Is arrest for prohibited drug use a prelude to more serious offending?
| Author | Wai-Yin Wan,Don Weatherburn |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/26338076221105898 |
| Published date | 01 September 2022 |
| Date | 01 September 2022 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
Is arrest for prohibited drug
use a prelude to more serious
offending?
Wai-Yin Wan
NSW Department of Justice, NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and
Research, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Don Weatherburn
National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, University of New South
Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Abstract
Although they constitute a significant fraction of the workload of most courts, very little
research has been conducted on the criminal careers of those who commit minor offences.
Such research is important for both theoretical and practical reasons. It is of theoretical
importance because the criminal careers of those who commit minor offences may differ sig-
nificantly from those who commit serious offences. It is of practical importance because the
assumed rate of re-offending among minor offend ers has a bearing on both the sentence
imposed and the question of whether some offences should be decriminalised. Use or posses-
sion of a prohibited drug is a common minor offence –and one that many have argued should
be decriminalised. Little is known, however, about the criminal careers of those convicted of
this offence. We do not know what proportion are rearrested, what further offences (if any)
they commit, or what factors affect the rate of offending among those who do have further
contact with the criminal justice system. To answer these questions, we examined a cohort
of 13,953 people whose first proven offence was for the use or possession of a prohibited
drug and examined their criminal careers over an average period of 4.4 years (sd.=3.4
years, range =20.8 years). The majority (73%) had no further contact with the NSW criminal
justice system. The most common offence among those who did re-offend was another drug
possession offence. Significantly higher risks of re-offending were found among those living in
areas in the lowest quartile of disadvantage and among those found in possession of cannabis.
The implications of these findings are discussed.
Corresponding author:
Don Weatherburn, National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, University of New South Wales, UNSW Sydney,
NSW 2052, Australia.
Email: d.weatherburn@unsw.edu.au
Article
Journal of Criminology
2022, Vol. 55(3) 322–337
© The Author(s) 2022
Article reuse guidelines:
sagepub.com/journals-permissions
DOI: 10.1177/26338076221105898
journals.sagepub.com/home/anj
Keywords
Cure fraction model, drug possession, re-offending, drug type, socioeconomic status
Date received: 18 March 2022; accepted: 16 May 2022
Introduction
Criminological theorists often assume that criminal behaviour arises out of some adverse psy-
chological, social, or economic processes or conditions. This assumption may be valid for
serious offences such as theft, robbery or serious sexual or physical violence, but it is unlikely
to be true for all offences. An offender is simply a person who has breached the criminal law.
Some criminal laws enjoy near-universal public support (e.g. the prohibitions against murder,
robbery, theft, and sexual assault). Others are highly contested and/or breached by large seg-
ments of the general public. Possessing small amounts of cannabis is a criminal offence in
most Australian States and Territories; however, more than 4 in 10 Australians oppose this
law (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, 2020). Driving under the influence of
alcohol is a criminal offence, yet more than 50% of New South Wales (NSW) drivers report
having driven while under the influence of alcohol at some stage of their lifetime (Centre
for Road Safety, 2020). The patterns of offending and recidivism among those who commit
widely contested, very common and/or relatively minor offences (e.g. illicit drug use, trespas-
sing, offensive language) may be quite different from those who commit unusual or serious
offences.
The theoretical preoccupation with serious crime has led to a similar focus in criminal career
research. Since the publication of Criminal Careers and Career Criminals (Blumstein et al.,
1986) an enormous body of research has accumulated on the correlates and causes of
re-offending. Investigators have examined the correlates of re-offending for sex offenders,
violent offenders, offenders who are mentally disordered, offenders with ADHD, and arsonists,
to name a just few of the domainsoccupied by criminal career research. Researchers have endea-
voured to determine the age of onset of offending, the peak age of offending, the average dur-
ation of a criminal career, the frequency of offending and whether offences are generalists or
specialists. Nearly all of this research, however, has been focused on serious offences. Very
little has been conducted on the criminal careers of those who commit minor offences, though
they constitute a significant fraction of the workload of most courts. In Australia, for example,
traffic offences,public order offences and drug possessionoffences account for 47% of the work-
load of the magistrates’courts (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2022).
Research into the criminal careers of minor offenders is important for practical as well as
theoretical reasons. Courts making decisions on bail and sentence frequently have regard to
the likelihood of the defendant/offender committing further offences. At present, defence
counsel cannot call on any reliable statistical evidence bearing on the likelihood or seriousness
of reoffending among those convicted of minor offences. Policy makers also have a strong
interest in the criminal careers of those who commit minor offences. Criminal prosecution
has some very undesirable consequences. They include social stigmatization, restrictions on
travel overseas (Council of Europe, 2017) and damage to an individual’s future earnings and
employment prospects (Borland & Hunter, 2000; Graffam et al., 2004; Grogger, 1995;
Nagin & Waldfogel, 1995; Newton et al., 2018; Waldfogel, 1994). Criminal prosecution is
also expensive. The costs include the expenditure on policing, prosecution, sentencing and
Wan and Weatherburn 323
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