Structured Hypothesis Development in Criminal Investigation: A method aimed at providing a broad and objective starting point for a criminal investigation
| Author | Nina Sunde |
| DOI | 10.1177/0032258X20982328 |
| Published date | 01 June 2022 |
| Date | 01 June 2022 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
2022, Vol. 95(2) 276 –295
Article
Structured Hypothesis
Development in Criminal
Investigation: A method
aimed at providing a broad
and objective starting point
for a criminal investigation
Nina Sunde
The Norwegian Police University College, University of Oslo, Oslo,
Norway
Abstract
The Structured Hypothesis Development in Criminal Investigation (SHDCI) method
aims to assist detectives in developing an adequate set of hypotheses, which prepares
the ground for a broad and objective investigation. The method aims to protect the
innocent, while also enabling the detectives to discover the full scope of the incident
under investigation. SHDCI builds on theor y and principles from cognitive psychology,
scientific methodology, logical reasoning, law and criminal investigation best practice.
The method is developed in a Norwegian context, but builds on universally accepted
legal principles, and SHDCI may therefore be relevant for implementation in other
jurisdictions.
Keywords
Hypothesis development, criminal investigation, objectivity, bias mitigation, presumption
of innocence
Introduction
When a serious incident has occurred, the manager of the investigation is often inter-
viewed about the progress of the investigation.
1
Statements like ‘we investigate widely’
Corresponding author:
Nina Sunde, The Norwegian Police University College, Postboks 2109 Vika, 0125 Oslo, Norway.
Email: nina.sunde@phs.no
The Police Journal:
Theory, Practice and Principles
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Sunde 277
or ‘no stone should be left unturned’ are frequently used and are metaphors of both the
challenge of criminal investigation and the methodology in use to solve the case. The
main task for the police is to uncover what has actually happened. A good methodology
is a prerequisite for achieving that, in compliance with the requirements for quality and
efficiency in a criminal investigation. The initial phase of an investigation is a challen-
ging phase in many ways. A plan is developed to ensure that the investigative team
searches for and secures relevant, accurate and reliable evidence that can shed light on
the incident (Fahsing, 2016). In the Norwegian context, a method focused on hypothesis
2
testing is implemented as the best current practice (Bjerknes and Fahsing, 2018; The
Norwegian General Attorney, 2018; The Norwegian Police Directorate, 2017).
A prerequisite for success with a hypothesis-testing method is the capability to develop
a qualitatively good set of hypotheses. Novalis’ well-known quote serves as a good
summary of why this is important: ‘Hypotheses are nets: only he who casts will catch’.
This section presents the SHDCI method, which is designed to enable those respon-
sible for the investigation to create sets of reasonable and relevant hypotheses, aimed at
forming the basis for a broad and objective investigation of criminal incidents that have
occurred. SHDCI builds on theory and principles from cognitive psychology, scientific
methodology, criminal investigation best practice, and law. A fictitious criminal case is
used to illustrate the practical use of the method. SHDCI can be divided into two phases:
In the brainstorming phase, the hypotheses are developed. This is followed by the
articulation phase, where the hypotheses are articulated and written down in an inves-
tigation plan. This article focuses mainly on the brainstorming phase, and provides an
example of what the hypotheses might look like in an investigation plan. Formulation of
the hypotheses is carried out in compliance with the principles presented by Kolflaath
(2019), which are briefly outlined in the section concerning the articulation phase and
linking to law.
Regulation, law and quality
Investigation is a law-regulated activity, and the universal principle of rule of law
protects citizens from illegal use of force or coercive means. To be charged, the terms
of the law must be fulfilled, and no one can be punished without judgement in the Court
of Law. The International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) UN General
Assembly (1966), the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR) UN General
Assembly (1948), the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) Council of
Europe (1950), as well as national regulations, provide procedural rules for how the
police should conduct criminal investigations. The presumption of innocence is a fun-
damental principle in any investigation and entails that everyone should be considered
innocent until proven guilty. This principle is particularly important when someone is
suspected of having committed a crime but should also be taken into account at the stage
at which the investigation has not appointed a suspect. This is justified by the fact that the
information that can prove the suspect is innocent may no longer exist when the inves-
tigation moves from the general case level to the person-focused level, and the investi-
gation must therefore be planned in a way that ensures a broad and objective
investigation, even before a suspect is appointed.
2The Police Journal: Theory, Practice and Principles XX(X)
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