TRADE UNION GROWTH
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8543.1977.tb00089.x |
| Date | 01 July 1977 |
| Published date | 01 July 1977 |
British
Journal
of
Industrial
Relations
Vol.
XV
No.
2
REVIEW
ARTICLE
TRADE UNION GROWTH
RAY RICHARDSON*
THIS
bookt is one of
a
projected series on aspects of trade union growth and is
specifically concerned with aggregate patterns of union growth over time, with
particular empirical reference to the U.K., USA., Australia and Sweden.
It
is
short (only
155
pages), lucidly written and has
a
particularly clear exposition of the
relevant econometric problems,
so
that nobody, not even those who are innocent
of
the mysteries of statistical method, need have serious misgivings about being able
to follow the discussion.
The thrust of the book
is
to
seek to explain the year-to-year changes in total
union membership by reference to a number of general influences, notably price
inflation, changes in money wages, unemployment and the size of the potentially
unionisable labour force. The adthors’ own conclusion is that their model is suc-
cessful, in the sense that their equations explain the greater part of union growth
and the explanatory variables they use turn out to have the kind of effect suggested
in the theoretical discussion. My
own
assessment
is
that their theoretical analysis
and empirical work is considerably less successful than they themselves suggest,
but before elaborating on that judgement it is only proper to say that the book is
a
valuable and stimulating work and deserves to be read by those who are interested
in the analysis of trade unions.
In many ways the most interesting chapter in the book is the one discussing
the early, and mostly American, theories of union growth, starting with the
Institutionalists at Wisconsin. The contrast between the fresh and perceptive
insights of pioneers like Commons and many of the recent, rather mechanical
applications of standard analysis is sobering. It is almost
as
if the absence of easily
used (and easily misused) statistical series can be
a
blessing.
The next chapter reviews three more recent and explicitly statistical pieces, by
Hines, Ashenfelter and Pencavel and Sharpe, and leads on to an important chapter
where the authors try
to
build a model of union growth ‘free of various weaknesses
possessed by previous models’. In doing this they wish, in this monograph and in
the others of the series, ‘to integrate into a comprehensive theory the insights
which several disciplines have to offer’. Now it may be that the series as a whole
will achieve just that, but it cannot be said that they have travelled very far
towards their ambitious goal in this book. In my view the theoretical analysis in
this book is shallow and
ad
hoc.
For example, in the discussion of the effect on union growth of price inflation the
authors point to
two
effects, both of which are held
to
suggest a positive relation-
ship between the two variables. First, with money wages constant, higher inflation
reduces real wages thus causing workers to unionise in order
to
defend their
standards of living. Secondly, inflation may imply business prosperity, when
employers ‘may be more prepared‘
to
recognise unions,
so
as
to
avoid industrial
action at
a
particularly damaging time and because wage increases are relatively
easily passed on. Now, both of these arguments may be true but each requires
a
more detailed defence than
is
presented in the book. Thus, why do workers wait for
G.
S.
Bain and
F.
Elsheikh,
Union
Growth
and
theBusiness
Cycle,
Basil Blackwell,
1976,
*
Director of the Centre for Urban Economics, London School
of
Economics.
155
pp.,
€10.00.
279
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