Large scale public projects—The personal connection
| Date | 01 January 1991 |
| Author | Baruch Mevorach,Tzvika Y. Goldenberg |
| Published date | 01 January 1991 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1002/pad.4230110108 |
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION AND DEVELOPMENT,
Vol.
1
I,
5765
(1991)
Large scale public projects-the personal connection
TZVIKA
Y.
GOLDENBERG
Universify
of
Minnesofa
and
BARUCH MEVORACH
Tel Aviv University
SUMMARY
The paper expands on an interesting phenomenon accompanying large-scale projects, namely,
the parallel inflation in costs and deflation
in
benefits from initiation to implementation and
final evaluation
or
elimination altogether. Historically, three explanations have been provided
for the above phenomenon: the deterministic effects
of
uncertainty; self-interest evaluators;
and the ‘vision’ factor. We claim that on face value one cannot accept as scientifically sound
evidence the above three explanations of the constant decline in actual benefits. The ‘accep-
tance-avoidance’ model which we bring to bear predicts a constant deterioration in actual
benefits as the project develops. This psychological factor results in the use of the three above-
mentioned explanations as a ‘cover-up’ for real underlying human doubts regarding the chances
of success of crucial decisions taken by individuals.
INTRODUCTION
The analyses of large scale public projects, both successes and failures, lead to the
conclusion that the following rule,
u
la
Parkinson
(1957),
Peter and Hull (1968),
etc., can be applied to their initiation, implementation, and final evaluation:
1.
Projected costs in the initiation stage, in constant terms, equal about half the
actual costs in the implementation and final evaluation stages.
2.
Projected benefits in the initiation stage, in constant terms, equal about twice
the actual benefits in the implementation and final evaluation stages.
3.
The ratio of projected costs to benefits is less than one in the initiation stage
(favouring the benefits’ side); the same ratio will later, during the implementation
and final evaluation stages, exceed one, rendering the actual costs a predomi-
nance over the actual benefits.
Most of the explanations provided to the above rule resort to arguments with
inherent negative connotations: initiators’ self-interests; negative impact of future
uncertainties
on
large scale projects; or political ideologies which ignore the true
Tzvika Y. Goldenberg, is
a
Research Associate
in
the Department
of
Educational Psychology, University
of
Minnesota,
178
Pillsbury Drive, Minneapolis, Minnesota
55455,
USA.
Baruch Mevorach is a lecturer
in
the
Political Science Department and
on
the masters’ programme
in
Public Policy at Tel
Aviv
University,
Ramat
Aviv,
69978, Israel.
0271-2075/91/0 1005749$05.00
0
1991 by John Wiley
&
Sons, Ltd.
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