Migration as an Adaptation Strategy for Atoll Island States
| Date | 01 April 2017 |
| Published date | 01 April 2017 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/imig.12318 |
| Author | Miguel Esteban,Lilian Yamamoto |
Migration as an Adaptation Strategy for Atoll
Island States
Lilian Yamamoto* and Miguel Esteban**
ABSTRACT
Adopting a policy of migration can be one possible adaptation strategy against climate change.
It has been forecasted that if the worst predictions regarding climate change and sea level rise
become reality atolls around the world could become submerged in the future. This would ren-
der them uninhabitable and could lead to questions about whether Atoll Island States could
still be considered as States. The international community has been avoiding any commitment
to create a convention that would protect people displaced by climate change. In order to solve
such potential problems, the authors will argue that a framework of bilateral agreements, initia-
tives, and national policies could constitute a viable solution for the various interested parties.
The article will discuss the characteristics of Atoll Island States, touching on possible solutions
for climate change displacement which have been discussed by the governments and civil soci-
ety of the affected States.
INTRODUCTION
If the worst coral mortality and sea level rise predictions become true many atolls around the world
could become submerged by the end of the twenty-first century or during the course of the twenty-
second century. If no significant adaptation measures are put in place it has been hypothesized that
this could lead to the disappearance of the entire territory of some Atoll Island States (such as Kiri-
bati, Tuvalu, Maldives and Marshall Islands), forcing their inhabitants to relocate to other countries.
It is worth emphasizing that it is doubtful that such worst case scenarios will actually materialize,
given the geomorphological resilience of the islands and the range of adaptation measures that are
possible (Webb and Kench, 2010; Yamamoto and Esteban, 2014; Jamero et al., 2016). Neverthe-
less, in the present research the authors would like to examine what would be the best way to pro-
tect the communities affected if Atoll Islands do indeed disappear. To do so, examples from a
number of other instances where communities have been affected will be described, including not
only Atoll Island States but other Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and archipelagos in
general.
The essence of climate change induced displacement makes the definition of the scope of protec-
tion for persons difficult, since there is no clear line which separates voluntary and forced displace-
ment in slow or sudden-onset displacements. Voluntary displacement is typically considered to take
place when there is a choice between diverse options, while forced displacement takes place when
various conditions such as a reduction in food and water availability, infrastructure loss, exposure
to ill-health, injury or even death force an individual to leave (Burson and Bedford, 2013).
* University of S~
ao Paulo
** University of Tokyo
doi: 10.1111/imig.12318
©2017 The Authors
International Migration ©2017 IOM
International Migration Vol. 55 (2) 2017
ISS N 00 20- 7985 Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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