The impact of the Canterbury Earthquakes on the temporal and spatial patterning of crime in Christchurch, New Zealand
| Author | Inger Fabris-Rotelli,Gregory D Breetzke,Marcus King |
| Published date | 01 March 2018 |
| Date | 01 March 2018 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/0004865816679687 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
Australian & New Zealand
Journal of Criminology
2018, Vol. 51(1) 135–156
!The Author(s) 2016
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DOI: 10.1177/0004865816679687
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Article
The impact of the Canterbury
Earthquakes on the temporal
and spatial patterning of crime
in Christchurch, New Zealand
Gregory D Breetzke
Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology,
University of Pretoria, South Africa
Marcus King
Department of Geography, University of Canterbury, New Zealand
Inger Fabris-Rotelli
Department of Statistics, University of Pretoria, South Africa
Abstract
The Canterbury Earthquakes struck the Canterbury region of the South Island of
New Zealand between September 2010 and February 2011. The Earthquakes resulted in
widespread structural damage to Christchurch, the main city of the region, and greatly
impacted other aspects of society including crime. In this study, we adopt an exploratory
approach to investigate the impact that these earthquakes have had on the temporal and
spatial patterning of four types of crime in Christchurch: assault, domestic violence, burglary
and arson. Overall crime has decreased in post-quake Christchurch with the notable excep-
tion of domestic violence. We found remarkably similar temporal signatures of crime for all
crime types occurring across both the pre- and post-earthquake periods. Spatially, crime has
increased in the majority of neighbourhoods in Christchurch post-quake despite overall crime
levels being down. Explanations for this paradoxical and other finding are outlined in the
context of a rebuilding and recovering city.
Keywords
Crime pattern, disaster, earthquake, environmental criminology, New Zealand
Date received: 4 May 2016; accepted: 24 October 2016
Corresponding author:
Gregory Dennis Breetzke, Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria,
Pretoria 0002, South Africa.
Email: greg.breetzke@up.ac.za
Introduction
A large and growing number of studies have investigated the relationship between the
occurrence of natural disasters and crime. The results across this broad swathe of lit-
erature covering numerous disasters are mixed with some studies finding an increase in
crime post-disaster (see Gray & Wilson, 1984; LeBeau, 2002; Leitner & Helbich, 2011;
Siman, 1977; Walker, Sim, & Keys-Mathews, 2014; Zhou, 1997), whilst others indicate
an associated decrease (see Barsky, Trainor, & Torres, 2006; Cromwell, Dunham, Akers,
& Lanza-Kaduce, 1995; Leitner, Barnett, Kent, & Barnett, 2011; Watanabe & Tamura,
1995; Zahran, Shelley, Peek, & Brody, 2009). In terms of property crime, Zhou (1997)
found the annual property crime rate in Tangshan, China to increase in the year fol-
lowing the Tangshan Earthquake of 1976. In Charlotte, North Carolina, LeBeau (2002)
noted an increase in the number of police callouts relating to suspected burglaries after
Hurricane Hugo in 1989 whilst flooding in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, resulting from
Hurricane Agnes in 1972 was also found to be associated with a rise in reported property
crime (see Gray & Wilson, 1984; Siman, 1977). Other studies, incorporating a spatial
component, have also found increases in property crime post-disaster. For example,
Leitner and Helbich (2011) noted a tripling of burglary offences in Houston, Texas
following the week of Hurricane Rita’s landfall as well as an increase in hotspots of
burglary. These hotspots were also found to be in locations away from their ‘usual’
locations. An increase in clusters of property crime in non-typical locations were also
found following Hurricane Wilma, in Miami (for burglary and larceny-theft) (Walker
et al., 2014), and Hurricane Ivan in Mobile, Alabama (for burglary, larceny-theft and
auto theft) (Walker, Sim, & Keys-Mathews, 2012). Some studies have however found
decreasing property crime rates following a disaster. Barsky et al. (2006) noted a
decrease in burglary and theft offences in New Orleans following Hurricane Katrina
whilst Leitner et al. (2011) also observed falling property crime rates across 11 counties
of Louisiana after the same event. Other studies noting a decrease in property crime
post-disaster include Cromwell et al. (1995), Watanabe and Tamura (1995) and Zahran
et al. (2009). Reasons for the mixed results on the impact of natural disasters on property
crime are myriad and are seen to be related to the underlying socio-economic conditions
of each geographic locale (Harper & Frailing, 2012), inter- and intra-migration patterns
(Varano, Schafer, Cancino, Decker, & Greene, 2010), as well as the severity of the
disaster itself (Prelog, 2016).
Interestingly, studies examining the impact of natural disasters on violent crime have
been less forthcoming. Research that has been undertaken has generally shown
a decrease or relative stability in violence post-disaster (see Cromwell et al., 1995;
Lee, 2010; Leitner & Helbich, 2011; Watanabe & Tamura, 1995). One notable type of
violent crime that has received some attention is domestic violence. Zahran et al. (2009)
found a positive relationship between domestic violence and the frequency of hurricanes
in Florida between 1992 and 2005; a finding supported by a number of single incidence
studies (see Enarson, 1999; Fothergill, 1996; Morrow, 1997). In the aftermath of the
Mount Saint Helens ash fall event, Adams and Adams (1984) identified a 46% increase
in domestic violence offences in Othello, Washington whilst LeBeau (2002) highlighted
a rise in police callouts for domestic disputes after Hurricane Hugo in Charlotte,
North Carolina in 1989. Explanations for the reported increase in domestic violence
136 Australian & New Zealand Journal of Criminology 51(1)
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