A Two‐Decade Test of Product Life Cycle Theory
| Date | 01 December 1993 |
| Author | D. Mercer |
| Published date | 01 December 1993 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8551.1993.tb00063.x |
British
Journal
of
Management,
Vol.
4,269-274 (1993)
Research
Note
A
Two-Decade Test of Product Life Cycle Theory
D.
Mercer
School
of
Management, The
Open
University, Milton Keynes, UK
SUMMARY
The product life cycle (PLC) has represented a central element of marketing theory
for
four decades. Following
its
development in the
195Os,
and
its
subsequent populariza-
tion in the
196Os,
it has remained a stable feature of marketing teaching; despite evidence
of
its
limited applicability and the growing awareness, amongst leading academics at
least, of its flawed nature.
This
paper critically reexamines
its
practical value in the
light of the 20-year history of 929 brands spread across 150 fast-moving consumer
goods (FMCG) markets in the
UK.
The main conclusion is that the ‘life cycle’ of
the brand leaders is indeed more stable, and much longer, than some of the previous
work
might have suggested, and that the PLC would have predicted.
As
a credible
aid to marketing decisions the brand life cycle is, therefore, of little value in the majority
of FMCG markets
-
and cannot justify
its
long-held position as
a
theory that has
general practical applicability across the whole field of marketing.
Background
The product life cycle (PLC) is one
of
the most
quoted, and most frequently taught, elements of
marketing theory. Its influence has also been seen
in
other theories, from new product management
to
portfolio analysis.
The theory has been subject to relatively little
public criticism, with only 20 per cent of 271 papers
published on the subject between 1971 and 1991
undertaking further research into the subject and
only a handful challenging its basic assumptions.
On the other hand, proof
of
the concept has
appeared to be surprisingly difficult to find.
Product Life Cycles
Although the PLC concept was first developed
from the 1950s (Dean, 1950), with a number of
PhD theses published at the end of that decade,
it was in the late 1960s, following the influential
article by Levitt (1965), that much of the definitive
work was undertaken. For example, Cox Jr (1967)
examined 754 ethical drug introductions and found
several forms
of
life cycle, though he was only able
to track 2 per cent
of
these to their ‘death’. Two
years later, Polli and Cook (1969) conducted their
widely quoted survey
of
76 selected product forms
and 37 product classes in the fields of health and
personal care, food and cigarettes. Much of the
work though was anecdotal, or concentrated on
a very limited number of examples.
It was also dogged by problems of definitions.
Perhaps the clearest are provided by Kotler (1991)
who describes a hierarchy starting with the longest
lived cycle, that of the ‘demandtechnology
’
(mar-
ket) life cycle, which contains a succession of ‘prod-
uct form’ (product class) life cycles, each of which
in turn contains a set
of
brands with their own
‘brand life cycles’. This paper concentrates on this
lowest level since this should, as the shortest lived,
show the most marked changes over time.
The article by Dhalla and Yuspeh (1976) was
one
of
the few to offer a counter viewpoint; but
was, again, justified by a limited number
of
exam-
ples. Even
so,
they made the important observation
that
. .
.clearly, the
PLC
is
a
dependent
variable which
1045-3 172/93/040269-06$08.00
0
1993
by
John
Wiley
&
Sons,
Ltd.
Received
24
March 1992
Revised 28 April 1993
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