A Policy Delphi study in the socialist Middle East
| Date | 01 October 1990 |
| Published date | 01 October 1990 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1002/pad.4230100408 |
| Author | Jac Smit,Antony Mason |
PUBLIC
ADMINISTRATION AND DEVELOPMENT,
Vol.
10,453465 (1990)
A
Policy Delphi
study
in
the socialist Middle East
JAC SMIT and ANTONY MASON
RCD
Consultants, Inc./Triad Environmental Associates.
Inc.
SUMMARY
The Delphi Method has been applied to a wide variety of predictive and consensus building
problems in the West. It has achieved mixed success in its ‘native’ environment. This paper
reports on the successful use of the Delphi by an interdisciplinary, international team
of
English-speaking consultants in an Arabic-speaking country, politically dominated by a
centralist regime. In the sixth year of the Iran-Iraq war, a group of international consultants
proceeded with the development of a master plan for the development of the City of Baghdad,
the Greater Baghdad Area and Central Iraq. Work on the plan had begun in
1982
but had
been slowed by the war and its effect on the Iraqi economy, a lack
of
consensus on the
part
of
the Iraqi government and a substantial degree of uncertainty in the government’s
confidence in the consulting team’s perceptions. An accelerated form of the Delphi was struc-
tured and applied over a period of three weeks, employing high ranking members of the
Iraqi technocracy. The results indicated a good degree of consensus on a number of material
issues. The consultants obtained a clearer picture of the client’s desires, and the client was
left with greater confidence in the consultant’s perceptions of the planning problems and
solutions. There was a notable reduction in the level of uncertainty and disagreement among
both Iraqi and expatriate members of the planning team. Finally, there was an increased
acceptance of the resulting master plan due to the demonstrable participation
of
senior govern-
ment officials in its formulation and the credibility they attached to the process of the Delphi.
At the time of writing, the plan has been accepted by the government of Iraq.
INTRODUCTION
In the Spring of
1986,
at the request
of
the Iraqi government, a Delphi inquiry
was conducted by a group
of
Japanese, European and American planning consultants.
The Delphi marked the end of one stage in the development of a master plan for
the city of Baghdad, a ‘structure plan’ for metropolitan Baghdad and an economic
development plan for the region of central Iraq:
The Integrated Capital Development
Plan
(ICDP). The application was unusual for a variety of reasons relating to: its
scope; problems of language, culture and politics; and the need to interpret the
results on two levels.
The ICDP Delphi was applied under circumstances that differed
in
some respects
from conditions that are the customary environment for
its
use in western countries:
(i) The Delphi was applied in English with a group whose first language was Arabic;
(ii) The government of Iraq is a strongly centralist one in which there is some
reticence about speaking one’s mind in the presence
of
superiors;
The authors are principals in
RCD
Consultants, Inc.,
171
1
Lamont Street
NW,
Washington, D.C.
20010,
U.S.A.,
and Triad Environmental Associates, Inc.,
P.O.
Box
122,
Emerson
N.J.
07630,
U.S.A.,
respectively.
027
1-2075/90/040453-13$06.50
0
1990
by John Wiley
&
Sons, Ltd.
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