GOP Holds Solid Leads in Voter Preferences for Another Week; Gallup trends from prior midterm years suggest shifts are still possible.
Byline: Lydia Saad
Synopsis: Republicans lead by 5 percentage points among registered voters and by either 11 or 17 points among likely voters, depending on turnout, in Gallup's tracking of the generic ballot for Congress. Gallup trends from the past four midterms offer no clear guidance on whether those figures are likely to change or hold.
PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup's tracking of the generic ballot for Congress finds Republicans leading Democrats by 5 percentage points among registered voters, 48% to 43%, and by 11- and 17-point margins among likely voters, depending on turnout. This is the third consecutive week the Republicans have led on the measure among registered voters, after two weeks in September when the parties were about tied.
The latest results are from Gallup polling conducted the past two weekends, Oct. 7-10 and Oct. 14-17, and based on interviews with more than 2,700 registered voters and more than 1,900 likely voters.
For Republicans to lead, or even be at parity with Democrats, on the generic congressional ballot indicates they are in a good position to win a majority of House seats in the upcoming elections. This is because of Republicans' typical advantage in voter turnout, which in recent years has given that party an average five-point boost in support on Election Day.
If the elections were held today and roughly 40% of voters turned out -- a rate typical in recent years -- Gallup's Oct. 7-17 polling suggests Republicans would win 56% of the vote -- 8 points greater than their support from registered voters, and 17 points ahead of Democrats, at 39%. If turnout is significantly higher, Republicans would receive 53% of the vote (a 5-point improvement over their registered-voter figure), and the Democrats, 42%.
The likely voter estimates at both turnout levels have been consistent over the past three weeks.
History Offers Mixed Picture of Stability of Voter Preferences in October
With the elections now only two weeks away, the key questions relating to the outcome are whether voters might still change their minds about which party to support, and whether Democrats' motivation to vote will yet surge, enabling that party to narrow the gap among likely voters.
Gallup polling from the prior four midterm elections shows that significant movement can, but does not always, occur in the final month before Election Day. This was most pronounced in 2006, when the Democrats' 23-point early October leads among both registered...
To continue reading
Request your trial