Statistics for, Death and Injury on the Roads: What Do They Tell Us about Risk and Safety Engineering?
| Published date | 01 November 2002 |
| Author | A. H. Reinhardt-Rutland |
| DOI | 10.1177/0032258X0207500304 |
| Date | 01 November 2002 |
| Subject Matter | Article |
A. H. REINHARDT-RUTLAND, DPHIL, AFBPSS
Reader in Psychology, University
of
Ulster; Newtownabbey,
Northern Ireland
STATISTICS FOR DEATH AND
INJURY ON THE ROADS: WHAT
DO THEY TELL US ABOUT RISK
AND SAFETY ENGINEERING?
A reasonable strategy for reducing road casualties should
reside in safety engineering: seat-belts; airbags; ABS brakes;
water-repellent road-surfaces; and the like. Yet, for some time
there have been rumblings about whether engineering ini-
tiatives are ever effective over the long term. One crucial issue
that has emerged concerns the interpretation of trends in
casualty rates; the present article is directed primarily to this
issue and, specifically, to what appears to be a paradox in the
relationship between death and injury statistics.
Engineering Initatives: The Argument for Failure
Critics of safety engineering argue that it has the unfortunate
effect of increasing speeding, close-following, overtaking and
other dangerous behaviours. This is made most explicit in Gerald
Wilde's (1994) theory of risk-homeostasis. The theory states that
drivers habitually behave with some desired level of risk; when
this level is disturbed, the driver responds by bringing risk back
to this desired level. A controlled study regarding ABS brakes
provides support: in matched groups of drivers operating either
ABS-fitted or conventionally braked taxis, collisions over three
years were not statistically different between the two groups
(Aschenbrenner &Biehl, 1994). However, controlled studies are
often difficult to undertake, if only because of legal issues. For
example, many jurisdictions now have legislation enforcing seat-
belt use. Nonetheless, evidence suggests that seat-belt use has
engendered speed increase (Janssen, 1994; Reinhardt-Rutland,
2(01). British mortality rates concerning compulsory belt use
tell a complementary story, although it should be borne in mind
that drink-driving legislation was introduced at the same time as
compulsory belt use at the beginning of 1983. The rates for
drivers and passengers were 2,443 in 1982, 2,019 in 1983, 2,179
in 1984 and, some years later, 2,426 in 1989 (Transport
Statistics, 1990).
The Police Journal, Volume 75 (2002) 223
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