London Tier 4: Heat map of London’s soaring infection rate shows how cancelling Christmas became unavoidable

Published date21 December 2020
Date21 December 2020
Publication titleMyLondon (England)
On Saturday, December 19, the Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that London with other parts of the South East would be moved to Tier 4.

Under the new hardened tier the Christmas bubbles planned for December 23 to 27 would be cancelled, residents would be ordered to stay home and non-essential shops would once again be forced to close - lockdown 3 in all but name.

For many people in London the announcement was a bitter pill to swallow with many choosing to make a last gasp escape from the city to reach loved ones before the new rules came in.

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However, in the latest data showing the infection rate in London the decision behind the new Tier 4 and the alarm it caused within Government is much easier to understand.

According to the Press Association, which uses daily Government health data, the infection levels in London have increased dramatically and worryingly.

Havering, now the area in England with the second highest infection rate, increased from 513.6 people in 100,000 testing positive for COVID in the seven days to December 9, to 1021.8 in the seven days up to December 16.

And this is a story repeated across London with infection rates doubling in just a week.

Boroughs that once has infection rates below 100 only two weeks ago such as Westminster now have an infection rate above 280.

Croydon's infection rate has risen from 213.3 to 495.7 and Barking and Dagenham's from 387 to 823.8 as just two examples.

On the weekend the Government revealed more details regarding the new variant of COVID-19 that has caused the huge rises in London, with its increased capacity to resist social distancing and other personal protection.

The ability for the strain to infect 70 per cent more effectively was the main drive behind the creation of a Tier 4 with European countries so concerned by the new strain that the UK has effectively been cut off from travelling to large swathes of Europe.

According to the Mayor of London's officer the infection rate for the whole of London sits at 468 cases per 100,000 population based on data between December 9 and 15 -in the previous week the rate was 226.

Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London, also a member of the Government's New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats advisory group NervTag told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "The analysis we've collectively been undertaking in the last week has shown it would be very...

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