Trends in the Rates of Non-Capital Offences among Male Juveniles in New South Wales, 1959–1969
| Author | J. Kraus |
| DOI | 10.1177/000486587000300402 |
| Date | 01 December 1970 |
| Published date | 01 December 1970 |
| Subject Matter | Original Articles |
196 AUST. & N.Z. JOURNAL OF CRIMINOLOGY (Dec., 1970): 3, 4
Trends
In
the Rates of Non-Capital
Offences
among
Male
Juveniles
In
New South
Wales,
1959-1969
J. KRAUS*
THE Commission of legal
and
criminological experts, who conducted in
the
U.S.A. amore comprehensive enquiry
into
crime
and
law enforcement
than
has
ever been conducted in
any
other
country,
had
the
following to say
about
the
study
of criminal
trends
(The
Challenge of Crime in a Free Society,
1967,
p.23):
the
amount
of crime "
...
changes constantly, day
and
night,
month
to month, place to place.
It
is essential
that
society be able to tell
when changes occur
and
what
they
are,
that
it be able to distinguish
normal
ups
and
downs from
long-term
trends.
Whether
the
amount
of crime is
in-
creasing
or
decreasing,
and
by how much, is an
important
question -
for
law
enforcement, for
the
individual citizen who
must
run
the
risk of crime,
and
for
the
official who
must
plan
and
establish prevention
and
control
pro-
grams."
In
spite
of
the
considerable volume of criminological research
in
the
U.S.A.,
and
the
fact
that
national
crime statistics
have
been available since
1930,
the
Commission found no systematic studies of
long-term
crim.e trends.
Consequently,
the
Commission's conclusions regarding such
trends
are
not
only
restricted
in
their
scope
but
also speculative in
their
character. Thus,
in
the
all
important
area
of juvenile delinquency, all
that
the
Commission
has
to
say
about
trends
in
factual
terms is
that
"between
1960
and
1965,
arrests
of persons
under
18 years of age
jumped
52
per
cent
for wilful
homicide, rape, robbery,
aggravated
assault, larceny, burglary
and
motor
vehicle
theft.
During
the
same
period, arrests of persons 18
and
over for
these offences rose only 20
per
cent. This is explained
in
large
part
by
the
disproportionate increase in
the
population
under
18 and, in particular,
the
crime-prone
part
of
that
population -
the
11 to 17-year-old age group
...
considering
other
factors
together
with
the
official statistics,
the
Com-
mission is of
the
opinion
that
juvenile delinquency
has
increased signi-
ficantly
in
recent
years."
(ib.
p.56).
The
absence of formal analyses of crime
trends
is also notable in
the
criminological research of
the
U.K.
and
other
E,uropean
and
non-European
countries.
For
example, a,
recent
comprehensive U.K. study of crime
(McClintock
and
Avison) limits
its
analyses of
trends
to graphic
and
des-
criptive presentations, while
the
available
recent
studies from countries
such
*M.A., Dip. Psych., Dip. Crim.,
Department
of Child
Welfare
and
Social Welfare of
New
South
Wales, Sydney.
AUST. & N.Z. JOURNAL OF CRIMINOLOGY (Dec., 1970): 3, 4 197
as Germany (Harrland, 1967; Potrykus, 1967), Hungary (Szabo, 1967),
Austria (Csaszar, 1967),
Finland
(police reports, 1967) or
Japan
(Higuchi,
1967), rely on descriptive analyses only.
Insofar
as
it
was possible to
ascertain
from literature, to
date
no study was done in Australia which comprised a
systematic formal analysis of long-term
trends
in crime generally,
and
in
juvenile delinquency particularly.
The purpose of
the
present
study
is a formal analysis of
long-term
trends
in juvenile delinquency in New
South
Wales. The analysis will
not
only
permit
the
making
of definite quantifiable
statements
about
the
type
and
the
reality of
the
long-term changes which have been
taking
place in juvenile crime,
but
also will allow,
within
a given
margin
of error,
to
make
predictions
about
such changes,
and
will provide points of
refer-
renee for
the
assessment of
the
significance of
annual
or
other
fluctuations
of juvenile delinquency rates.
METHOD
Sample
The
total
numbers of male juvenile offenders
and
the
numbers
in
the
various categories of offence, for
the
years
1959
to
1969,
were
taken
from
the
annual
reports of
the
Child Welfare
Department
of New
South
Wales.
Reports issued before
1959
could
not
be included in
the
study because differ-
ent
methods were used for
their
compilation
and
presentation from
the
methods used since
1959.
The
numbers of males in New
South
Wales in
the
ten
juvenile age groups
(8 to 17 years), which
are
within
the
jurisdiction of
the
Children's Court,
in
the
years
1959
to
1969,
were
the
1961
and
1966 censuses
and
interpolated
figures supplied to
the
Child Welfare
Department
by
the
Commonwealth
Bureau
of Census
and
Statistics.
Only offenders who were dealt with by
the
Children's Court
under
the
Crimes Act were
taken
into
consideration.
The
types of offence
which
were
selected for
the
study are, except for
thefts
not
classed as larceny, among
the
offences designated
by
the
U.S.
Department
of Justice as
"Index
Crimes"
-
the
seven serious crimes
that
the
FBI considers to be indicative of
the
general crime
trends
in
the
U.S.A.
(The Challenge of Crime in a Free
Society, 1967). <,
rroceaure
Due to
the
fact
that
the
annual
reports of
the
Child Welfare
Department
had
relatively small
numbers
of offenders
in
some of
the
offence categories,
and
because during
the
Ll-year period covered by
the
study
the
categories
used in
the
reports were
not
uniform as a
number
of sub-categories was
introduced, for
the
purpose of analysis offences were classified
into
six
major
types. The relationship between
the
types used in
the
study
and
the
categories used in
the
annual
reports is shown
in
the
table
at
the
top of Page
198.
The
classification "Type. of Offence" includes
all
the
categories used
in
annual
reports
and
additionally
the
category
"Other
Offences" which is
not
shown here.
For
the
purpose of analysis
the
annual
rates
of offences were calculated
per
10,000
rather
than
1000
of
the
relevant population. This was so because
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