The monetary cost of offender trajectories: Findings from Queensland (Australia)
| DOI | 10.1177/0004865813503350 |
| Author | Susan Dennison,Carleen Thompson,Christine Smith,Troy Allard,April Chrzanowski,Anna Stewart |
| Date | 01 April 2014 |
| Published date | 01 April 2014 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
Australian & New Zealand
Journal of Criminology
2014, Vol. 47(1) 81–101
!The Author(s) 2013
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DOI: 10.1177/0004865813503350
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Article
The monetary cost of offender
trajectories: Findings from
Queensland (Australia)
Troy Allard
School of Criminology and Criminal Justice, Griffith University,
Queensland, Australia
Anna Stewart
School of Criminology and Criminal Justice, Griffith University,
Queensland, Australia
Christine Smith
Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Griffith University,
Queensland, Australia
Susan Dennison
School of Criminology and Criminal Justice, Griffith University,
Queensland, Australia
April Chrzanowski
School of Criminology and Criminal Justice, Griffith University,
Queensland, Australia
Carleen Thompson
School of Criminology and Criminal Justice, Griffith University,
Queensland, Australia
Abstract
This study assessed the longitudinal costs of offender trajectories in Queensland (Australia)
to provide policymakers with evidence that could be used to promote the use of crime
prevention programs. Few studies have assessed these costs and minimal research has
been conducted outside the United States. The study addressed three research questions:
(1) What are the monetary costs of crime? (2) What is the optimal number of offender
trajectories in an Australian offender cohort? and (3) What are the monetary costs of offi-
cially recorded offending for individuals on different offender trajectories? The Semi-
Parametric Group-based Method (SPGM) was used to determine the number of offender
Corresponding author:
TroyAllard, School of Criminology and Criminal Justice Griffith University, 176 Messines Ridge Road, Mount Gravatt,
Queensland 4122, Australia.
Email: t.allard@griffith.edu.au
trajectories in the Queensland Longitudinal Database. This database included 41,377 individ-
uals who were born in 1983 and 1984 and guilty of offences in Queensland that were
committed when aged 10–25 years old. The costs of crime were assessed using two
approaches. First, criminal justice system costs were estimated based on the number and
type of contacts that individuals had with the criminal justice system as well as the length of
any supervision served. Second, wider social and economic costs were assessed based on
offence type. Results indicated that there were five offender trajectories, including two
chronic, one moderate and two low trajectories. When costs were applied to the offender
trajectories, offenders in the two chronic groups were 4.8% of the cohort but accounted for
41.1% of the total costs. On average, each chronic offender cost between $186,366 and
$262,799 by the time they turned 26 years old, with 60% of the costs accounted for by
the criminal justice system. On average, each chronic offender cost over 20 times more than
offenders in the two low offending groups. These findings provide further evidence for the
potential benefits of implementing interventions that target chronic offenders.
Keywords
Costs of crime, offender trajectories, longitudinal
Introduction
The criminal careers paradigm has been described as one of the most visible areas of
scholarship within criminology (DeLisi and Piquero, 2011). Within this field, studies
have been conducted in many jurisdictions focused on the nature, pattern and correlates
of offending over the life-course (see DeLisi and Piquero, 2011). These studies aim to
improve understanding about how offending develops over the life-course and factors
that can potentially be manipulated to hinder initiation, hasten desistence and reduce
career length (Blumstein et al., 1986; Piquero et al., 1999, 2001). Research examining
these dimensions has been aided by statistical techniques, such as the Semi-Parametric
Group-based Method (SPGM) (Nagin and Land, 1993).
The SPGM identifies different groups, each with their own trajectory, to capture the
variation in offending in the data (Kreuter and Muthe
´n, 2008). In his review of over 80
studies which employed this technique, Piquero (2008) drew four main conclusions.
First, research identifies at least two offender groups: an adolescent-peaked pattern
and a chronic offender pattern. Research also typically identifies a late-onset chronic
group, which begins offending during adolescence and continues offending into adult-
hood. Second, the trajectory method typically identifies between three and five groups,
slightly more in studies using self-reports of offending than official records. Third, a
sample size of greater than 500 provides robust categorisation of groups. Finally, there
tends to be a low-rate group, a high-rate group and a moderate-but-declining group.
While the findings from trajectory studies are clearly important for policy and prac-
tice, understanding the longitudinal cost of different criminal careers may further
improve the usefulness of this research (Cohen et al., 2010a). Assessment of these
costs can be used by advocates and policymakers to determine the potential viability
of crime prevention programs, the benefits of which are unlikely to be seen for some time
82 Australian & New Zealand Journal of Criminology 47(1)
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