Replacement Migration: the wave of the future?
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2435.00181 |
| Author | Charles Keely |
| Date | 01 February 2001 |
| Published date | 01 February 2001 |
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© 2001 IOM
International Migration Vol. 39 (6) SI 2/2001
ISSN 0020-7985
Replacement Migration:
The Wave of the Future?
Charles B. Keely*
ABSTRACT
The Population Division of the United Nations issued a report in 1999 on
using migration to counteract the effects of low fertility on population size
and ageing. The report looked at eight industrial countries and two regions,
Europe and the European Union. Using population projections, the analysts
estimated the amount of migration necessary to maintain both labour forces
and the ratios of workers to retirees at a constant level.
This article agrees with the report that substituting migration for low fertility
requires politically insupportable levels of migration. The article also con-
cludes that the labour force and retirement financing outlook is not as dire
as the UN report insinuates.
INTRODUCTION
In response to journalists’ requests for data on the possible role of migration as
a means to counteract ageing of the population in industrial countries, the United
Nations Population Division prepared and issued a report in March 2000 titled,
Replacement Migration: Is It a Solution to Declining and Ageing
Populations? (UN Population Division, 2000). The report focused on the fact
that a number of developed countries have had very low and even below
replacement level fertility for many years following the post-World War II baby
boom. In addition, people are living longer than in the past. As a result, population
projections for many industrial countries sketch a picture of current populations
becoming continuously older than the global average. Higher proportions of the
population are projected to be in the age groups 65 years and older. In many
countries the fastest growing age group is “the oldest old”, that is, persons over
* The Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University, Washington, DC.
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