Pathways to water conflict during drought in the MENA region
| Author | Christiane Fröhlich,Miguel Rodriguez Lopez,Tobias Ide,Jürgen Scheffran |
| Published date | 01 May 2021 |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022343320910777 |
| Date | 01 May 2021 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
Pathways to water conflict during drought
in the MENA region
Tobias Ide
University of Melbourne & and Murdoch University
Miguel Rodriguez Lopez
University of Hamburg
Christiane Fro
¨hlich
German Institute of Global and Area Studies (GIGA)
Ju
¨rgen Scheffran
University of Hamburg
Abstract
As hydro-meteorological hazards are predicted to become more frequent and intense in the future, scholars and
policymakers are increasingly concerned about their security implications, especially in the context of ongoing
climate change. Our study contributes to this debate by analysing the pathways to water-related conflict onset under
drought conditions in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region between 1996 and 2009. It is also the first
such analysis that focuses on small-scale conflicts involving little or no physical violence, such as protests or
demonstrations. These nonviolent conflicts are politically relevant, yet understudied in the literature on climate
change and conflict, environmental security, and political instability. We employ the method of qualitative com-
parative analysis (QCA) to integrate quantitative and qualitative data at various scales (national, regional, local) for a
sample of 34 cases (17 of which experienced conflict onset). Our findings show that pre-existing cleavages and either
autocratic political systems or cuts of the public water supply are relevant predictors of nonviolent, water-related
conflict onset during droughts. Grievances deeply embedded into socio-economic structures in combination with a
triggering event like a drought or water cuts are hence driving such water-related conflicts, especially in the absence of
proper political institutions. We thus argue that drought–conflict links are highly context-dependent even for
nonviolent, local conflicts, hence challenging determinist narratives that claim direct interlinkages between climate
change, hydro-meteorological disasters and conflict.
Keywords
climate change, Middle East, North Africa, protest, rainfall, security
Introduction
Over the coming decades, ongoing climate change is
likely to increase the frequency and intensity of hydro-
meteorological events like droughts and floods even
under moderate greenhouse gas emission scenarios. At
the same time, both the number of people living in areas
vulnerable to such events and the value of assets located
there is increasing (IPCC, 2018). A case in point is the
2006–09 drought in north-eastern Syria, which had
devastating impacts on local livelihoods due to a combi-
nation of rainfall scarcity, a history of state-driven
Corresponding authors:
christiane.froehlich@giga-hamburg.de, tobias.ide@unimelb.edu.au
Journal of Peace Research
2021, Vol. 58(3) 568–582
ªThe Author(s) 2020
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DOI: 10.1177/0022343320910777
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