TREND IMPACT ANALYSIS AND SCENARIO WRITING : STRATEGIES FOR THE SPECIFICATION OF DECISION ALTERNATIVES IN EDUCATIONAL PLANNING
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1108/eb009750 |
| Date | 01 February 1976 |
| Pages | 143-161 |
| Published date | 01 February 1976 |
| Author | JAMES F. McNAMARA |
| Subject Matter | Education |
THE JOURNAL
OF
EDUCATIONAL ADMINISTRATION
VOLUME
XIV,
NUMBER
2
OCTOBER,
1976
TREND IMPACT ANALYSIS AND SCENARIO
WRITING : STRATEGIES FOR THE
SPECIFICATION OF DECISION
ALTERNATIVES IN EDUCATIONAL
PLANNING1
JAMES
F.
McNAMARA
Futures research
and
long-range planning
in an
urban school district involve
the use of a
methodology having no direct answers
or
precise rules in terms
of
experimental and design
alternatives. While some design options
can be
found
in
operations research and manage-
ment science, futures research projects in education are more likely to follow the directions
for policy analysis initially suggested
by
Yehezkel Dror
and
re-examined
in
Aaron
Wildavsky. They note
in
policy analysis,
1.
Much attention would
be
paid
to the
political aspects
of
public decision-making
and
public policy-making (instead
of
ignoring
or
condescendingly regarding political
aspects)
...
2.
A
broad conception
of
decision-making and policy-making would be involved (instead
of
viewing
all
decision-making
as
mainly
a
resources allocation)
...
3.
A
main emphasis would
be on
creativity and search for new policy alternatives, with
ex-
plicit attention
to
encouragement
of
innovative thinking
...
4.
There would
be
extensive reliance
on ...
qualitative methods
...
5. There would
be
much more emphasis
on
futuristic thinking
...
6.
The
approach would
be
looser
and
less rigid,
but
nevertheless systematic,
one
which
would recognise
the
complexity
of
means-ends interdependence, the multiplicity
of
rele-
vant criteria
of
decision,
and the
partial
and
tentative nature
of
every analysis
...
(Wildavsky, Aaron, "Rescuing Policy Analysis from PPBS" Public Administration
Review 29. 1969. pp. 189-202. Wildavsky's reference
is to
Dror's "Policy Analysts :
A
New Professional Role
in
Government Service" Public Administration Review.
27.
1967. pp.200-201).
The intent
is to
describe
a
single futures research project conducted
in a
large urban
school district staff development program.
It is
reported here
as a
means
to
outline
a
general approach
to
policy planning that might be used
or
adapted by other administrators
who share
an
interest
in
futures research.
In 1965 two major educational futures research projects were initiated.
Both
are
widely publicised
and
referenced extensively
in the
educational
research literature.
Designing Education
for the
Future
was a
four-year
project involving the co-operation
of
eight state departments of education.
It examined and reported
on
new social, political, economic and technical
forces that would require substantial modification
of
educational
programs and services.2 A similar view was taken by
a
study team who in-
DR. JAMES
F.
McNAMARA
is
Associate Professor
of
Educational Administration,
Teachers College, Columbia University. He is
a
member of the World Future Society and
the
International Society
for
Technology Assessment.
He is
also
a
member
of the
U.C.E.A.
General-Special Education Administration Consortium Task Force
on
Assessing Futuristic
Methods.
144 McNamara
itiated the 1965-1966 Educational Innovation Seminar series at the In-
stitute of Government and Public Affairs, UCLA.3
Due in part to the policy planning models and alternative designs
proposed in these two projects, interest within educational administration
in futures research has increased since
1965.
This interest focuses on two
major concerns. The first deals with the publication of
texts,
monographs
and other forms of instructional materials which are designed to provide
practitioners and professors of education with
a general knowledge
of the
concepts, models and strategies employed in futures research. Most
publications are written with a view toward how these models and
strategies might be used to improve decision-oriented research in
educational organizations.
Included in this domain are the efforts of the 1985 Committee of the
National Conference of Professors of Educational Administration,4 The
University Council for Educational Administration,5 The General-Special
Education Administration Consortium (GSEAC) Task Force on Assess-
ing Futuristic Methods,6 Phi Delta Kappa,7 The Futurism Committee of
the Michigan Association of Professors of Education Administration,8
and the Alternative Futures for Education and Learning Project of
Research for Better Schools.9 Federally supported policy centers at
Syracuse University and the Stanford Research Institute also dis-
seminated several similar publications.
A second and related area of concern deals with the actual
application
of futuristic methods in the education sector. These applications usually
involve the use of one or more models such as time series analysis,
scenario writing, decision matrix analysis, Delphi, cross impact analysis,
trend extrapolation, force analysis, contextual mapping, Monte Carlo
analysis, trend impact matrices, or relevance tree analysis.10
In addition to the wide array of Delphic studies reported in the
educational planning literature,11 applications in this domain include
large-scale projects, such as the Dallas/Ft. Worth Metroplex Project, con-
ducted by the Dallas Independent School District,12 the
1990
Project of the
Future of Education on the Niagara Frontier, conducted by the Western
New York School Development Council;13 and Shane's recent Curriculum
Trend Analysis Project based on interviews with 81 researchers from
various futures institutes and policy centers.14
If we choose to bypass these activities in educational administration, we
can still find a more general interest in futures-oriented inquiry within
other education provinces. Contrary to the opinions of
some,
this interest
is not restricted to those who identify primarily with the educational
research community. Futurism and related issues are popular topics at
various educational conventions and professional meetings. In several in-
stances we find entire i isues of educational periodicals devoted to
futurism.15 Moreover, a wide array of seminars dealing with futures
research, technology assessment, social and technological forecasting, and
futurology are now conducted in colleges of education,16 as well as in other
departments or interdisciplinary programs in liberal arts colleges and
major universities.17
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