Net Migration as a Target for Migration Policies: A Review and Appraisal of the UK Experience
| Author | Alessio Cangiano |
| Published date | 01 April 2016 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/imig.12223 |
| Date | 01 April 2016 |
Net Migration as a Target for Migration
Policies: A Review and Appraisal of the UK
Experience
Alessio Cangiano*
ABSTRACT
The impact of migration on population growth has become a ubiquitous argument in UK
immigration debates, leading to the introduction of immigration restrictions to reduce net
migration and prevent the UK population from reaching 70 million. Taking the UK as a case
study, this article assesses the rationale for setting a national net migration target as a pivotal
point for migration policies and the feasibility of limiting net migration using immigration con-
trols. A framework for analysing the effects of migration policies on net migration is proposed
and applied to UK official migration data. The results show that, due to various policy con-
straints, competing objectives and unintended feedbacks, it is neither optimal nor entirely feasi-
ble to prioritize a reduction of net migration as a target for migration policies. Nevertheless,
factoring net migration into the migration policy debate provides useful insights on the long-
term implications of migration policies in the context of broader demographic changes.
INTRODUCTION
Long-term policy objectives typically do not feature amongst the major concerns of migration poli-
cies and debates. In contrast, there has long been a generalized lack of farsightedness in migration
policies, which are mostly driven by short-term labour market objectives, e.g. annual reviews of
labour migrant entry systems (MAC, 2008), highly compartmentalized (i.e. consisting of distinct
and uncoordinated policy strands for the management of different admission channels), and often
influenced by political agendas not exceeding the duration of one parliamentary mandate. Despite
the prevalence of this “short-termism”, demographic arguments have been gaining ground in migra-
tion debates in some national and international fora. The notion that Europe will need large immi-
gration flows to make up for a demographic gap associated with population ageing and decline has
been popular in EU and international policy circles (e.g. CEC, 2005). In the UK, the demographic
argument has been played out in the opposite way with the establishment of a net migration upper
limit as a pivotal point of UK migration policy. Fuelled by debates emphasizing the negative exter-
nalities of immigration-driven population growth, the conservative-led Government coalition elected
in 2010 (Conservative Government since May 2015) has taken action to reduce net migration (i.e.
the balance between in- and out-migration flows) “from hundreds of thousands to tens of thou-
sands”(Conservative Party, 2010: 21; 2015: 29). Plans to cut net migration have been presented as
a tool for preventing the UK population from reaching 70 million within the next two decades
(Cameron, 2007).
* The University of the South Pacific, Suva, Fiji Islands
doi: 10.1111/imig.12223
©2016 The Author
International Migration ©2016 IOM
International Migration Vol. 54 (2) 2016
ISS N 00 20- 7985 Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
This article speaks to, and tries to bridge some of the gap between, two rather separate strands of
literature: the rapidly expanding body of academic research on migration policies, and the long-
established demographic literature on the impact of migration on population dynamics. The migra-
tion policy literature often raised doubts about the effectiveness of policies in steering migration
flows (e.g. Castles and Miller, 2009). The ostensible contradiction between the strong public pres-
sures for immigration restrictions and the relatively large number of migrants admitted by many lib-
eral democratic states (Boswell, 2007) has been explained in terms of discrepancies between
migration discourses and rhetoric (e.g. broadly stated goals such as curbing immigration), con-
cretely formulated migration policy objectives, and the actual implementation of immigration laws
(Czaika and De Haas, 2013). This strand of literature has also pointed out the “significance of
migration to competing policy objectives”(e.g. economic competitiveness, the protection of human
and welfare rights, and the capacity to provide public services), as well as the lack of “consensus
on the weight that should be placed on those priorities”(Spencer, 2011: 2). A neglected question
in the migration policy literature is what role, if any, demographic objectives should play in migra-
tion policies. In turn, this question has been widely discussed in the demographic literature looking
at the long-term impact of migration on population dynamics and structure (e.g. Coleman, 1992;
Bijak, 2007). However this latter body of research hardly considers the demographic impact of dif-
ferent flows making up the immigration and emigration aggregates (e.g. labour, family and asylum
migration) and states’ability to manage these flows to achieve immigration (or net-migration) tar-
gets that may be seen as desirable over a prolonged period of time.
In general terms, a policy that sets as a goal the reduction of population growth and relies on the
limitation of net migration as an instrument to achieve this goal rests essentially on three proposi-
tions: i) reducing population growth is beneficial, i.e. it will improve general well-being; ii) it is
desirable to prioritize the limitation of net migration as an objective for migration policies; and iii)
states are able to limit net migration by controlling the different flows of people moving in and out
of the country that make up this aggregate. The first proposition raises broad questions about the
costs and benefits of population growth and immigration that are beyond the scope of this study.
Rather, this article focuses on propositions ii) and iii) by addressing two main research questions:
is it useful and desirable to prioritise demographic objectives –with particular reference to manag-
ing the size of the population –in migration policies? And, if so, is it feasible to use migration
policies to achieve pre-determined levels of net migration over the long term? Taking the UK as a
case study, and trying to refrain from grand generalizations, I attempt to draw some lessons that
help answer these questions based on an analytical framework that links the establishment of a net
migration target to the distinct compartments of migration policy used for the management of dif-
ferent in- and out-flows. The main argument of this article is that, due to the significance of net
migration to competing policy objectives and to numerous constraints and unintended feedbacks
that limit governments’ability to control flows that make up the net migration aggregate, it is nei-
ther optimal nor feasible to set a net migration target as a pivotal point for migration policies. Nev-
ertheless, factoring net migration in the migration policy debate provides the opportunity for a
useful reflection on the long-term implications of migration policies in the context of broader
demographic changes.
THE RISE OF THE NET MIGRATION TARGET IN UK MIGRATION POLICY
The stance of the UK Government on population policies was long characterized by a non-inter-
ventionist approach. This is well-illustrated by the statement that was presented at the UN Confer-
ence on Population in Mexico in 1984 and restated ten years later at the International Conference
on Population and Development in Cairo (ONS, 1993: 1–2):
Net Migration as a Target for Migration Policies 19
©2016 The Author. International Migration ©2016 IOM
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