In Tight Race, Both Obama, Romney Have Core Support Groups; Obama's solid support from nonwhites is offset by Romney's advantages within the white vote.
Byline: Frank Newport, Jeffrey M. Jones, and Lydia Saad
Synopsis: President Obama's main electoral strengths are with voters who are nonwhite, nonreligious, single, or postgraduates. Mitt Romney's strengths are with white voters, particularly men, those who are religious, and those 30 and older.
PRINCETON, NJ -- Because the overwhelming majority of nonwhite registered voters in the U.S. vote Democratic -- 77% currently support Barack Obama for president -- likely Republican nominee Mitt Romney must do well among white registered voters in order to offset this advantage. Among non-Hispanic whites, Romney currently leads by 54% to 37%, with 9% undecided.
The findings are based on the first 25 days of Gallup Daily tracking of the general election, from April 11-May 6. Over this period, Obama and Romney were tied, 46% to 46%, in the preferences of the more than 11,000 registered voters interviewed.
Obama currently has the support of 90% of blacks, 68% of Hispanics, and 57% of other races, including Asians. The preferences of these nonwhite voters are fairly uniform by gender, education, religiosity, and other demographic variables.
This is not the case with whites, among whom such demographic differences starkly divide voters in terms of whom they support. Gallup's large sample of more than 9,000 non-Hispanic whites interviewed over the more than three-week period ending May 6 provides a unique opportunity to examine the most important demographic distinctions with a high degree of statistical reliability.
Being "Nonreligious" Makes a Difference
White Americans' degree of religiousness is a major predictor of their vote, with the biggest divergence between those who are at least somewhat religious (66% of white voters in the April 11-May 6 sample) and those who are nonreligious (33%). White voters who are either very or somewhat religious -- based on their self-reports of the importance of religion and church attendance -- prefer Romney over Obama by 62% to 29%. White voters who are classified as nonreligious -- those who do not attend religious services regularly and who say religion is not important in their daily lives -- favor Obama by 54% to 38%.
This is a remarkable divergence of support. Among those who are nonreligious, support for Romney is 16 percentage points lower and support for Obama is 17 points higher than among all white voters.
The basic relationship between religiosity and partisanship in contemporary American political...
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