Neither Tension nor Détente: East-West Relations in Europe, 1971-1975
| Author | Johan Lagerkranz,Kjell Goldmann |
| Published date | 01 November 1977 |
| DOI | 10.1177/001083677701200403 |
| Date | 01 November 1977 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
Research
Note
Neither
Tension
nor
Détente:
East-West
Relations
in
Europe,
1971-1975
KJELL
GOLDMANN
and
JOHAN
LAGERKRANZ
Department
of
Political
Science,
University
of
Stockholm,
and
The
Swedish
Institute
of
International
Affairs,
Stockholm
Goldmann,
K.
&
Lagerkranz,
J.
Neither
Tension
nor
Détente:
East-West
Relations
in
Europe,
1971-1975.
Cooperation
and
Conflict,
XII
,
1977,
251-264.
This
research
note
reports
on
an
attempt
to
update
a
previous
study
about
East-
West
tension
in
Europe
during
the
post-1945
period.
In
the
original
study
tension
was
measured
by
means
of
a
content
analysis
of
governmental
statements,
and
data
on
fluctuations
in
tension
were
presented
for
the
period
1946-1970;
the
same
technique
has
been
applied
to
the
period
1971-1975,
and
data
for
the
whole
of
the
period
1946-
1975
can
now
be
reported.
In
the
original
study
an
attempt
was
also
made
to
explain
fluctuations
in
tension
primarily
in
terms
of
changes
in
the
degree
of
bipolarization
in
Europe,
and
by
reference
to
changes
in
the
strategic
balance
between
the
US
and
the
USSR;
in
this
follow-up
study
the
main
conclusions
are
reconsidered
in
the
light
of
the
additional
empirical
evidence
now
available.
Kjell
Goldmann
and
Johan
Lagerkranz,
Department
of
Political
Science,
University
of
Stockholm
and
the
Swedish
Institute
of
International
Affairs,
Stockholm.
1.
INTRODUCTION1
1
This
research
note
reports
on
an
attempt
to
update
a
quantitative
study
of
East-
West
tension
in
Europe,
concluded
in
1974
at
the
Swedish
Institute
of
Interna-
tional
Affairs.
In
that
study
a
content
analysis
of
governmental
statements
was
carried
out
in
order
to
measure
fluctua-
tions
in
European
tension.
Data
were
produced
for
the
period
1946-1970.
An
attempt
was
then
made
to
explain
the
variations,
primarily
by
reference
to
changes
in
the
nature
of
the
blocs
sur-
rounding
the
superpowers
and
in
the
nuclear
balance
between
them.
We
can
report
here
supplementary
data
about
European
tension
for
the
period
1971-
1975
as
well
as
a
reconsideration
of
the
key
conclusions
of
the
original
study
in
the
light
of
the
additional
data
now
available.
Our
theoretical
concept
of
international
tension
is
extensively
presented
and
dis-
cussed
in
the
original
project
publica-
tions.2
Only
a
few
introductory
words
must
be
said
here.
We
regard
tension
as
essentially
synonymous
with
mutual
threat
perceptions.
Our
basic
definition
is
as
follows:
tension
exists
between
two
actors,
or
coalitions
of
actors,
to
the
extent
that
they
expect
conflict
behaviour
to
occur
between
themselves.
The
idea
of
operationalizing
this
concept
in
terms
of
a
content
analysis
of
governmental
statements
is
not
self-evident.
It
has
on
the
contrary
become
common
to
main-
tain
that the
current
detente
between
East
and
West
is
superficial
precisely
in
the
sense
of
being
merely
verbal.
All
that
has
happened
in
East-West
relations,
according
to
some
detente
sceptics,
is
that
the
parties
express
themselves
in
a
more
polite
manner
than
they
used
to;
the
change
in
verbal
behaviour,
although
a
step
forward,
has
little
to
do
with
more
fundamental
matters.
This
view
implies
criticism
of
the
idea
of
measuring
tension
by
content
analysis.
We
suggest
that
such
criticism
of
our
operationalization
may
be
based
on
a
simplistic
theory
about
governmental
statements
and
their
effects.
The
issue
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