Natural Disasters and Human Trafficking: Do Disasters Affect State Anti‐Trafficking Performance?
| Date | 01 February 2018 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/imig.12374 |
| Published date | 01 February 2018 |
| Author | Zack Bowersox |
Natural Disasters and Human Trafficking: Do
Disasters Affect State Anti-Trafficking
Performance?
Zack Bowersox*
ABSTRACT
Despite the oft noted negative connection between natural disasters and human trafficking, no
quantitative study has been performed. Natural disasters, like conflict, can destroy homes and
the economic security of individuals forcing them to migrate and making them targets for traf-
fickers. This article tests the link between a state’s ability to address trafficking and natural
disasters, testing the popular prediction that a state’s capabilities will be strained as increased
natural disasters occur thus producing a negative effect. The findings though demonstrate that
states are actually more likely to perform better in their efforts to confront trafficking. I argue
that this is because natural disasters actually strengthen and enhance the state, and particularly
its security institutions, in responding to these events. I place these findings in the context of
other recent quantitative studies of trafficking that have also produced contradictory results
when compared with the field’s qualitative studies.
INTRODUCTION
Human trafficking is a rapidly growing segment of international crime and thus of increasing
importance as a topic in the studies of human security scholars (Shelley, 2010; CullenDuPont,
2009). The quantitative study of this activity has been handicapped in large part due to a lack of
reliable data, yet there are some encouraging recent findings and efforts that have provided insights
into state factors associated with this crime (Cho, 2015; Cho, Dreher, and Neumayer, 2014; Frank,
2013). Theoretically, there are several variables that can make individuals or certain groups more
vulnerable to trafficking, but the gap between theory and empirical tests remains evident. This arti-
cle works towards closing this gap, quantitatively testing for a relationship between natural disasters
and a state’s ability to address human trafficking.
Trafficking is a threat to human security everywhere and is as much a reflection of a state’s
socio-political make-up as it is its martial capabilities. Whereas a state can either violate or preserve
its citizens’human rights by choosing to engage in or refrain from certain behaviours, factors of
human security are often defined by that which is indirectly in a state’s area of control (Jonsson,
2009a). For instance, a state can refrain from using excessive force on its citizens, thus preserving
a measure of their physical integrity rights. Alternately, if that state chooses not to prosecute
domestic violence, or does not fully enforce laws against it, the security of a segment of its society
is at threat.
*Emery University, Atlanta
doi: 10.1111/imig.12374
©2017 The Author
International Migration ©2017 IOM
International Migration Vol. 56 (1) 2018
ISS N 00 20- 7985 Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
In a similar fashion, natural disasters may place the security of a segment of a state’s society at
greater risk of suffering certain hazards by creating what has been referred to as protection gaps.
These gaps are the difference between what is needed and what is provided for the safety and secu-
rity of citizens (see Martin, Weersinghe, and Taylor’s 2014 edited volume). However well a state
provides for the rights of its citizens, their safety and security is likely to be negatively affected fol-
lowing a natural disaster and gaps between what is needed and provided will emerge. While some
states are better able to meet this challenge and can provide security for their citizens, others will
fall short, leaving citizens with certain needs unfulfilled. It is in this latter situation that individuals
are more at risk of trafficking, as desperation will drive them towards riskier forms of migration to
satisfy these needs elsewhere.
This article looks at the as yet untested connection between natural disasters and human traffick-
ing. Like conflict’s effect on trafficking (Akee, Basu, Chau, and Khamis, 2010) natural disasters
can destroy or threaten the homes and livelihoods of individuals, putting those affected in a posi-
tion where they may be more likely to attempt riskier methods of migration. Further, natural disas-
ters can affect the political stability of a state and exacerbate social inequalities (Drury and Olsen,
1998), also creating an at-risk population.
Testing whether or not the experience of natural disasters can affect the performance of states in
meeting their obligations in combating trafficking, this article finds that those states which experi-
ence an increase from one year to the next in the relative-average of natural disaster events, are
more likely to be better at meeting their obligations in confronting this crime. These findings stand
in stark contrast to the qualitative literature, but, I argue, are consistent with recent quantitative
findings; the sum of these works should encourage human security and human trafficking scholars
not just to seek vulnerabilities that can lead to trafficking, but also to address the variations in
opportunity.
Responses to natural disasters by the state are often highly centralized and utilize security institu-
tions like the armed forces because of their ability to mobilize and operate efficiently. Further, the
relief camps and disaster areas are often highly securitized to protect property and individuals;
movement tends to be restricted or otherwise managed. Any and all of these factors could act to
reduce the opportunities of those who would be made vulnerable to trafficking to have to move, or
to be moved from, these areas.
This article continues in four parts. After an introduction to the relevant literature and the devel-
opment of the article’s theory, the methodology employed is introduced. This is followed by an
analysis of the findings, and the article concludes with some comments about, and suggestions for,
future work.
THEORETICAL DEVELOPMENT
The United Nations (2000) set forth its definition of human trafficking in the Protocol to Prevent,
Suppress and Punish Trafficking in Persons, Especially Women and Children, or, as it is often
referred to, the Palermo Protocol. According to this document, trafficking in persons includes “the
recruitment, transportation, transfer, harbouring or receipt of persons, by means of the threat of use
of force or other forms of coercion, of abduction, of fraud, of deception, of the abuse of power or
of a position of vulnerability or of the giving of receiving of payments or benefits to achieve the
consent of a person having control over another person, for the purpose of exploitation”(Article 3,
paragraph a).
The aspect of exploitation is an important determinant of what activities constitute trafficking as
opposed to human smuggling or other forms of migration. Exploitation here refers to both sexual
exploitation and labour exploitation, and it is common across these types for a trafficking victim to
Natural Disasters and Human Trafficking 197
©2017 The Author. International Migration ©2017 IOM
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