ omic variables influence
levels of homicide. Although these findings are valuable in helping to indicate the causes
of homicide, all tend to rely on multi-sectoral responses to address these causes (Cano
and Rojido, 2016, Neumayer, 2003). Merited as they are, organising multiple agencies to
respond in coordination to these structural causes can be challenging. In addition, as the
responsibility to decrease violence is most usually directed to security ministries and
police agencies to lead, addressing factors such as social inequality can be difficult for
them to influence.
Programmes that are targeted to specific places offer an alternative and complemen-
tary approach to interventions that aim to address structural causes, and have had a
significant and more immediate impact in decreasing violent crime (Braga et al.,
2019; Braga et al., 2014; Braga and Weisburd, 2012). Geographically-focused crime
reduction activities draw from the well-established observation that crime concentrates
at places and that these patterns of c rime concentration are highly stabl e over time
(Sherman et al., 1989; Weisburd et al., 2012). This observation has led Weisburd
(2015) to claim that a law of crime concentration exists in all settings. Recent studies
have begun to identify the high concentrations of crime that are present in Latin Amer-
ican cities (Chainey et al., 2019), however policies for decreasing violent crime in the
region continue to have a macro rather than micro level focus (Cano and Rojido, 2016;
Muggah et al., 2016). Other studies have also shown that where crime has previously
concentrated is considered to reliably predict where most crime will occur in the future
(Chainey et al., 2008; Drawve, 2014). If patterns of homicide are observed to geogra-
phically concentrate in Latin American urban environments, the geographic targeting of
homicide reduction programmes to areas of previous homicide concentration could offer
promise in helping to decrease homicides.
A substantial body of research also suggests that repeat and near repeat patterns of
crime can act as useful predictors for where crime is likely to occur (Bowers et al., 2004).
Repeat victimisation is the concept of a person, some other target, or a single location
(e.g., a house or street junction) being subject to victimisation a number of times, with
these repeats occurring quickly after the initial incident (Farrell and Pease, 1993, 2017;
Polvi et al., 1991). Near repeat victimisation is the observation that targets near to a
recent incident are at an increased risk of being victimised, with these nearby incidents
more likely to take place soon after the initial incident (Johnson and Bowers, 2004;
Townsley et al., 2003). The observations of repeat and near repeat patterns of crime have
been used to inform the design of successful crime reduction programmes that aim to
prevent repeat incidents (Chainey et al., 2018; Everson and Pease, 2001; Fielding and
Jones, 2012).
Repeat victimisation of homicide against the same person, for obvious reasons, is not
possible, however, single incidents involving more than one homicide bear similarities to
the patterning features of repeat victimisation (i.e., multiple offences at the same loca-
tion). Hence, an examination of the distribution of single incidents involving more than
2The Police Journal: Theory, Practice and Principles XX(X)
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