The Impact of Long–term Visitor Migration on Projections of Australia’s Population
| Author | Rebecca Kippen,Peter McDonald |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2435.00208 |
| Date | 01 September 2002 |
| Published date | 01 September 2002 |
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© 2002 IOM
International Migration Vol. 40 (4) 2002
ISSN 0020-7985
* Australian Centre for Population Research, The Australian National University, Canberra.
The Impact of Long-term
Visitor Migration on Projections
of Australia’s Population
Peter McDonald and Rebecca Kippen*
ABSTRACT
In 1999 and 2000, net long-term visitor migration to Australia exceeded net
permanent migration for the first time. A shift in Australia’s migration entry
from permanent settlers to long-term visitors has many implications. This
paper focuses on the longer-term demographic impacts of this change.
In conventional projections of Australia’s population, particular levels of
annual net overseas migration are assumed and there is an implicit
assumption that these levels represent permanent migration. The question
addressed in this paper is: if permanent residents and temporary residents of
Australia are treated as two separate populations, does this change the
outcomes of population projections?
The paper uses a new projection model that divides the Australian population
into these two components. Each population is projected separately with
provision for movement from the visitor population to the permanent
population. Visitors who do not convert to permanent residence are “tagged”
with their expected year of departure and are taken out of the population in
that year. They are also assumed to have a zero birth rate (because any births
they have will leave with them).
A conventional population projection based on 1999 levels of annual net
overseas migration (88,000) results in an Australian population of around 25
million in 2050. In contrast, a “standard” projection, which is also based on
1999 migration levels, but considers permanent movements (50,000 net
annually) and long-term visitor movements (125,000 annual arrivals)
separately results in a population of 23 million by 2050.
126 McDonald and Kippen
Other projections are carried out in which specified net migration targets are
met through varying either the level of net permanent-resident migration, the
level of long-term visitor arrivals, or the rate of conversion of long-term
visitors to permanent residence.
The central conclusion of the study is that dividing the Australian population
into two parts, permanent residents and long-term visitors, and projecting
them separately into the future makes a considerable difference to the results
of population projections.
THE DEFINITION OF THE AUSTRALIAN POPULATION
Prior to 1983, the definition of the Australian population was the count of people
in the country at any point in time irrespective of their residential status.1 This
meant that people who were visitors to Australia for very short periods were
counted in the Australian population while present in the country. Thus, a tourist
from the United States spending a week on the Great Barrier Reef was counted
as a member of the Australian population during the visit. Likewise, Australians
who went for a short holiday to New Zealand were excluded from the Australian
population during their absence. The net addition to the Australian population
from overseas movements of people was calculated as arrivals from overseas
minus departures for overseas. No account was taken of the duration of the stay
in Australia or of the absence from Australia. When short-term international
movements into and out of Australia were small, this approach to measuring the
Australian population presented little problem. However, as these movements
increased, the continued use of this approach became untenable especially when
it was considered that population totals were used in matters so significant as the
distribution of Commonwealth revenue to the States and Territories and the
definition of electoral boundaries. Today, there are about 8 million short-term
moves both out of and into Australia each year.
As a solution to this situation, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)
determined that short-term movements into and out of Australia should be
excluded from estimates of net overseas migration for the purpose of estimating
the Australian population (ABS, 1982). Short-term movements were defined as
a period of less than 12 months. Thus, persons resident in an overseas country
staying in Australia for less than 12 months are not included in the estimate of
the Australian population and residents of Australia who are absent overseas for
a period of less than 12 months continue to be counted as members of the
Australian population. This new definition of the population is termed the
estimated resident population.
The use of a 12-month criterion creates a problem because it is based upon
people’s stated intentions recorded as they enter or leave the country. Many
people subsequently change their intentions and stay for longer or shorter
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