Interlocking peace processes: Between competing and complementing peacemaking efforts in interlocking conflicts
| Published date | 01 December 2023 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/00108367221145828 |
| Author | Lior Lehrs |
| Date | 01 December 2023 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
https://doi.org/10.1177/00108367221145828
Cooperation and Conflict
2023, Vol. 58(4) 485 –501
© The Author(s) 2022
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DOI: 10.1177/00108367221145828
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Interlocking peace processes:
Between competing and
complementing peacemaking
efforts in interlocking conflicts
Lior Lehrs
Abstract
What is the dialectical influence between interlocking peace processes? The scholarship in the
field of conflict analysis has identified the occurrence of “interlocking conflicts”—namely, linked
conflicts that affect each other—but less attention has been drawn to the linkages between
efforts to resolve them. The article focuses on the phenomenon of “interlocking peace
processes,” in which parallel peacemaking efforts take place among interlinked conflicts. This
article examines how progress in one peace process can influence an interlocking process, and
the conditions under which a breakthrough in one process can trigger progress in a parallel
process or undermine its advancement. It offers a theoretical framework for the analysis of
interlocking peace processes, outlining three main arguments, which rest on three influence
patterns: complementing peace processes, competing peace processes, and a paving-the-way
peace process. The discussion considers how the mechanisms of diffusion, identity formation,
and legitimization serve as dominant tools in these processes. The article uses the interlocking
peace processes in the Arab-Israeli conflict as a case study, examining the relationship between
four processes in the Middle East: the Israeli- Egyptian, Israeli-Palestinian, Israeli-Jordanian, and
Israeli-Syrian peace processes.
Keywords
Arab-Israeli conflict, diffusion, interlocking conflicts, peace process
Introduction
What is the dialectical influence between interlocking peace processes? The scholarship
in the field of conflict analysis has identified the occurrence of “interlocking conflicts”
(Kriesberg, 1980)—namely, linked conflicts that affect each other—as well as the “dif-
fusion” (Forsberg, 2014) and “spill over” (Carmignani and Kler, 2017) of conflicts and
Corresponding author:
Lior Lehrs, The Leonard Davis Institute for International Relations, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem,
Alfred Davis Building, Mount Scopus, Jerusalem 91905, Israel.
Email: lior.lehrs@mail.huji.ac.il
1145828CAC0010.1177/00108367221145828Cooperation and ConflictLehrs
research-article2022
Article
486 Cooperation and Conflict 58(4)
wars. Less attention has been drawn to the question of “interlocking peace processes,” in
which parallel peacemaking efforts take place among interlinked conflicts, or to the way
these processes influence and correspond with one another.
This article focuses on the phenomenon of peace processes in interlocking conflicts.
It examines how significant progress in one peacemaking process can influence an inter-
linked process, and the conditions under which a diplomatic breakthrough in one conflict
might trigger either progress or deterioration in an interrelated conflict. These processes
might take place in either internal or international conflicts.
In such situations, even though each conflict, and each separate peace process, has its
own pace and dynamic, their linkages, and the fact that they collectively belong to the
same “regional conflict complex” (Buzan and Wæver, 2003), result in mutual influence.
Therefore, substantial developments and changes in one process are expected to have a
direct impact on parallel efforts. This phenomenon and its implications require special
analysis and examination.
This article offers a theoretical framework for the analysis of interlocking peace pro-
cesses. It outlines three main arguments, which rest on three influence patterns: (1)
Complementing peace processes, between a process in a central conflict, which forms the
core of the regional conflict, and a process in a strongly linked and interrelated, secondary
conflict; (2) Competing peace processes, between parallel, separate, conflicts, where both
processes require painful concessions and high audience costs; (3) A paving-the-way
peace process, with a regional power, which offers a role model for other processes. The
study explores the theoretical logic and internal mechanisms of each pattern, drawing on
theoretical discussions on the role of social identity (Adler, 1998; McKeown et al., 2016),
domestic and regional legitimacy (Bar-Siman-Tov, 1994; Miller, 2000), and “diffusion”
(Böhmelt, 2016) in peace processes. It also contributes to the scholarship on “interlocking
conflicts” (Kriesberg, 1980), multiple, and parallel, channels in diplomacy and peacemak-
ing processes (Crocker et al., 1999), and regional peace and security (Tavares, 2008).
The article uses the interlocking peace processes in the Arab-Israeli conflict as a criti-
cal case study, and through the method of within-case analysis, examines the relationship
and the dialectical influence between four interlinked peacemaking processes in the
Middle East: the Israeli-Egyptian, Israeli-Palestinian, Israeli-Jordanian, and Israeli-
Syrian peace processes. This case offers a rich empirical field to examine the variations
among these peace processes, which differ in terms of such factors as the type of conflict,
linkages between the processes, and outcomes. The empirical research is based on his-
torical and academic studies and memoirs by former mediators and negotiators.
The article opens with a theoretical background, followed by a description of the
proposed analytical framework. Next, it offers an analysis of the case study, beginning
with a historical background, and then using the framework to examine and illustrate the
three main patterns of complementing, competing, and paving-the-way peace processes.
It closes with conclusions.
Theoretical background
“Interlocking conflicts,” also termed “multiple conflicts” (Maoz, 2000), are simultane-
ous interrelated conflicts that interact, each one influencing how the other develops.
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