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Mexican Drug, Gang Activity Down Ahead of Election; Confidence in government remains low.

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Vincent

Byline: Linda Lyons

Synopsis: Drug and gang activity is down in Mexico ahead of this weekend's presidential election, but Mexicans' confidence in their government remains low and their economic outlook is grim.

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Ahead of Mexico's presidential election this weekend, Gallup surveys suggest Mexicans are seeing some progress on one of the top issues on the campaign trail -- the country's ongoing drug war. Far fewer Mexicans surveyed in late March and early April of this year report gang activity (36%) and drug trafficking (26%) in their neighborhoods than did so when outgoing President Felipe Calderon launched his battle against the drug cartels six years ago.

All three major-party candidates are offering new strategies to end the drug-related violence, which has some U.S. lawmakers nervous about the outcome of Sunday's vote. According to CNN, a Republican congressman last week shared his concerns about Mexico's "impending change in power" with the head of the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration.

Confidence in Government Falls Despite Lower Perceived Drug, Gang Activity

The improvement in reported drug and gang activity hasn't translated into higher confidence in the national government and other institutions, which may not bode well for the ruling National Action Party's candidate Josefina Vazquez Mota. Mexicans' confidence in the national government has declined nearly 10 percentage points since 2007, falling to 33% in early 2012. Additionally, slightly fewer than three in 10 Mexicans (28%) have faith in the judicial system, down from 37% in 2007. Even confidence in the military -- the same forces Calderon employed continuously in the fight against drug cartels -- has flagged slightly to 59% today from 64% in 2007.

Mexicans' Perceptions of Living Standards Slump Dramatically

Mexicans' decreasing confidence in their own economic situations also may not bode well for the National Action Party. Mexicans' outlook on their living standards is the bleakest Gallup has ever recorded, with less than a third (32%) saying their living standards are getting better. Clearly, any post-crisis economic uptick has not reached the majority of...

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