Risk on the Road: The Reason Casualty Rates Do Not Fall?
| Author | A.H. Reinhardt-Rutland |
| Published date | 01 October 1991 |
| Date | 01 October 1991 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/0032258X9106400410 |
| Subject Matter | Article |
A.H.
REINHARDT-RUTLAND,
BSc, MSc, DPhil,AFBPsS,
CPs
University
of
Ulster at Jordanstown
RISK ON THE ROAD:
THE REASON CASUALTY
RATES DO NOT FALL?
Summary: Road casualties remain obstinately high, no matter
what initiatives are undertaken. This may be because the driver
has a "target" level of risk: any measure to reduce casualties is
counteracted by the driver maintaining this level of risk by, for
example, driving faster. Some of the most impressive drops in
casualtyrates have occurred when risky behaviour has been less
likely because other factors seem more salient - as in the oil
crises of the 1970s.
Introduction
Road casualties in Great Britain remain obstinately high -they were about
300,000+ per annum during the 1980s (Department of Transport, 1990).
Is enough being done to improve matters? Those answering "no" might
point to the gross overcrowding on British roads. Build more and better
roads, they might suggest, and casualties will drop.
In fact, this is an unlikely proposition. Within the United Kingdom,
separate statistics are maintained for Northern Ireland. The province is
noted for its lavish provision of roads, which originates in its early switch
from rail, from the 1930s onwards (Doyle &Hirsch, 1983). In general,
exceptperhaps at peak rush hour times in the few urban areas, they never
sufferthe kind
of
overcrowding endemic in the Home Counties. Northern
Ireland'sroad casualties were 10,789 in 1988(Royal UlsterConstabulary,
1989). Since the population in the province is only about 2.6 per cent in
Britain, this indicates that ahigher proportion
of
the province'spopulation
(about 1 in 150) became casualties than in Britain (about 1 in 190). The
figures are also worse regarding fatalities: Britain's road deaths in 1988
were 5,052 (1 in 11,000), while Northern Ireland's were 178 (1 in 8,400).
In case Northern Ireland be regarded as exceptional, North America is
similarly characterized by good provision of roads in relation to the
population, yet the average North American is about twice as likely to die
on the road as the average Briton (Adams, 1988).
Anotherexample showing apparently anomalouseffectsof measures
that would be expected to reduce casualties lies in the introduction of
compulsory use of front seat belts in the United Kingdom during the
1980s: examinationof car-driver deaths in Britain reveals a dip from 1,472
(1982)to 1,198 (1983), which climbed back to 1,498 in 1989 - the highest
level
of
the decade. To an extent, this might be explained by the increase
342 October 1991
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