Irregular Immigration, Labour Market and Enforcement at the US‐Mexico Border. Evidence from a Time‐Series Analysis (1963–2014)
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/imig.12243 |
| Author | Fabrizio Costantino |
| Date | 01 June 2016 |
| Published date | 01 June 2016 |
Irregular Immigration, Labour Market and
Enforcement at the US-Mexico Border.
Evidence from a Time-Series Analysis
(1963–2014)
Fabrizio Costantino*
ABSTRACT
This article provides evidence on irregular immigration to the US from Mexico in the years
1963–2014. It aims to answer to two questions. The first is: how much is irregular immigra-
tion responsive to changes in the US labour market? Compared with legal immigration, irregu-
lar immigration seems to be more sensitive to short-run economic cycles as it is not directly
regulated by the policies of the destination country. Second, what effect does border enforce-
ment have on irregular immigration? One of the proposals of the recent bill is the construction
of a double layer fence on the Southern border. We do not know, however, to what extent a
further increase in border security will prevent irregular immigration and at which economic
cost. The contribution of this article is dual: first, it provides empirical evidence on irregular
immigration to the US Second, it provides evidence about the effect of US border policies on
irregular immigration.
INTRODUCTION
Irregular immigration is again a priority on the US policy agenda as the Senate has approved a
new immigration reform (The Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modern-
ization Act of 2014). Meanwhile, the differential of wages between US and the Latin-American
countries persists, creating a pressure for regular and irregular migration to the US
This article analyses irregular immigration to the United States from Mexico. It aims to answer
two questions. The first is: how far is irregular immigration responsive to changes in the US labour
market? Compared with regular immigration, irregular immigration seems to be more sensitive to
short-run economic cycles, as it is not directly controlled by the policies of the destination country
(Bommes and Sciortino, 2011; Duvell, 2008; Hanson 2006, 1999). Second, what effect does border
enforcement have on irregular immigration? One of the proposals of the recent bill is the construc-
tion of a double layer fence on the Southern border. We do not know, however, to what extent a
further increase in border security will prevent irregular immigration and at which economic cost.
This article provides evidence about the effect undertaken by the US minimum wage and unem-
ployment rate, the level of enforcement and the number of regularizations on the flows of irregular
immigrants apprehended at the US Southwest Border
1
in the years 1963–2014. The main challenge
is however related to type of system used to measure irregular immigration, which is also the only
* University of Trento
doi: 10.1111/imig.12243
©2016 The Author
International Migration ©2016 IOM
International Migration Vol. 54 (3) 2016
ISSN 0020-7985Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
To continue reading
Request your trial